FORECAST ON TRACK: LOW IMPACT EVENT LOCALLY… RZW Exec partners, good Friday evening. The forecast for Tropical Storm Nestor remains right on track. Here are the headlines for Nestor:

1) Heavy rain will be possible locally this evening into Saturday morning, particularly in communities along, south, and east of Interstate 65. Rain totals will be greatest in parts of Okaloosa and southern Santa Rosa counties where rain has been ongoing all day so far. You can see in the radar image above, captured at 5:01PM, that scattered showers continue across our region.

2) The tornado risk across south Alabama and our 3 northwest Florida counties (Escambia, Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa) remains at or near zero. There will be a risk of isolated tornadoes in the Florida Panhandle east of a line from Chipley to Santa Rosa Beach overnight. This includes places like Panama City, Marianna, Port Saint Joe, and Mexico Beach. Again, basically no tornado risk for our local area.

3) Gusty winds will be possible at the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches (20-30 mph gusts) through Saturday morning. We note the tropical storm warning has been cancelled for all of Mobile, Baldwin, and Escambia (FL) counties. A Tropical Storm Warning continues only at the immediate coastline for Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, and Walton counties and points east in the Florida Panhandle.

4) Flash flooding is not expected to be a major issue locally. Rain totals will be in the 1-2” range with this event, meaning beneficial, drought-alleviating rain. Good news!

5) In summary, we will have some rain tonight and on Saturday locally, but major issues are not expected.

MONDAY STORMS… The Storm Prediction Center has modified the convective outlook for Monday and it’s good news for much of our local area. The overall threat region has clearly shifted farther to the north where the better combination of atmospheric shear, instability, and moisture will be. I expect SPC to introduce a lower-end, Level 1 (out of 5) marginal risk for Monday in future updates. We still aren’t completely “out of the woods” with this event, but I am encouraged by trends today. Have a good weekend and let me know if you need any decision support related to weather.

SEVERE WEATHER SETUP ON MONDAY… RZW Exec members, we have a potentially significant round of strong to severe storms set to develop across the Deep South on Monday, October 21. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a pretty uncommon Day 5 “slight risk zone.” These Level 2/slight risk zones are common in the Days 1-3 range, but are uncommon 5 days out. We will need to be on guard for the potential for tornadoes on Monday. Let’s get through this weak tropical storm tomorrow and Saturday, then we will really start focusing on the tornado potential Monday. Here is the post we will debut publicly shortly. As always (even this weekend!), let me know if you have decision support needs. Thanks for your continued support.

SEVERE WEATHER EVENT POSSIBLE MONDAY… This is totally separate from the tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico! The Storm Prediction Center has outlined much of Alabama, Mississippi, eastern Louisiana, and northwest Florida in their Level 2 (out of 5) risk zone valid for Monday, October 21. This means that isolated severe storms, including a few tornadoes, will become possible Monday ahead of an advancing strong cold front. The entirety of south Alabama and northwest Florida is included in this risk zone, meaning now is the time to make sure that you’re ready for this severe weather potential AND the peak of our secondary severe weather season (which typically begins around November 1 and lasts through December). We need to get through the tropical storm on Friday into Saturday before we really start focusing on this event, but I want you to have an early “heads up” and be thinking about where you’ll be on Monday in case tornadoes become more likely.

MODEL AGREEMENT IS NOTABLY HIGH… This is a severe weather risk that the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has outlooked five days out, meaning model agreement is high and confidence is growing that we will have at least isolated severe storms. We note that early indications point to the potential for all severe weather hazards (isolated tornadoes, damaging winds, and perhaps large hail in the more discrete, isolated storms). SPC even notes the potential for supercell thunderstorm development in their discussion today. All of this should be a reminder that we need to keep close tabs on this event as it approaches. I’ll be working this weekend to bring you the very latest in the RedZone Weather app.

TELL FRIENDS TO BE INFORMED… We all have friends and family members (even yours truly!) that aren’t as “weather aware” as some of us. Especially as we get closer to this first potentially significant severe weather potential of our fall season, please join me in trying to help get the word out about the potential for severe weather, including tornadoes. This is the type of messaging we really want to push during the upcoming year: MOST folks are able to get tornado warnings, but a big chunk of folks that get the warnings don’t do anything about them. We encourage everyone to take proper tornado warning precautions if your area goes under a tornado warning.

PTC16/NESTOR UPDATE SOON… I am in the process of getting ready for our live video update discussing Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 (aka what will be Tropical Storm Nestor). We will start the live video by 8:30PM at the latest.

APP ALERTS… Be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app (redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download) and set up your customized alerts. Once you have the RZW app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner), then tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the specific alerts you would like to receive. We have a solution for everyone – folks that want a lot of information and folks that may only want the important, rare alerts. Check out details in the Alerts tab today!

See you in the live video soon!

PTC16/NESTOR TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA… RZW Exec members, good Thursday evening. I have just finished a highly detailed forecast analysis concerning Potential Tropical Cyclone 16, aka what will likely become Tropical Storm Nestor in the hours ahead. The big headlines for our local area (south Alabama and northwest Florida) remain: 1) This will be a good, soaking rain event late Friday into Saturday for our region. 2 to 4 inches of rainfall in total will be possible, with the greater amounts near the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. 2) The tornado risk remains very low, if not zero, in most spots locally as this system approaches. 3) Significant wind impacts are not expected across our inland areas. There could be gusty (30-50 mph) winds near the immediate coastline. Please see the highly detailed information below that I will be posting publicly shortly. Below is a map of the projected rainfall amounts for the next 3 days. As always, please let me know if you have any questions or concerns!

*EXTREMELY DETAILED* LOOK AT LOCAL PTC16/NESTOR IMPACTS… Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 continues to develop in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico as of 4:28PM on Thursday. The system is expected to become Tropical Storm (or Subtropical Storm) Nestor in the hours ahead. An Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance (Hurricane Hunter) aircraft is currently investigating the system to see if a low-level circulation center has formed. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for our entire local coastline as gusty winds may happen late Friday into Saturday as PTC16/Nestor approaches from the southwest. This will mostly be a rainmaker for south Alabama and northwest Florida and not much else, although gusty winds and coastal flooding will be possible at the immediate beach zones. This is a long, detailed post with an area-by-area analysis of what you can expect because of this developing tropical storm.

4PM THURSDAY ADVISORY… Maximum winds are at 40mph, meaning the system will take the name “Nestor” once a low-level circulation center forms. Further strengthening is anticipated in the hours ahead and PTC16/Nestor will likely be packing maximum sustained winds of 50-60 mph once it makes landfall in the Florida Panhandle late Friday or Saturday. 25.4° N and 86.4° W is where the center of circulation is located as of 4PM. That is 570 miles southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River in southern Louisiana. Movement continues to be north-northeast at 9 mph. The system is expected to rapidly move toward the northern Gulf Coast in the hours ahead.

THURSDAY EARLY EVENING DISCUSSION ABOUT LOCAL IMPACTS… Heavy rain will become increasingly likely on Friday afternoon and evening, particularly across coastal counties. Rain will spread inland throughout the evening. There is some uncertainty regarding the timing of how quickly rain will move inland. This, obviously, has big ramifications for the high school football games that are scheduled for Friday evening. The good news is we’re not expecting tornadoes or high winds in our local area on Friday evening. There is a high chance that the center of PTC16/Nestor remains to the southeast of our local area as it approaches the Florida Panhandle on Friday, meaning the more volatile east side of the system would remain to our east. Thus, confidence is high that tornadoes and high winds won’t be an issue for our area unless significant forecast track changes happen. That is not expected to happen at this time. Gusty (30-50 mph) winds will be possible at the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches Friday evening into Saturday. Wind impacts are not expected across inland areas at this time, but there will be a breeze from the east on Friday into Saturday. Confidence is high that rain amounts will be highest south and east of Interstate 65 on Friday into Saturday where 2-3” of rain in total could happen. This is a GOOD thing as this will help to alleviate drought conditions.

REMINDER: TROPICAL VS. SUBTROPICAL STORM… The best analogy I can give you about the differences in a tropical storm versus a subtropical storm involves vehicles. Think of a tropical storm as a Toyota RAV4. (That is what I drive.) A normal car gets you where you’re going by burning gasoline. Think of a subtropical storm as a hybrid Toyota RAV4. A hybrid vehicle uses additional technology to get better fuel economy, but it is still a car. Both tropical and subtropical storms have pretty much the SAME impacts for coastal areas: Heavy rain, gusty winds, and coastal flooding. The difference is tropical systems have a pure warm core center, while subtropical storms generally don’t (at least at first). It’s a super technical definition, but the big takeaway I want you to remember is that IMPACTS are the same!

COUNTY-BY-COUNTY FORECAST…

The following county-by-county forecasts are based on the CURRENT projected path of PTC16/Nestor, showing a landfall as a moderate tropical storm near Panama City, Florida on Saturday morning. Future advisories may cause the following impacts to have to be adjusted upward or downward, depending on the exact track of the storm. In addition, please see the specific area forecasts below the county-by-county analysis below.

OKALOOSA COUNTY, FL…

Locations: Destin, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Mary Esther, Wright, VPS, Eglin AFB, Crestview, Deerland, Campton, Auburn (FL), Baker, Holt, Milligan, Laurel Hill.

Wind Speed: 35-55mph winds possible, with gusts up to 65mph. Higher winds likely near the immediate beaches and along Choctawhatchee Bay. Wind speeds likely to be substantially less in inland communities. Areas near Fort Walton Beach and Destin may have slightly higher wind gusts, near 45-65mph.

Timing: High wind gusts could begin as early as 9PM Friday and extend to Noon Saturday. Core risk time will be Midnight to 8AM Saturday.

Rain: 2-5”, with the greater rain amounts likely happening near Destin, Fort Walton Beach, and Niceville.

Tornado Risk: Low.

Official Products: Tropical Storm Warning.

SANTA ROSA COUNTY, FL…

Locations: Navarre, Jay, Milton, Pace, Gulf Breeze, Harold, Whiting Field, Chumuckla, New York, Brownsdale, Berrydale, Munson, Fidelis, McClellan, Mulat, Bagdad, Pine Bluff, Avalon Beach, Garcon Point, Whitfield, Allentown.

Wind Speed: 30-50mph winds possible, with gusts up to 60mph. Higher winds likely near the immediate beaches and along the bays. Wind speeds likely to be substantially less in inland communities. Areas near Gulf Breeze and Navarre may have slightly higher wind gusts, near 40-60mph.

Timing: High wind gusts could begin as early as 9PM Friday and extend to Noon Saturday. Core risk time will be Midnight to 8AM Saturday.

Rain: 2-4”, with the greater rain amounts likely happening near Gulf Breeze and Navarre.

Tornado Risk: Low.

Official Products: Tropical Storm Warning.

ESCAMBIA COUNTY, FL…

Locations: Pensacola, Pensacola Beach, Perdido Key, Warrington, Myrtle Grove, Molino, Walnut Hill, Bratt, Century, Ensley, Gonzalez, Cantonment, Quintette, McDavid.

Wind Speed: 25-45mph winds possible, with gusts up to 55mph. Higher winds likely near the immediate beaches and along the bays. Wind speeds likely to be substantially less in inland communities. Areas near Pensacola Beach may have slightly higher wind gusts, near 40-60mph.

Rain: 2-4”, with the greater rain amounts likely happening near Pensacola, Warrington, Perdido Key, and Pensacola Beach.

Tornado Risk: Low.

Official Products: Tropical Storm Warning.

BALDWIN COUNTY, AL…

Locations: Daphne, Fairhope, Spanish Fort, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Fort Morgan, Magnolia Springs, Foley, Elberta, Elsanor, Robertsdale, Summerdale, Silverhill, Montrose, Loxley, Stapleton, Bay Minette, Stockton, Rabun, Perdido, Tensaw, Point Clear.

Wind Speed: 20-40mph winds possible. Higher winds likely near the immediate beaches and along the bays. Wind speeds likely to be substantially less in inland communities. Areas near Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, and Fort Morgan may have slightly higher wind gusts, near 30-40mph.

Rain: 2-4”, with the greater rain amounts likely happening near Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, and Fort Morgan.

Tornado Risk: Very Low.

Official Products: Tropical Storm Warning for areas south of Interstate 10.

MOBILE COUNTY, AL…

Locations: Mobile, Prichard, Citronelle, Mt. Vernon, Creola, Satsuma, Saraland, Calvert, Wilmer, West Mobile, Bayou La Batre, Coden, Alabama Port, Dauphin Island, Theodore, Crichton, Tanner Williams, Tillmans Corner, Chunchula, Grand Bay.

Wind Speed: 20-40mph winds possible. Higher winds likely near the immediate beaches and along the bays. Wind speeds likely to be substantially less in inland communities. Areas near Bayou La Batre, Coden, and Dauphin Island may have slightly higher wind gusts, near 30-40mph.

Rain: 2-3”, with the greater rain amounts likely happening near Bayou La Batre, Coden, and Dauphin Island.

Tornado Risk: Very Low.

Official Products: Tropical Storm Warning for areas south of Interstate 10.

COVINGTON COUNTY, AL…

Locations: Andalusia, Opp, Florala, Rose Hill, Onycha, Red Oak, Green Bay, Straughn, Red Level, Gantt, Clearview, Carolina, Pleasant Home, Wing, Sanford, Libertyville, Eoda, Horn Hill, Lockhart, River Falls, Loango, and Fairfield.

Wind Speed: 20-30mph wind gusts possible at times. Higher winds likely to happen in the southeastern part of the county near Florala. Wind speeds likely to be less in NW part of county near Red Level.

Rain: 1-2”, with the greater rain amounts likely happening near Florala and Wing.

Tornado Risk: Very Low.

ESCAMBIA (AL), CONECUH, BUTLER, MONROE, CLARKE, WASHINGTON, WILCOX, AND CHOCTAW COUNTIES…

Locations: Brewton, East Brewton, Atmore, Flomaton, Riverview, Poarch, Huxford, Wallace, Barnett Crossroads, Pineview, Wawbeek, Canoe, Nokomis, Appleton, Kirkland, Dixie, Roberts, Damascus, Pollard/McCall, Evergreen, Castleberry, Owassa, Repton, Lenox, Range, Burnt Corn, Lyeffion, Centerville, Johnsonville, Brooklyn, Paul, Melrose, Old Sparta, Jay Villa, Belleville, Greenville, Georgiana, Chapman, Bolling, Grace, Garland, Oaky Streak, Daisy, Halso Mill, Starlington, Forest Home, Monroeville, Excel, Uriah, Frisco City, Megargal, Mineola, Chrysler, Goodway, Peterman, Tunnel Springs, Beatrice, Riley Crossing, Perdue Hill, Mexia, Scratch Ankle, Hybart, Franklin, Eliska, Thomasville, Grove Hill, Jackson, Coffeeville, Fulton, Carlton, Gainestown, Gosport, Whatley, Scyrene, Springfield, Chilton, Tallahatta Springs, Bashi, Woods Bluff, Campbell, Zimco, Toddtown, Salitpa, Suggsville, Alma, Dickinson, West Bend, Winn, Walker Springs, Chatom, Leroy, McIntosh, Millry, Deer Park, Vinegar Bend, Fruitdale, Yellow Pine, Copeland, Yarbo, Jordan, Bigbee, St. Stephens, Tibbie, Sims Chapel, Sunflower, Malcolm, Camden, Pine Hill, Oak Hill, Millers Ferry, Butler, Needham, Toxey, Pennington, Silas, and Gilbertown.

Wind Speed: Breezy conditions are expected with winds of 10-20 mph at times. High winds and wind impacts are currently not anticipated in these inland areas.

Rain: 1-3”, with the greater rain amounts farther to the south and lesser rain amounts farther to the north.

Tornado Risk: Very Low, if not zero in most spots.

WIREGRASS & SOUTHEAST ALABAMA…

Locations: Dothan, Enterprise, Elba, Geneva, Abbeville, Ozark, Daleville, Cottonwood, Samson, Coffee Springs, and surrounding areas.

Wind Speed: Wind Speed: 20-30mph wind gusts possible at times. Higher winds likely to happen in the southeastern part of the region near Dothan and Cottonwood in Houston County. Wind speeds likely to be less in NW part of the region near Elba.

Rain: 1-3”, with the greater rain amounts farther to the south and lesser rain amounts farther to the north.

Tornado Risk: Very Low.

FLORIDA PANHANDLE (WALTON COUNTY & EASTWARD)…

Locations: Panama City, Port St. Joe, Marianna, Blountstown, Wewahitchka, Freeport, Bonifay, Ponce De Leon, Santa Rosa Beach, Seaside, Rosemary Beach, Lynn Haven, Springfield, Parker, Altha, and surrounding areas.

Wind Speed: 40-60mph winds possible, with gusts up to 65mph. Higher winds likely near the immediate beaches and along area bays. Wind speeds likely to be less in inland communities. Areas near Panama City, Port St. Joe, and Mexico Beach may have slightly higher wind gusts, near 50-65mph.

Timing: High wind gusts could begin as early as 9PM Friday and extend to Noon Saturday. Core risk time will be Midnight to 8AM Saturday, based on the latest forecast data as of 4PM Thursday.

Rain: 2-5”, with the greater rain amounts likely happening near the immediate beaches.

Tornado Risk: Tornadoes will be possible along and east of the center of circulation where PTC16/Nestor moves onshore. This could include Bay, Gulf, Calhoun counties, and points east. Be ready for possible tornado warnings in these areas.

Official Products: Tropical Storm Warning for the entirety of this stretch of coastline. There is a Storm Surge Warning in effect for areas at and east of Indian Pass, FL.

APP… Download the RedZone Weather app to continue to receive our constant updates. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.

More updates will be posted this evening! Let me know if you have any questions.

TROPICAL STORM PROBABLY WILL DEVELOP IN GULF SOON… RZW Exec members, good Wednesday afternoon! There is a growing chance that we will have a tropical storm develop in the western Gulf of Mexico in the next 48 hours. Regardless of if formal development happens, this will be a rainmaker for south Alabama and northwest Florida. Other significant impacts are less certain. There is a chance (depending on the exact track) that we will have to be concerned with a few isolated tornadoes and gusty winds near the beach zones. We can say with high confidence that this will NOT be a big deal, in terms of hazardous wind impacts, for inland areas.

Please let me know if you have any questions or need decision support for this event. Thank you for your time and for your support!

Below is the public post that will debut imminently in the public-facing home/refresh tab of the RZWeather app.

INCREASING CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IN GULF; LOCAL IMPACTS LIKELY… Odds are increasing that a tropical or subtropical storm will form in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico in or near the Bay of Campeche in the next few days. The National Hurricane Center suggests there is now a 50% chance of this happening through Saturday. Regardless of if formal development happens, this points to increased rain chances for parts of south Alabama and northwest Florida this weekend into early next week.

POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS IN SOUTH ALABAMA & NW FLORIDA… Regardless of if this tropical disturbance acquires formal tropical or subtropical characteristics, heavy rain will be likely at times this weekend across our area. The greater chances of rain will clearly happen closer to the immediate Alabama and northwest Florida beach zones. Depending on the exact track of this developing system, there also could be gusty (30-50mph) winds at the immediate coastal areas, isolated tornadoes across the region, and potentially isolated instances of flash flooding. Significant wind issues inland are not expected, as this will likely be a fairly “weak” tropical/subtropical storm. “Weak” is subjective, and there still could be significant impacts closer to the coast, however.

LOCAL IMPACTS WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON TRACK… Most of the model guidance late last evening and this morning suggests that there is a growing chance that the center of this tropical system will either move over our area from southwest to northeast OR perhaps make landfall to our east in the Florida Panhandle or Big Bend region. It is too early to know exactly where this system will track, but that will determine quite a bit about what impacts any given area experiences. Stay tuned over the next few days as we continue to monitor this system.

INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TROPICAL STORM… Anytime we have a tropical system in one of the peak hurricane season months in the Gulf, there is always a chance we could have some surprises in store. Long-time viewers and readers remember the rapid intensification that happened with Hurricane Michael (up to category 5 status right before landfall). Hurricane Opal was also a rapidly intensifying October hurricane. The good news is I am NOT seeing anything to suggest that this system will become a hurricane before landfall. Could that change? Yes, and that’s why we monitor the tropics so intently. However, confidence remains high that this will be a weak or moderate tropical storm at the time of landfall in a few days. The high-end scenario points to a moderate tropical storm. The low-end scenario points to a tropical disturbance with quite a bit of rainfall.

CHILLY FOR TROY VS. SOUTH ALABAMA GAME TONIGHT… The South Alabama Jaguars travel to Troy to take on the Troy Trojans in football on this Wednesday evening. The game kicks off at 7PM CDT and will be televised nationally on ESPN2. Most of the rain and storms will have long moved out of our region to the south into the Gulf of Mexico by that point. I expect the game to be dry with chilly temperatures in place! Kickoff temperatures will be in the 61-64° range, although the wind out of the northwest will probably make the air temperature feel a bit colder than it actually is. Temperatures will decline into the 50s by the end of the game.

SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY… The cold front moving by our region today will pave the way for winds out of the northwest at 5-10mph this evening. This will be a cool, dry wind that will rapidly lower humidity levels and temperatures. Some spots north of U.S. Highway 84 on Thursday morning may be in the upper-40s! I expect most of our area to be in the 50s for overnight lows both on Thursday and Friday mornings. High temperatures Thursday and Friday will be in the 70s.

FRIDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL FORECAST… This forecast will greatly depend on the future track of the tropical system discussed above. If we get more rain and are on the eastern side of the developing area of low pressure (whether it is a tropical storm or not), there is a chance we may have to increase rain chances for the Friday night football games. If, however, we’re on the western side of the system, that would point to a potentially drier solution. For now, we’ll call it a 20-30% chance of showers and storms Friday evening with temperatures in the 65-70° range.

APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

I’ll have another update about this developing tropical feature later this evening. Before that, if you want shorter, more frequent updates, join me in the RedZone Weather app for the latest. Have a nice Wednesday evening!

RZW Exec partners, good evening! It’s been quite some time since our local area has had any formal severe weather risk. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has introduced a low-end, marginal, Level 1 (out of 5) risk zone that includes much of our area valid for tomorrow (Tuesday, October 15). This means that most spots will not have any severe weather issues, but a rogue severe storm or two cannot be ruled out. The overall tornado risk with this system will remain quite low, but not exactly zero for our inland communities. This will be a beneficial rainmaker for much of our area. Let’s look at details…

HEAVY RAIN & STORMS POSSIBLE AT TIMES ON TUESDAY… The big headline for this weather system remains: RAIN! Beneficial, drought relief rain. Most spots will have some rain on Tuesday. Heavy rain will be possible at times, especially across the northern fringe of our local area. There is a low-end risk of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado or two in the stronger storms. Again, for most spots, this is a beneficial rain event. The overall chance of severe weather for any given spot remains low.

LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER RISK… It has been several weeks since we have had any type of significant severe weather episode. For those of you that may be new to RedZone Weather, we rely heavily on the standard Storm Prediction Center convective outlooks that are issued multiple times daily when there is a severe weather potential. “TORcon” and other proprietary tornado index values are used by some companies, but around here, we use the industry-standard convective outlook issued by SPC. For Tuesday, October 15, our local area is included in the low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) risk zone. This means that a few isolated stronger or marginally severe thunderstorms may happen, but the overall severe weather risk remains low.

POTENTIAL HAZARDS ON TUESDAY… Heavy rain that could lead to isolated instances of flash flooding will be the main concern on Tuesday. In addition, there is a low-end chance that some of the stronger storms may produce damaging wind gusts or a brief tornado or two. There are several factors working against the potential tornado risk on Tuesday, including (but not limited to) lack of instability once storms “work over” the atmosphere and low lapse rates. As always, if we happen to have any tornado warnings in our primary coverage area, we will provide uninterrupted live video coverage on Facebook and in the RedZone Weather app in the Live tab.

INLAND COMMUNITIES HAVE LOW-END RISK OF STRONGER STORMS… Pretty much all of us minus the immediate beach zones have the low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) severe weather risk in place for Tuesday. Areas north of Interstate 10 in Mobile, Baldwin, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, and Walton counties are involved in the low-end risk zone. This means that ALL of Escambia (AL), Conecuh, Butler, Covington, Monroe, Clarke, Washington, and Choctaw counties are included as well. We note that parts of central and southeast Alabama are also included in the Level 1 risk zone, including Montgomery, Auburn, Selma, Demopolis, Camden, Enterprise, Dothan, Troy, Geneva, and Eufaula.

RAIN & STORM TIMING… While heavy rain could happen at any time on Tuesday, the focus for the stronger to severe storms will happen mainly between Noon and 6PM. This is because storms will have more instability to work with in that time period compared to the late evening and early morning hours.

NEXT UPDATE… Since widespread severe weather is not expected, this will be the only RZW Exec alert you receive for this particular event. As always, please let me know if you have any decision support-related concerns or questions. I am a text or phone call away. My public updates will continue in the RedZone Weather app this evening, tonight, and on Tuesday as needed.

Have a great Monday evening!