ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY… RZW Exec partners, good Tuesday morning! The Storm Prediction Center has opted to include parts of our northwest Florida counties in their Level 1 (out of 5) marginal severe weather risk zone valid for Wednesday due to a low-end risk of damaging wind gusts in any of the stronger storms that happen. The risk of a brief, isolated tornado is VERY low across northwest Florida and is closer to zero across south Alabama. SPC has included the southern parts of Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, and Walton counties in their low-end risk zone.

WHAT TO EXPECT WEDNESDAY… In short, RAIN. We will have a good, soaking, cool rain in place across our region for much of the day on Wednesday. Rain amounts will be between 1-2″ in total before rain moves out early Thursday morning. There could be some embedded thunderstorms, especially closer to the coast. Instability is expected to be quite limited throughout this event, thus I am not nearly as concerned about the potential for severe weather as there is a very high chance we won’t have any major issues.

NEXT UPDATES… Unless we have major changes (which I’m not expecting), this will be the one and only RZW Exec alert for this particular weather system. We will begin our public messaging about the very low-end severe weather risk for Wednesday shortly. As always, please let me know if you have any questions!

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY

LEVEL 2 SEVERE WEATHER RISK SATURDAY… RZW Exec partners, good morning! There could be a few strong to severe storms on Saturday capable of producing isolated tornadoes and damaging wind gusts. There have been a few changes over the last 24 hours. Most notably, the Storm Prediction Center now outlooks much of our area in their Level 2 (out of 5) “slight risk” zone. Yesterday, we were at at Level 1 risk. Today, we’re at Level 2, which is the standard slight risk.

RZW EXEC COMMENTARY… This will be a linear threat of storms, also known as a squall line or quasi-linear convective system (QLCS). This line of storms is expected to push into west Alabama in the late morning or early afternoon hours of Saturday. The line of storms will push eastward across our area through the afternoon and into the early evening hours. It is plausible to assume we will have 0-3 tornadoes across our region, probably weaker ones that down a few trees. Tomorrow will be a day that we need to take severe thunderstorm warnings seriously as well. Why? The straight line wind threat will be the main concern as this line of storms moves by. Flash flooding will not be as big of a concern with this event since it will be fast-moving. Large hail is not a major concern with this system, although smaller hail (less than nickel size) will be possible as the core of the squall line moves by a given location. Rain amounts will generally be less than 1.5″ in total across the region.

STORM TIMING… The risk of severe weather will last from 9AM Saturday to 6PM Saturday for south Alabama and northwest Florida. Storms will likely enter west Alabama from Mississippi in the late morning hours. These storms will move across our region from west to east through the Saturday afternoon hours.

MUCH COOLER LATE SATURDAY EVENING… The thunderstorms that will move through Saturday are happening in response to a strong cold front moving by our region. Sharply cooler air will move in after the passage of the line of storms through a given location. Temperatures Sunday into Monday will be quite cold, with a hard freeze potentially being possible for our northern counties early Monday morning. I’m certainly not going to bother you with further alerts about this as we have talked extensively about it over the last few days, but I do want everyone to be aware that this will be the coldest snap we’ve had so far this winter. Overnight lows in the 20s by Monday morning!

CONTINUING COVERAGE… This is the final RZW Exec update about this severe weather potential setting up for Saturday. We will have plenty more updates today, tonight, and on Saturday across our social media platforms and in the main area (REFRESH tab, bottom left corner) of the RedZone Weather app. Let me know if you have any questions or need specific help with your decision support. Have a wonderful weekend and stay safe!

ISOLATED STRONG STORMS SATURDAY

LOW-END RISK ON SATURDAY… We have a low-end, marginal risk of severe weather setting up for the daytime hours of Saturday as a powerful cold front moves through south Alabama and northwest Florida. While most of us will have brief periods of heavy rain, there is a low-end risk of damaging wind gusts in the stronger storms. The risk of an isolated tornado remains very low, but NOT zero.

80 percent of the time in these low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) severe weather risk situations, our area ends up not having any tornado warnings, but that means two out of ten times features at least one tornado warning.

WHO IS INVOLVED… ALL of our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida is included in the Level 1 (out of 5) marginal severe weather risk zone valid for Saturday as defined by the Storm Prediction Center. In addition, all zones in southeast and central Alabama are included in the low-end risk zone. Basically everyone south of a line from Hamilton to Oneonta to Roanoke is included in this low-end risk, including Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Auburn, Montgomery, Selma, Demopolis, Greenville, Troy, Dothan, Thomasville, Monroeville, Evergreen, Atmore, Brewton, Mobile, Fairhope, Pensacola, Destin, Panama City, and surrounding areas.

POTENTIAL HAZARDS… For vast majority of us, we’ll have intermittent times of heavy rain with some thunder and lightning as well. There is a low-end risk of damaging straight line winds and a few, brief tornadoes as well. If any tornadoes occur, they will most likely be weak and not last very long at all. As I often say in our public products though, if ANY tornado affects YOU, it’s a big deal. Rain amounts with this system will likely be 1 to 2 inches in total, meaning flash flooding hazards should be limited.

STORM TIMING… The risk of severe weather will last from 10AM Saturday to 7PM Saturday for south Alabama and northwest Florida. Storms will likely enter west Alabama from Mississippi in the late morning hours. These storms will move across our region from west to east through the Saturday afternoon hours.

MUCH COLDER SUNDAY… After the passage of the cold front that is causing this low-end severe weather potential, significantly colder air will move into our region from the northwest late Saturday into Sunday. While temperatures will likely not be AS cold as initially indicated, our entire region will likely plunge into the 20s by Monday morning. The daytime hours of Monday look to be a bit warmer than we initially expected as well. High temperatures on Monday will surge into the 50s.

CONTINUING COVERAGE… Our public messaging about this low-end risk of severe weather will kick off shortly with Low-Level Alerts being issued here in the RedZone Weather app. My next RZW Exec update will be issued tomorrow (Friday, January 18) no later than 5PM. Let me know if you have any questions! Have a good afternoon!

BITTERLY COLD TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK

RZW Exec partners, good Monday evening! We’ll be posting a special graphic this evening across our platforms discussing the bitterly cold temperatures that are slated to happen across south Alabama and northwest Florida (and really the entire Deep South) in the early part of next week. A Hard Freeze Warning will likely be needed Sunday (January 20) night into Monday, January 21. Temperatures will likely be in the low-20s Monday morning with wind chill values in the low-10s. We note there is NO snow in the forecast for our local area. Below are some of the paragraphs I’ll be including in the post this evening. As always, let me know if you have any questions, comments, or concerns!

NO SNOW, BUT VERY COLD TEMPERATURES LIKELY NEXT WEEK… The coldest temperatures of 2019 (and of this particular winter season) will happen early next week as a cold front moves by Saturday ushering in a very cold, Arctic air mass. Temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s all day on Sunday, followed by the coldest night of this cold snap. The image attached is of the projected overnight lows for Monday morning, January 21. Alabama and northwest Florida will endure a hard freeze with temperatures in the 20s across our region. Central and north Alabama will almost certainly fall into the 10s.

RAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY… Our next chance of rain will happen late Thursday into Friday as temperatures warm into the 60s and potentially near 70° each day. We could have a few thunderstorms on Saturday, but the severe weather risk remains very low to near zero.

NO SNOW IN THE FORECAST… Other than a few snow flurries being possible on Sunday across north and parts of north-central Alabama, there is no snow in the forecast. The chance of snow flurries across interior regions of south Alabama will be very low (<10%) with the chance of flurries near the coast being basically zero. Long range models show more areas of low pressure developing and moving across or near our area over the next few weeks, but all of the precipitation areas are rain and not snow (even in the longer range “idea” models). Could this change? Yes, but please keep in mind that snow events are RARE for our local area. We had two snow events last winter and that’s only the second time in weather recording history (since the 1850s) that has happened. Snow is uncommon around here and there is currently none forecast to happen.

DON’T FEED THE TROLLS… It’s often the case this time of year that the clickbaiters and the “weather hype machine” on social media go absolutely crazy – posting ludicrous model images that show a snow potential for our area. Please understand that vast majority of these folks are aiming for likes, shares, and clicks. They usually a) are not meteorologists and b) don’t care if what they’re posting is accurate or not. The real headline with this next cold front won’t be snow, but clearly the very cold temperatures and very low wind chill values. Help me out in combating this nonsense by NOT sharing it.

WIND CHILL VALUES TO BE IN TEENS LOCALLY… After the passage of the cold front, there will likely be a strong north or northwest wind happening across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Combined with temperatures in the 20s and 30s late Sunday into Monday, wind chill values could easily be in the 10s. If you’re planning on hunting or being outside for another activity on Sunday evening into Monday, please bundle up and be ready for brutal cold and strong wind (not a fun combination in my experience!).

Let me know if you have any questions. My next forecast video will be posted by 7:15AM. Enjoy your evening!

STORMS ON MONDAY… RZW Exec partners, good Sunday afternoon! There will be a low-end risk of strong to severe storms on Monday, mainly between 2PM and 8PM, for areas along and west of the Alabama River in west Alabama. The Storm Prediction Center has much of Monroe, Clarke, Washington, Choctaw, Marengo, and Mobile counties under their Level 1 (out of 5) marginal risk zone valid for Monday into the evening hours. Clearly, the better dynamics with this weather system will be to our north in the northwestern corner of Alabama. Below is the text I’ll be using in today’s video update. Let me know if you have any questions or concerns!

ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ON MONDAY… The Storm Prediction Center has outlooked the western part of our local area in their low-end, Level 1 marginal severe weather risk valid for Monday. The greater chance of severe storms will happen across the northwest corner of Alabama and in northeast Mississippi where the Level 2 slight risk is in place.

LEVEL 2 RISK TO OUR NORTH… Communities along and west of Interstate 59 in northwest Alabama are included in the standard slight risk zone to potentially see a few stronger storms on Monday into Monday evening. Huntsville, Cullman, Decatur, Muscle Shoals, Florence, Hartselle, Double Springs, Aliceville, Hamilton, Jasper, Russellville have the greatest chance of severe weather on Monday. The greatest risk will be damaging straight line winds in the stronger storms. An isolated tornado or two will be possible as well.

LEVEL 1 RISK FOR WEST ALABAMA LOCALLY… If any strong to severe thunderstorms happen in south Alabama or northwest Florida, they will likely happen WEST of Interstate 65 as a cold front approaches on Monday into Monday evening. For our local area, the following communities are involved in the low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) severe weather risk zone: Thomasville, Monroeville, Grove Hill, Jackson, Coffeeville, Chatom, Fruitdale, Vinegar Bend, Leroy, Citronelle, Wilmer, and Mt. Vernon. The Level 1 risk zone extends northeast into central Alabama as well. Butler, Demopolis, Tuscaloosa, Camden, Selma, Prattville, Clanton, Birmingham, Talladega, Anniston, Gadsden, Ft. Payne, and Centre are all included in the low-end risk zone.

FOR COMMUNITIES TO THE EAST… Storms will likely be weakening pretty considerably by the time they get to the communities along and EAST of I-65 in our local area on Monday. This is the “General Thunderstorm” zone as outlooked by the Storm Prediction Center, aka the areas that don’t have a formal severe weather risk. Yes, there will be thunder and lightning at times, but the overall severe weather risk is much lower. Mobile, Pensacola, the Eastern Shore, Brewton, Evergreen, Greenville, Andalusia, Opp, Florala, Destin, Crestview, Milton, Century, Atmore, Poarch, Bay Minette, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, and Gulf Breeze.

CONTINUING COVERAGE… This will be the final RZW Exec update issued for this event as we will transition to our public coverage. Be sure to check with me in the main area of the RedZone Weather app on Monday for updates. Again, let me know if there is anything specific I can help you with if you need weather-related decision support. Have a great evening!