1:20AM 11/29/2020 – RZW Exec

RZW EXEC: STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE DURING P.M. HOURS TODAY… RZW Exec partners, good Sunday morning! There is a concern that a few isolated severe thunderstorms may develop this afternoon into this evening, specifically across our northwest Florida communities. The Storm Prediction Center has added a Level 2 (out of 5) severe weather risk zone for communities along and EAST of a line from Bayou La Batre to Fairhope to Andalusia. This includes places like Pensacola, Milton, Orange Beach, Destin, and Crestview. Communities like Mobile, Atmore, Bay Minette, Brewton, and Evergreen are involved in the lower-end, Level 1 risk zone. The main risk for a few tornadoes and gusty winds in the stronger storms will happen from 11AM to 6PM this evening. This risk will likely end completely by 8PM.

I generally do not send RZW Exec updates for temperature alerts, but please be aware we will have below freezing temperatures in place for many communities locally on Tuesday morning AND on Wednesday morning. Temperatures will be below 32 degrees for 2-4 hours early Tuesday morning with overnight lows projected to be in the upper-20s. Late Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning could feature a hard freeze with 6-10 hours of below freezing temperatures.

SEVERE STORMS, INCLUDING TORNADOES, POSSIBLE LATER TODAY… The severe weather risk for our local area has increased for today, with part of the region now involved in the Level 2 (out of 5) risk zone. Tornadoes and damaging wind gusts in the stronger storms will be possible. Heavy rain will be possible at times throughout the day. The risk for strong to severe storms will be maximized from midday into the afternoon and evening hours. 11AM to 6PM is the 7 hour window when severe weather seems most likely to happen. The tornado risk will likely be greatest in northwest Florida and closer to the coast, generally, with a much lower risk of severe storms farther inland due to a lack of atmospheric instability in those areas. As always, if and when we have tornado warnings, be sure to join us in live, uninterrupted video coverage. After the rain and storms today, skies will clear from west to east on Monday as cold, dry air moves in. All of your Sunday morning forecast details are below.

LEVEL 2 (OUT OF 5) RISK FOR PART OF THE AREA… The risk of severe weather today will be maximized closer to the immediate coast, but a tornado or two may be possible across inland areas as well. This is why the Storm Prediction Center has included several local communities in their Level 2 (out of 5) risk zone. This Level 2 risk zone is in place for the following communities: Pensacola, Orange Beach, Gulf Shores, Dauphin Island, Fairhope, Foley, Magnolia Springs, Elberta, Beulah, Gonzalez, Perdido Key, Molino, Milton, Pace, Berrydale, Munson, Jay, Gulf Breeze, Navarre, Andalusia, Opp, Florala, Crestview, Baker, Holt, Harold, Destin, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Mary Esther, and surrounding areas.

LEVEL 1 RISK ZONE… There is a lower-end, Level 1 (out of 5) severe weather risk in place today for communities generally to the north and west of the Level 2 risk. These are the communities that are less likely to experience severe weather, but a stronger storm or two may be possible. The Level 1 (out of 5) risk zone includes: Mobile, Prichard, Saraland, Satsuma, Bayou La Batre, Citronelle, Mt. Vernon, Bay Minette, Daphne, Spanish Fort, Bay Minette, Tensaw, Perdido, Walnut Hill, Bratt, Century, Flomaton, Atmore, Poarch, Huxford, Brewton, East Brewton, Red Level, Evergreen, Owassa, Repton, Range, Castleberry, Brooklyn, Georgiana, McKenzie, Uriah, and surrounding areas.

NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED OVER INLAND WEST ALABAMA… The air mass in place over much of Washington, Clarke, Monroe, Choctaw, and Wilcox counties is expected to remain fairly stable, thus severe weather seems less likely in these counties. Thunder and lightning could accompany the heavy rain at times in these counties, but generally, the severe weather risk will remain farther to the south and east where the much more unstable air will be.

SEVERE WEATHER TIMING… Heavy rain will be possible at times throughout the day and into the evening. The overall tornado risk will be maximized from 11AM to 6PM, although keep in mind that severe storms may happen a few hours before or after that timeframe. We will likely be able to give an “all clear” from the severe weather risk by 9PM at the latest.

HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED AT TIMES TODAY… In addition to the risk of a few strong to severe storms capable of producing tornadoes and damaging wind gusts, heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding will be a concern. Total rainfall amounts across the region today are expected to be in the 1 to 3 inch range.

MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES TONIGHT… One of the reasons we have a chance of active weather today is because of an approaching cold front from the northwest. This frontal boundary will move across our region overnight, allowing cool, dry, stable air to move in for Monday.

COLD DAYS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY… Clouds will move out on Monday, giving way to clear skies for Tuesday and Wednesday. Since skies will be clear, there won’t be any cloud cover to help insulate the earth and act like a blanket of sorts, thus temperatures will be quite cold. High temperatures Monday through Wednesday will be in the 50s (low-50s on Monday and Tuesday).

BELOW FREEZING TEMPS TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY MORNINGS… The coldest mornings of the next 7 days will almost certainly be on Tuesday and Wednesday. Overnight lows will likely be in the mid- to upper-20s across inland areas of south Alabama with lower-30s likely closer to the immediate coast. Wednesday morning could meet the criteria of a hard freeze, with several hours of below freezing temperatures expected across inland areas. Clear skies are expected Tuesday and Wednesday.

SHOWERS LIKELY LATE IN THE WEEK… There is growing confidence we will have yet another round of rain by Thursday and Friday. No snow or wintry precipitation is in the forecast as temperatures will have warmed a bit compared to earlier in the week, meaning just a cold rain is expected. Temperatures will be in the upper-50s in the afternoon hours by Thursday and Friday with morning lows in the 40s.

TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!

APP ALERTS… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

Have a great Sunday!

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4:00PM 11/24/2020 – RZW Exec

RZW EXEC: FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY… RZW Exec partners, good Tuesday evening! We have had a quiet couple of weeks in our local weather pattern, but that changes tomorrow. There is a low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) severe weather risk in place for much of central and north Alabama. Parts of Clarke, Washington, Monroe, and Butler counties are also involved in this low-end risk zone locally. Showers and thunderstorms should remain fairly scattered in nature on Wednesday and there is a chance some spots may get no rain. There is, however, a chance that some of the storms could be on the strong side in areas farther inland tomorrow afternoon and evening. The main concern will be gusty winds in the stronger storms. The tornado risk is very low, but it is not entirely zero for inland counties.

Please let me know if you have any questions or concerns. Our public post that will debut this evening detailing the low-end risk is below.

FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY; TORNADO RISK LOW BUT NOT ZERO… Rain is set to finally return to our forecast on Wednesday, but along with that chance comes a risk of a few stronger thunderstorms. The main concern in any thunderstorms that can become strong or even marginally severe will be gusty winds capable of knocking down a few trees. The tornado risk is very low on Wednesday, but for inland areas, the tornado risk is not zero. The main risk of stronger storms will happen on Wednesday afternoon into the early evening hours. Rain totals with this event will generally be quite low, with most locales picking up less than one half inch of rain in total. The bigger rain event is slated to happen this weekend as another cold front approaches our area.

LEVEL 1 (OUT OF 5) RISK ZONE FOR INLAND AREAS… The Storm Prediction Center has included several of our inland communities in their low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) severe weather risk zone valid for Wednesday. Right now, parts of Clarke, Monroe, Butler, Washington, Choctaw, Wilcox counties, and areas to the north are included in this low-end risk zone. That includes Thomasville, Grove Hill, Jackson, Coffeeville, Chatom, Millry, Wagerville, Silas, Toxey, Gilbertown, Butler, Camden, Sweet Water, Pine Hill, Forest Home, and points north and west. The remainder of our local area is involved in the “general thunderstorms” zone where widespread severe weather is not expected on Wednesday.

SLIGHTLY INCREASED RISK FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL & NORTH ALABAMA… The greater dynamics and perhaps better combination of shear and instability is set to happen well to our north across parts of north and central Alabama along with parts of Tennessee. A squall line may develop across parts of northern Mississippi and western Tennessee and push eastward into the northern half of Alabama in the afternoon or evening hours. These are the areas that have the slightly higher risk of seeing damaging straight line winds and a tornado or two.

WHAT TO EXPECT – WEDNESDAY… Around sunrise on Wednesday, there could be a few small showers developing close to the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. These areas of rain will gradually spread inland tomorrow morning. Scattered showers and storms will increase in coverage throughout the day. The low-end risk of a few stronger storms will happen in the afternoon and early evening hours.

THANKSGIVING DAY FORECAST… Thursday will be mostly dry across the region with mostly cloudy skies in place. Rain chances on Thanksgiving Day will be around 20%, meaning most of our area should remain dry. There also is a small chance of a few thunderstorms on Thanksgiving Day, but again, most spots will remain dry throughout the day. Severe weather is not expected on Thursday or on Friday. Temperatures will be quite mild for Thanksgiving with most spots peaking in the upper-70s.

SET UP APP ALERTS… We send quite a bit of Low-Level Alerts in our RedZone Weather app. The app is totally free for you! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you see the download links to your respective app store for iOS and for Android devices. Once you have the app downloaded to your smartphone or tablet device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

My next forecast video update will be posted by 7:15AM tomorrow (Wednesday) morning. See you then!

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10:45AM 10/23/2020 – RZW Exec

RZW EXEC: GROWING CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT THIS WEEKEND… RZW Exec partners, good Friday morning! There has been a considerable forecast shift in the future track for what is currently branded as INVEST 95L, an area of low pressure developing in the western Caribbean Sea south of Cuba. This system now has a 60% chance of becoming a tropical storm in the days ahead. As recently as last night, model guidance pointed to a storm that would likely move across Cuba and The Bahamas and race into the open waters of the northern Atlantic Ocean. Overnight, we saw a significant shift in guidance. The National Hurricane Center now suggests a track of this developing system into the Gulf of Mexico seems more likely. We will ramp up our public messaging about this shortly. I will have another RZW Exec update for you tomorrow (Saturday) or sooner, if needed.

TROPICAL STORM MAY FORM THIS WEEKEND IN CARIBBEAN OR SOUTHERN GULF… Talk about a significant forecast change! The National Hurricane Center now suggests there is a 60% chance of a tropical storm forming in the northwest Caribbean Sea or southern Gulf of Mexico in the days ahead with a chance of this system moving north toward the Gulf Coast. It is too early to know IF or when local impacts will happen in Alabama or northwest Florida, although early indications point to higher rain chances for the local area by the end of the upcoming week (approximately one week from now). Sea surface temperatures are significantly cooler in the Gulf of Mexico compared to the peak of hurricane season a few weeks ago, but this system goes to show: We’re not completely done with hurricane season just yet. I know SO many folks (including yours truly!) are very much ready for hurricane season to be over, but we still have a few weeks left. Hang with us in the days ahead and we’ll monitor trends and forecasts and bring you the latest in our RedZone Weather app. More details are below.

60% CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORMATION… The 60% chance of tropical storm formation now in place for INVEST 95L represents a significant forecast change over the last 12-18 hours. Last night, the National Hurricane Center highlighted the area of concern in the Caribbean Sea (INVEST 95L) with a low-end (20-30%) chance of development with the storm likely moving northeast into the Atlantic. A northeasterly motion was also featured this morning at 2AM, which is what we highlighted in our morning video. NOW, a motion toward the Gulf of Mexico is expected due to a fairly abrupt shift in model guidance to the west. All of these changes highlight the continued uncertainty with the exact future of this developing tropical system.

LOCAL IMPACTS TO BE DETERMINED… It is too early to know IF or WHEN local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida will happen due to this developing tropical system. Models this morning, frankly, are “all over the board” with different tracks and intensities for this system going into next week. Impacts, if they happen locally, seem most likely to happen some time from Wednesday through Friday of the upcoming week. Please understand that is a tentative idea, based on the data we have at this moment, and is highly subject to change in the days ahead.

HURRICANE SEASON FATIGUE IS REAL… This is the LAST possible thing that anyone along the Gulf Coast (or really any coastal resident in the Atlantic Basin!) wants to hear after our hyperactive hurricane season so far. I understand that and to be frank, I am more than ready for hurricane season to end. However, just because we are all fatigued of hurricane season does not mean this risk will just “go away.” Thus, I would plead with you to please check in for updates in the days ahead. Hopefully this system will dissipate or just be a rainmaker. We will keep you posted every step of the way.

STORMS LIKELY TO POP UP THIS AFTERNOON… The radar is quiet at the time I am writing this update around 10:30AM. I expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to pop up this afternoon into this evening across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Severe weather is not expected, but there could be cloud-to-ground lightning in the stronger storms and isolated downpours of heavy rain. These areas of rain and storms are not associated with the tropical system, but are instead affiliated with the passing area of low pressure moving across our region tonight. I’ll have radar updates posted as needed in the RedZone Weather app.

APP… Be sure to download our free RedZone Weather app if you haven’t done so already. redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the app for your iOS or Android device. Once you have the app downloaded, be sure to visit the Alerts tab in the lower right corner of the app to select the specific notifications you would like to receive straight from me.

NEXT UPDATE… I will have the next update on this developing system later this evening or sooner, if warranted. I will have plenty more updates coming in the RedZone Weather app in the hours ahead.

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8:10PM 10/4/2020 – RZW Exec

RZW EXEC: TROPICAL STORM DELTA EXPECTED TO FORM ON MONDAY… RZW Exec partners, good Sunday evening! The latest data concerning what the National Hurricane Center has branded as “Potential Tropical Cyclone 26” has me concerned this evening. Forecast models have continually alluded to a potential direct hit or side swipe for our local area by what will likely be Hurricane Delta later this week. Let me be abundantly clear in stating I am not suggesting that a direct hurricane hit will happen locally, although I am concerned that the data has been so consistent today. We’re looking at a situation where rain begins Thursday evening with potential significant wind impacts on Friday into Friday night. In addition to heavy rain, flash flooding, and wind impacts (depending on where the exact center of Delta moves), isolated tornadoes, dangerous storm surge, coastal flooding, and river & creek flooding may become possible. The official NHC forecast (pictured above) calls for Delta to ramp up to a category 2 hurricane late in the forecast period on Friday. While there will be some limiting factors for the storm starting Thursday into Friday (like increasing shear and slightly cooler water temps), that may not matter too much if the storm is quite strong and moving quickly into our area or just to the east or west of our local area. As always, please let me know if you have decision support needs or questions. Our public messaging for tonight is below.

PTC26/DELTA-TO-BE MAY BE A HURRICANE ON APPROACH TO NORTHERN GULF COAST… Potential Tropical Cyclone 26, aka what will likely be Tropical Storm Delta soon, will likely be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico by midweek. There is a growing chance that local impacts in our local area, south Alabama and northwest Florida, will be possible later this week, perhaps on Friday into Saturday. We also note on this Sunday evening that there have been some forecast changes with Tropical Storm Gamma, currently located in the southern Gulf. Gamma may get in on the action too, potentially moving north later this week or this weekend. It is important that all of us across the region keep close tabs on the tropics, especially PTC26/Delta-to-be.

A PERSONAL NOTE ABOUT HURRICANE SALLY… Just keeping it real, I totally understand and realize that this is the LAST thing that many of you want to hear after the devastation caused by Hurricane Sally only 18 days ago. That is less than 3 weeks ago, and here we are looking at a situation where another hurricane may make a run at the northern Gulf Coast. I am tired of it, you are tired of it, we’re all tired of it. We’re tired of COVID, we’re tired of endless politics, and we’re tired of hurricane season. I get it, I promise. However, it is absolutely critical that we monitor these two tropical systems in the days ahead as unfortunately, there could be more significant impacts upcoming. The Atlantic Hurricane Season WILL end soon, but we’ve got to get through this week and this upcoming weekend before we see quieter conditions (hopefully).

POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS FROM PTC26/DELTA-TO-BE… The potential impacts from PTC26/Delta-to-be would likely happen in south Alabama and northwest Florida would likely happen Friday into Saturday IF the storm indeed approaches our area or passes just to our west (thus putting our area on the volatile eastern side). Coastal impacts may begin as early as Thursday evening. Specific local impacts will largely depend on the exact future track of this storm, but there is little doubt that heavy rain will be a concern. Flash flooding and potentially river and creek flooding could become a concern. Isolated tornadoes will be possible. The wind impacts will be largely dependent on exactly where the center of the storm goes, but keep in mind that our local area IS in the “cone of uncertainty” even 5 days out, thus it is possible that we could have a direct hit from the center of what could be Hurricane Delta at that point. That is NOT a certainty at this point by any stretch, but it is a possibility and one that we all should be preparing for in the days ahead. Please check back with me on Monday and Tuesday for new information as forecast changes are expected.

HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR NORTHERN GULF COAST BY TUESDAY… A Hurricane Watch is in effect for parts of Cuba (Pinar del Rio and Artemisa) and the Isle of Youth. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Cayman Islands including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Cuban province of La Habana. A Hurricane Watch or Tropical Storm Watch will likely be needed for parts of the northern Gulf Coast here in the U.S. tomorrow (Monday) or on Tuesday.

FORECAST CHANGES FOR TROPICAL STORM GAMMA… Tropical Storm Gamma is located in the southern Gulf of Mexico on this Sunday evening with the center of the storm being about 170 miles north of Cozumel, Mexico. Gamma is drifting erratically around the southern Gulf, but at this moment, the storm is moving east-northeast at about 3 mph. NHC continues to indicate that a large subtropical ridge of high pressure will build in and push Gamma to the west starting tomorrow (Monday). We note that the long-term prognosis for Tropical Storm Gamma has changed a bit today, with the general model consensus now suggesting a sudden jolt to the north in about 5-6 days. That means that while PTC16/Delta (which will likely be a strong tropical storm or hurricane) is in the central and northern Gulf, Gamma may be in the Bay of Campeche ALSO getting set to move north. It should be emphasized that long-term forecast idea is highly uncertain and we need to get more data in over the next 24-48 hours to have a better idea of where Gamma will ultimately end up.

SET UP APP ALERTS… We send quite a bit of Low-Level Alerts in our RedZone Weather app. The app is totally free for you! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you see the download links to your respective app store for iOS and for Android devices. Once you have the app downloaded to your smartphone or tablet device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

NEXT UPDATE… I will have your next highly detailed video and longer form text discussion posted by 7:15AM on Monday. Have a good Sunday evening!

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7:45PM 10/3/2020 – RZW Exec

RZW EXEC: TROPICAL STORM LIKELY TO BE SOUTH OF US BY MIDWEEK… RZW Exec partners, I hope each of you are having a nice Saturday evening. There is now a high (70%) chance that a tropical storm will develop in the northwest Caribbean Sea (totally separate from ongoing Tropical Storm Gamma) in the days ahead. This new tropical storm will likely be in the south-central Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday of the upcoming week. It is far too early to know if impacts will happen in south Alabama and northwest Florida because of this developing storm, but that IS a possibility based on some of the major global models. Our detailed post (below) outlines what we know and what we do not know on this Saturday evening. I will have another RZW Exec update on this developing situation on Sunday. Please let me know if you have any questions.

TROPICAL STORM LIKELY TO BE IN CENTRAL GULF BY MIDWEEK… There will likely be a tropical storm just to our south in the south-central Gulf of Mexico by the middle part of the upcoming week. The National Hurricane Center has upped the odds of development for this system to 70%. This developing storm is totally separate from Tropical Storm Gamma, which is currently centered inland over the northeastern corner of the Yucatan Peninsula. Gamma will not be a concern for us locally anytime soon (if ever), but this other developing storm could be a different story. While it remains too early to know the exact future track of this developing storm, we note that some of the major global models show a weak tropical storm moving north toward Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, or northwest Florida. All of our Saturday evening forecast notes are below.

70% CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPING IN CARIBBEAN… There is now a 70% chance that the tropical disturbance currently situated in the central Caribbean Sea will become a tropical storm over the next 5 days. The system will likely develop near or just northwest of Jamaica in the northwest Caribbean Sea. Where the exact low-level center of circulation develops could tell us quite a bit about the future track of the storm. If the low-level center develops on the eastern flank of the development probability zone and hugs the Cuban coastline for a few days as it treks northwest, the system may emerge as a weaker storm in the Gulf of Mexico early next week. The Florida Keys may have impacts from this developing storm under this scenario. On the contrary, if the low-level center forms a bit farther west, land interaction with Cuba may not be as much of a hinderance and the storm could be stronger when it moves into the Gulf.

LOCAL COASTAL IMPACTS MAY BECOME POSSIBLE BY END OF NEXT WEEK… Let me vehemently emphasize on this Saturday evening that we DO NOT KNOW exactly where this developing storm will go. Could it be a potential issue for our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida? YES, it absolutely could, especially in terms of coastal impacts. On the flip side, there IS a significant chance we won’t ever deal with any significant impacts from this developing storm at all. It simply is too early to know specifics, but being that impacts will be possible, this means we all need to keep an eye on this storm in the days ahead. Be sure to check back with me for updates on Sunday and into early next week!

TROPICAL STORM GAMMA OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA… Tropical Storm Gamma is located over the northeastern corner of Mexico near Cancun and Cozumel this evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph with minimum central pressure at 990 millibars. Gamma is moving northwest at 8 mph. The center of the storm is expected to move into the far southern Gulf of Mexico tomorrow (Sunday) morning before stalling out for a day or so. After that, Gamma will likely be pushed southwest into the Bay of Campeche where it will likely not move very much at all. This storm has already been a prolific rainmaker for northeastern Mexico on the Yucatan Peninsula. More rain and flash flooding issues are expected there in the days ahead. Gamma will not be an issue for our local area in the next 5 days, however.

GAMMA INTERACTION WITH OTHER TROPICAL STORM POSSIBLE… Thinking back to several weeks ago, there was a huge interest in a potential Fujiwhara interaction between Hurricane Laura and Hurricane Marco. That never really happened as Marco faded away and Laura ended up being a massive, powerful, category 4 hurricane that slammed into southwest Louisiana. Some model guidance does suggest that Gamma and this developing storm (likely Delta-to-be) could potentially interact with one another next week. This is more of a curiosity than anything else at this point, but the ramifications are that Gamma may act to swing Delta-to-be a bit farther west. These storms likely would not merge since they would be similar in strength during their Fujiwhara interaction, and no, these storms would not come together to form a “superstorm.” I had that question more than you would like to believe during the Laura/Marco scenario a few weeks ago. The “superstorm merger” idea is not realistic.

HIGH CONFIDENCE: DEVELOPING STORM, IMPACTS POSSIBLE FOR CUBA… Just to recap what there is HIGH confidence in this evening: A tropical storm will likely develop in the western Caribbean Sea near or south of the southern coastline of Cuba. This storm will likely emerge into the far southern Gulf of Mexico some time early next week.

VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE: GULF OF MEXICO TRACK… What we simply cannot know this far out is where the developing storm will ultimately end up. One good thing working in our favor is that Hurricane Sally significantly cooled the sea surface temperature of the northern Gulf of Mexico. The prolific rainfall combined with the storm’s slow movement mean water temperatures are not nearly as supportive for a strong hurricane at this point. It remains to be seen whether this storm can even reach the northern Gulf. Something to watch in the days ahead.

MOSTLY SUNNY, NICE SUNDAY LOCALLY… Skies will remain mostly sunny on Sunday across south Alabama and northwest Florida. High temperatures will peak near 80 degrees in most spots. There could be a few passing clouds, especially across northwest Florida and near the Alabama beaches. These clouds are actually streaming northeast along an old frontal boundary that extends southwest to Tropical Storm Gamma. Again, Gamma will not be a concern for the local area anytime soon (if ever). The bigger concern is definitely the developing tropical disturbance approaching Jamaica in the Caribbean Sea.

NEXT NAMED STORM: DELTA… We have been naming tropical storms from the Greek Alphabet over the last few weeks since we ran out of the standard English alphabetical list for the 2020 season. Subtropical Storm Alpha was the first Greek-named storm. It moved into Portugal and Spain a few weeks ago. Tropical Storm Beta developed in the Gulf of Mexico and moved into Texas before its remnants moved near and just west of our local area. Gamma is over the Yucatan Peninsula now. The next name in the Greek Alphabet is Delta. Beyond Delta, the following names would be Epsilon and Zeta.

APP ALERTS… Many updates will be posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.

NEXT UPDATE… I will have your next highly detailed video and longer form text discussion posted tomorrow (Sunday) afternoon. Enjoy the ongoing college football games tonight. Have a great Saturday evening!

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