RZW EXEC: TRACKING DORIAN… RZW Exec members, good evening! Tropical Storm Dorian is gaining strength this evening as it approaches the Lesser Antilles. While it is still far too early to know whether local impacts will happen, model trends have been a bit discouraging today. We note that the ECMWF/Euro model has started flirting with the idea that Dorian may cross the Florida Peninsula and move into the northeastern Gulf by early next week. Again, that’s ONE idea on the table at this point. There is still a high chance that our local area won’t ever have to deal with this system. Below is the information I’ll be publishing publicly in the next hour or so. We will need to closely monitor this system in the days ahead. I’ll have updates for you here in RZW Exec as needed. Let me know if you have any questions!

DORIAN COULD IMPACT FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS WEEKEND; GULF IMPACTS UNCERTAIN… Tropical Storm Dorian continues to strengthen as it approaches the Lesser Antilles on this Monday evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 60mph. The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center shows Dorian becoming a hurricane over the eastern Caribbean Sea before impacting Puerto Rico and Hispaniola on Wednesday into Thursday. Hurricane Watches have been posted for parts of the Lesser Antilles with a Tropical Storm Watch now in effect for all of Puerto Rico. While impacts in south Florida and/or central Florida appear more likely this evening, it’s still completely unknown whether Dorian will move into the Gulf of Mexico early next week. We have a lot more questions than answers at this point. Let’s discuss what we do know AND what we don’t know just yet…

LOCAL IMPACTS DISCUSSION FOR SOUTH ALABAMA & NW FLORIDA… No one (and again, NO ONE) knows whether Gulf Coast impacts will happen because of Tropical Storm Dorian just yet. It is noteworthy that many more models are now flirting with the idea that Dorian may cross the Florida Peninsula and enter the Gulf of Mexico in 6-7 days. Is that a certainty? No, nowhere close, but again that idea is on the table at this point. So much will depend on the future strength and size of the system, and unfortunately we don’t have a good grip on that info until after Dorian passes or crosses Hispaniola and/or Puerto Rico in 2-3 days. I would encourage everyone reading this to check back with me multiple times daily over the next several days for the latest information. I hope we’re able to get more information that will completely rule out local impacts, but that has not been the trend so far today. We’ll keep you posted in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download.

PROJECTED PATH CONFIDENCE IS HIGH; INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY LOW… There is high confidence that Tropical Storm Dorian will continue moving in a west-northwest or northwesterly fashion in the days ahead. That puts Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic in the crosshairs from what could be a category 1 hurricane. As we discussed in detail in this morning’s forecast video, so much of the long range forecast depends on what happens in the short range. I mentioned this morning that if Dorian skirts along the northern periphery of the cone of uncertainty, the system may be stronger. That has been reflected in the forecast updates from the National Hurricane Center today. The cone of uncertainty has been adjusted slightly to the right/north. This means the system will be in a more conducive environment as it moves across the eastern Caribbean Sea with less atmospheric shear. It’s also notable that the latest cone of uncertainty shows the center line missing or nearly missing the land interaction with Hispaniola. That means the core of Dorian MAY be largely intact when it emerges over the southwestern Atlantic. The big takeaway here is that we still don’t know exactly how strong or weak Dorian will be when it gets into the Atlantic and potentially takes aim at southern Florida. Hispaniola may break the system apart completely, but trends today have pointed to the system perhaps being a bit stronger as it marches northwest.

MAXIMUM WINDS NOW AT 60MPH; DORIAN MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST… The 7PM CDT advisory for Tropical Storm Dorian has just been issued. The center of the storm is located at 12.8 North and 59.1 West. Maximum winds have increased from earlier today and are now pegged at 60 mph, making Dorian a strong tropical storm. Hurricane force winds start at 74 mph. The storm is moving west-northwest at 14 mph, meaning Dorian will come very close or pass right over Barbados in the next 12-24 hours. Minimum central pressure is down to 1002 millibars.

HURRICANE WATCH FOR ST. LUCIA; TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR PUERTO RICO… St. Lucia is under a Hurricane Watch this evening as there is a potential for Dorian to ramp up to hurricane status before crossing the Lesser Antilles. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for Barbados, Martinique, St. Lucia, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Dominica, Grenada, and Saba & St. Eustatius. Those are some of the smaller islands in the Lesser Antilles. The entirety of Puerto Rico is also under a Tropical Storm Watch. I wouldn’t be shocked if a Hurricane Watch is needed for Puerto Rico and parts of the Dominican Republic on Tuesday. If Dorian survives and the current forecast verifies, Hurricane Watches may be needed for parts of the Atlantic coast of Florida by Thursday or Friday.

NEXT UPDATE IN VIDEO AT 7:15AM… I’ll have the next full, detailed forecast video along with a long form text discussion uploaded by 7:15AM on Tuesday. Please check back with me for the very latest. More updates will be posted this evening and tomorrow throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app.

Please let me know if you have any questions… Have a good Monday evening!

TROPICAL STORM LIKELY TO FORM THEN WEAKEN… RZW Exec members, good Thursday afternoon! The tropics are increasingly more active, but there is good news for our local area. We’re watching two separate tropical waves in the Atlantic Ocean. The tropical wave near south Florida and The Bahamas probably WON’T develop into a tropical storm as it lifts northward and ultimately northeast out to sea. The other tropical wave, branded as INVEST 96L, is about midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. That is the system that has a 70% chance of becoming a tropical storm over the next few days as it continues moving westward. Let me emphasize: At the moment, there is no imminent threat of tropical impacts in Alabama or northwest Florida. Early model trends show INVEST 96L recurving into the Atlantic, perhaps east of Florida.

Again, at this point, I am not expecting any issues because of either of these tropical “hotspots.” I’ll keep you posted ib the days ahead as needed. See the public post, below, that will debut later this evening. Have a good rest of your day!

TROPICAL STORM LIKELY TO FORM THIS WEEKEND IN ATLANTIC… The tropical wave currently situated about halfway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa continues to slowly become more organized. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) says there is a 70% chance that this tropical wave will strengthen into a tropical storm this weekend. While it is far too early to give any concrete guidance on where this storm will ultimately end up, there are two bits of good news to discuss this evening. Read on for a full, detailed tropical update…

INVEST 96L IN THE ATLANTIC LIKELY TO DEVELOP… There is a 7 out of 10 chance that we’ll have a tropical storm moving toward the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico by Sunday. The system is currently a tropical wave producing an area of disturbed weather about 1,100 miles east of the Lesser Antilles/Leeward Islands. The system has been branded as INVEST 96L. Upper-level winds will become favorable for the development of a tropical storm this weekend, but the good news is shear is forecast to increase ahead of the developing system early next week.

FUTURE INTENSITY ALL OVER THE BOARD… We don’t have a good grasp, at this point, of just how weak or how strong INVEST 96L will ultimately be. Some of the model guidance last evening suggested that the system could ramp up to a category 1 hurricane, but vast majority of the model guidance today has suggested that the system may not get much stronger than a minimal tropical storm. This type of uncertainty is to be expected in this stage before the system has formally developed. Models just can’t get get a good grip of the situation until a low-level circulation center has formed. Big takeaway here is that we don’t know just yet how weak or strong the system will be. This is something we’ll keep a close watch on.

VERY EARLY MODEL GUIDANCE POINTS TO A NORTHERLY TURN… Long time viewers and readers know that I don’t put much, if any, stock in any weather model guidance 7 days out or greater. There is simply too much variability in the atmosphere that often causes extreme model error in that range. No doubt, models are getting better every year, but we still have a long way to go in weather forecasting beyond the 7 day range. I am encouraged, however, that most of the major global weather models have consistently suggested that IF INVEST 96L develops, it will potentially take a northerly turn well before reaching south Florida. This would obviously mean that there would be little to no Gulf of Mexico impacts IF that turns out to be correct. A lot can and will change over the next few days as we get more data in about this system.

INVEST 95L REMAINS WEAK… The totally distinct tropical wave currently bringing showers and thunderstorms to parts of south Florida and The Bahamas remains fairly unorganized. NHC continues to give the system a 0-10% chance of development into a tropical storm as it moves north, basically paralleling the east/Atlantic coast of Florida over the next 3 days. The system is expected to turn northeastward and move out to sea this weekend. I would be very surprised at this point if that system actually develops.

LOCAL WEATHER TO BE CONSISTENT… No tropical or hurricane issues are expected in south Alabama or northwest Florida over the next 5-7 days. Our weather pattern will remain quite monotonous this weekend into early next week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be a fixture of our weather pattern in the afternoon and evening hours. High temperatures will be in the 90s with morning lows in the 70s.

APP… If you haven’t already downloaded the RedZone Weather app, now is a great time to do that. redzoneweather.com/app is the link to the free download. Once you have the RZW app installed on your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to turn on the specific notifications you’d like to receive. All notifications are handcrafted by me. No automation and we promise not to bug you!

TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA LATER THIS WEEK… The National Hurricane Center says there is a low-end (20%) chance that tropical storm formation may happen later this week into the upcoming weekend near The Bahamas and south Florida as a tropical wave approaches from the southeast. The system has been designated INVEST 95L. Early model guidance points to this system potentially developing and moving rapidly northeast into the open waters of the tropical Atlantic Ocean, although it is entirely too early to know with confidence whether that will, indeed, happen. Here are the headlines this evening…

IMPRESSIVE ‘LOOK’ ON SATELLITE IMAGERY… INVEST 95L is currently producing heavy rain and thunderstorms across much of the Lesser Antilles just southeast of Puerto Rico in the eastern Caribbean Sea. Much of the cloud cover depicted on the visible satellite imagery is upper-level clouds. I suspect that once this burst of convection fades, it will reveal the true nature of the system: Weak and fairly unorganized as of now. The system will move northwest in the days ahead, likely dropping excessive rainfall across Puerto Rico, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic.

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SEEM UNFAVORABLE… Based on the latest model data, it certainly seems like the environment ahead of INVEST 95L will be fairly hostile and not majorly supportive of tropical storm formation later this week. This is because of winds higher in the atmosphere, aka atmospheric wind shear, that will likely rip the system apart at least somewhat as it moves over The Bahamas.

IMPACTS UNLIKELY IN SOUTH ALABAMA OR NORTHWEST FLORIDA… There is no cause for panic, worry, or even giving this system much thought in our local area. There is very high chance, at this point, that direct local impacts in south Alabama or northwest Florida won’t ever happen because of this system. The ECMWF (Euro) model barely develops this system before lifting it rapidly northeast away from the United States. The legacy version of the Global Forecast System (GFS) does develop this system east of Florida before indicating a rapid move out into the open waters of the Atlantic.

LOW-END CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS WEEK… RZW Exec partners, good afternoon! We will be posting this publicly in the next hour as the National Hurricane Center has just released this new information and guidance. There is a low-end (20% as of Noon Tuesday) chance of tropical storm formation in the northern Gulf over the next few days. It is too early to know any details about specifics, but I’ll be sure and let you know more as I know more over the next day or two. Please see the public bulletin below.

20% CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN NORTHERN GULF LATER THIS WEEK… The National Hurricane Center has introduced a low-end chance of tropical storm formation for the northern Gulf of Mexico valid for later this week. We note this is a totally separate, distinct chance of tropical development that is NOT associated with the former Tropical Depression 3 east of Florida. From NHC: “A non-tropical low pressure area could form over the northern Gulf of Mexico by late Wednesday or Thursday. Thereafter, conditions could become marginally conducive for some subtropical or tropical development as it moves slowly northeastward through the end of the week.”

COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OUR AREA TONIGHT… One of the reasons NHC has flagged this area for a low-end chance of tropical storm formation in the northern Gulf is because of a cold front sliding through our area tonight. This cold front will stall over the northern Gulf (about 200 miles to the south of our area). There is a chance that a surface area of low pressure may develop along the front and slowly move northeast. If this happens, atmospheric conditions are at least somewhat favorable for the development of a tropical storm.

TOO EARLY TO KNOW POTENTIAL IMPACTS… It’s far too early in this process to be able to give any specifics about what our area may (or may not) experience due to this potential tropical development. If formal development happens (and that’s a BIG “if” at this point!), we will probably need to adjust rain chances higher for the weekend, but even that will largely depend on the future track of the system.

APP ALERTS… This is something to monitor and be aware of, but beyond that, there’s no need in panic or worrying at this point. There is still quite a high chance that this system never materializes. We’ll keep you posted about it all in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the RZW app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and turn ON the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

Let me know if you have any specific questions. I’ll have more updates throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app.

RZW EXEC UPDATE – T.S. BARRY… RZW Exec partners, good Friday evening! I am in the process of getting ready for a live video that will air in the 8 o’clock hour. The good news for you is I have no major changes to report. The forecast remains on track for south Alabama and northwest Florida with very little in the way of major impacts expected. Yes, there will be heavy rain and some potential for flash flooding this weekend. There could be a brief tornado or two this weekend as well. No wind issues are expected locally. The latest “cone of uncertainty” and track projection from the National Hurricane Center is above. Please let me know if you have any decision support needs. The full discussion I’ll be attaching to the live video is below. Have a good evening!

TORNADO RISK PEAKS OVERNIGHT AND ON SATURDAY BEFORE BARRY MOVES NORTH… Tropical Storm Barry is set to make landfall in the next 12-15 hours along the southern coast of Louisiana as a strong tropical storm or a category 1 hurricane. Rain has been a bit more prevalent across our local area today and I expect the coverage of showers and thunderstorms to continue to increase locally tonight and on Saturday as the core of Barry begins lifting to the north across Louisiana. While the overall tornado risk across south Alabama remains LOW, it’s not zero – especially at the coast and across west Alabama. Everyone should have a way to get the warnings overnight, including something that will wake you up in case your specific location goes under a tornado warning polygon. Let’s look at what you need to know tonight before you go to sleep…

WHAT TO EXPECT LOCALLY – OVERNIGHT… Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to stream inland from the Gulf of Mexico over the next 12-24 hours. I’m observing quite a bit of rain south of Destin and Panama City that will move in overnight. This will be a more consistent rain than most areas have had with this event so far. There is a low-end tornado risk tonight and into Saturday at the immediate coastline (basically south of Interstate 10). That threat will shift inland on Saturday during the daytime hours as Barry moves farther north.

BLUE ANGELS UPDATE… The Blue Angels are still aiming to have a limited performance on Saturday at 2PM at Pensacola Beach. Unfortunately, based on the latest data, I would suggest there will be quite a bit of rain around at that time. It’s impossible to know with certainty whether the Blues will get to fly, but I would not be surprised at all if they didn’t. I’m sure there will still be many people at Pensacola Beach for the big weekend, though. If you are down that way, be sure to keep tabs on the radar throughout the day at redzoneweather.com/radar or in the Radar tab of the RedZone Weather app.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES… A Flash Flood Watch continues for all parts of Escambia (AL), Clarke, Choctaw, Washington, Mobile, and Baldwin counties in Alabama. Escambia (FL) and Santa Rosa counties are also included in Florida. This includes Brewton, Atmore, Poarch, Flomaton, Thomasville, Grove Hill, Jackson, Coffeeville, Butler, Needham, Toxey, Silas, Gilbertown, Mobile, Citronelle, Wilmer, Mt. Vernon, Saraland, Satsuma, Prichard, Bayou La Batre, Dauphin Island, Coden, Fairhope, Daphne, Spanish Fort, Silverhill, Robertsdale, Bay Minette, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Pensacola, Molino, Century, Walnut Hill, Pensacola Beach, Gulf Breeze, Ensley, Milton, Pace, Jay, Whiting Field, Navarre, Berrydale, Munson, Chumuckla, Allentown, and surrounding areas. These are the communities in our region likely to pick up the most rainfall over the next 2-3 days.

GULF WATERS CLOSED AT MANY BEACHES – RIP CURRENTS HAPPENING… Double red flags continue to fly at many local beaches across Alabama and northwest Florida, meaning the Gulf is closed. This is a subject I’ve been harping on lately because of the horrendous statistics associated with the deaths we’ve had… PLEASE do not get in the Gulf waters while this tropical storm is nearby. You could face a hefty fine and more importantly, you could lose your life. Don’t risk it!

WIND ISSUES IN LOUISIANA, BUT NOT CLOSE TO HOME… Tropical storm force winds are happening in the southern part of Louisiana this evening. We will continue to have a good breeze at the local beaches. The good news is our forecast is on track and high winds are NOT expected across south Alabama and northwest Florida due to Tropical Storm Barry.

COASTAL FLOODING TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY… The western end of Dauphin Island has already had some minor coastal flooding issues. Low-lying areas near the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches will continue to have minor coastal flooding issues as the core of Barry lifts northward on Saturday into Sunday. This will be due to the strong onshore flow, as our area will remain on the eastern side of the system.

FREE REDZONE WEATHER APP… If you’re following RedZone Weather on Facebook, thank you! If you’re following me on Facebook ALONE, however, you’re missing out. Be sure to download the RedZone Weather app (redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download). There is plenty more content in the app compared to what I post on Facebook each day. See below about how to set up app alerts.

GET THOSE APP ALERTS… We provide a variety of different options to fit your weather information needs. You should control how many alerts you want. We help with that by providing High-Level Alerts, Medium-Level Alerts, and Low-Level Alerts. Everyone gets the High-Level Alerts. We send one or two of those PER YEAR, so not very often at all. We reserve those alerts for high impact weather events. Medium-Level Alerts are recommended for most people. They’re the important alerts, but not necessarily super urgent. Low-Level Alerts are designed for people who want many, many alerts throughout the day. You’ll also want to turn ON alerts for the counties you care about. To do all of this, download the RedZone Weather app and visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner), then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to turn on the specific alerts you want.