MORE STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY… RZW Exec partners, good Friday evening! This is a brief update to give you an early heads up that we may have another round of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms (in addition to potentially 2-4″ of additional rainfall) on Monday, December 31. Model data has been inconsistent, so it’s not feasible for me to provide potential details just yet. The big takeaway is that under some model scenarios, we may have another round of active weather on Monday. Early indications point to a morning event, but since there is so much uncertainty, I would take that with a proverbial “grain of salt.” Details will become more clear this weekend.

ACTIVE MORNING FOR WEST ALABAMA… A major flash flood event happened over southeast Mississippi and west Alabama this morning, with some spots picking up 15 INCHES OF RAIN in less than 12 hours. We also had one tornado warning in Washington County this morning around 3:00AM. Here is the archive of our live streaming coverage if you’d like to go back and see it. The event on Monday could potentially be similar, in that the biggest risk may happen due to training showers and thunderstorms that produce extreme rainfall amounts.

NEXT RZW EXEC UPDATE… I’ll have the latest on the Monday severe weather potential posted here in Tactical Ops by 5PM on Sunday evening. No major weather issues, other than patchy areas of dense fog and ongoing flooding, are expected through then. Let me know if you have any questions. Enjoy your weekend!

LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER RISK

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible late this evening into the morning hours of Friday, mainly across the far western fringes of Alabama. A potent line of storms is currently moving east across Mississippi and Louisiana. This line of storms will likely weaken as it approaches the Alabama-Mississippi state line tonight. The overall risk of severe weather across south Alabama and northwest Florida remains VERY low through this evening but the risk will increase slightly after 8PM across west Alabama. Rain coverage will likely increase throughout the day, and there may be some thunder involved this evening. Storms will cross our area from west to east on Friday morning. Let’s look at the situation as it stands right now and discuss what you can expect into Friday…

STORMS TO OUR WEST

Strong to severe thunderstorms are moving eastward across southern Mississippi and Louisiana. A Tornado Watch continues to our west valid until 6PM. New Orleans, Jackson (MS), McComb, and Baton Rouge are all included in the watch area. We note several tornado warnings have happened along the line as it continues to push eastward. This line of storms will likely peak in intensity over the next few hours before weakening after sunset. This is good news for our local area, as the line of storms will likely break apart somewhat as it moves into our local area late tonight or early on Friday.

GREATEST RISK: WEST ALABAMA

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) continues to include parts of extreme west Alabama in their Level 2 (out of 5) slight risk zone. Parts of Choctaw, Washington, and Mobile counties are included. IF severe weather happens in the state of Alabama, it will likely occur near the AL/MS state line as this main line of storms approaches from the west. We note that SPC has now included basically all of the local area in a low-end, Level 1 risk zone valid for Friday morning after 6AM. The severe weather risk will end from west to east as the main line of storms passes a given location on Friday morning.

SEVERE WEATHER TIMING

Based on the latest radar data, this line of storms is moving quickly eastward across Mississippi. It certainly seems like the decaying line of storms could reach west Alabama a bit earlier than guidance has indicated, thus it seems prudent to suggest that IF severe weather happens in southwest Alabama, it is most likely to happen between 11PM Thursday and 5AM on Friday. Please keep in mind that storms will almost certainly be weakening as they move into Alabama, and there is a significant chance we come through this event without any tornado warnings in our local area. On the other end of the spectrum, however, there is also a chance we could have a few, brief tornadoes across the region. The truth of what will happen is probably in the middle of those two scenarios, with a tornado warning or two being possible.

2-5″ OF RAIN AHEAD

The (above) Quantitative Precipitation Forecast is valid through Monday, December 31. Even though our severe weather risk will end long before then, there is still a chance of flash flooding through the middle part of next week. Parts of west Alabama may have upwards of 5 inches of rain, with most of us picking up 3-4″ before all is said and done. Localized flash flooding issues will be possible, especially across the western half of our local area. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for the entirety of our local area other than Okaloosa and Covington counties.

CONTINUING COVERAGE

This will be the final RZW Exec update about this severe weather potential as my focus shifts to our public-facing products. Be sure to keep up with the updates throughout the afternoon/evening here in the main (REFRESH tab) feed of the RedZone Weather app. Let me know if you have any questions!

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY A.M.

RZW Exec partners, I hope each of you had a great Christmas! We have a potential severe weather event coming together for the morning hours of Friday across parts of south Alabama and northwest Florida. While the main concern for most of us across the region will be heavy rain that could potentially lead to flash flooding, there also is a risk late Thursday into Friday morning for a few tornadoes and damaging wind gusts, especially over our west Alabama counties.

GREATEST RISK: WEST ALABAMA

Above is the latest convective outlook, issued by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman, Oklahoma. SPC has parts of west Alabama included in their Level 2 (out of 5) standard slight risk zone to potentially see a few strong to severe thunderstorms early Friday morning. Much of the remainder of our local area is included in the Level 1 marginal risk zone, depicted in the darker shade of green in the graphic above. These are the areas where the severe weather risk is LOW, but it’s not zero.

This means that the risk of a few tornadoes and damaging wind gusts in the stronger storms will happen across Mobile, Washington, and Choctaw counties in west Alabama. Communities included in the Level 2 risk zone are areas in/near Chatom, McIntosh, Fruitdale, Vinegar Bend, Frankville, Millry, Citronelle, Wilmer, Toxey, Silas, and Gilbertown.

BIG RAIN EVENT

All of us across south Alabama and northwest Florida will likely pick up 2 to 3 inches of rainfall in total over the next 5 days. We note that rainfall projections have edged downward slightly over the last 24 hours, as we did have much of the region included in the 3-4″ rainfall zone. There could be some training involved with showers and storms over the next few days, meaning localized flash flooding issues will be possible.

RAIN/STORM TIMING

Scattered rain showers will likely begin across the region as early as late this (Wednesday) evening. Scattered to numerous showers are expected across the region on Thursday. The severe weather risk will begin on Thursday evening and last until the main line of thunderstorms passes through on Friday morning. The line of storms should progressively weaken as it crosses our area. There’s a good chance we’ll be able to give a severe weather “all clear” during the late morning hours of Friday. Rain will continue long after the severe weather risk ends, however. The core risk of strong to severe thunderstorms will be from 2AM Friday to 8AM Friday.

Below is a projected radar view from the 3km North American Model (NAM) valid at 8AM CST on Friday morning. This model simulation shows the main line of thunderstorms entering west Alabama with scattered showers and storms out ahead of the main line. IF (and that’s a big if, at this point) any of the storms out ahead of the main line become discrete/isolated, there could be a tornado or two associated with those storms as well.

NEXT RZW EXEC UPDATE

My next RZW Exec update will be posted here in Tactical Ops by 2PM on Thursday, December 27. We have already initiated our public messaging about this severe weather event and will continue to post updates in the public-facing sections of the RedZone Weather app and across our social platforms as well. Let me know if you have any questions!

ISOLATED STORMS THURSDAY

RZW Exec partners, good Tuesday morning! This is a brief update to give you an early heads up that we will be tracking rain and thunderstorms on Thursday into early Friday. The Storm Prediction Center has opted to include parts of Mobile, Baldwin, Escambia (FL), and Santa Rosa counties in their Level 1 (out of 5) marginal risk zone. This will be a low-end severe weather potential with the bigger concern being heavy downpours of rain Thursday evening into early Friday. Could an isolated tornado happen? Yes. Are tornadoes likely with this event? No, at least not in our local area.

This low-end severe weather potential will be quite similar to the events we’ve had over the last few weeks with quite a bit of rain, but not much in the way of truly hazardous weather. That statement is according to the latest model data, which shows a significant lack of CAPE/instability across our region. This will likely serve to hinder storms in a significant way. Below is the latest convective outlook valid for Thursday…

PUBLIC UPDATES TO CONTINUE

Barring any significant change in forecast data, this will likely be a severe weather potential with very little in the way of impacts other than heavy rain at times. IF significant forecast changes happen, I’ll be sure to bring you another RZW Exec update here in the Tactical Ops Room. Otherwise, we will continue to publicly post about this low-end severe weather event over the next few days. As always, let me know if you have any questions. Have a great week!

HEAVY RAIN & STORMS LIKELY SATURDAY

RZW Exec partners, good Friday morning! We have another round of active weather slated to happen on Saturday across south Alabama and northwest Florida. This event will feature a conditional, low-end risk of severe thunderstorms confined to the immediate coastal areas of our region. The headline risk over the next 24-48 hours will come from the potential of flash flooding as heavy rain is expected.

ISOLATED COASTAL STORMS

The Storm Prediction Center has opted to include coastal areas of Mobile, Baldwin, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties in their Level 1 (out of 5) marginal severe weather risk zone. This means that a few isolated, brief strong to severe storms will be possible in these areas with the main concern being a brief, spin-up tornado or damaging wind gust in the stronger storms that happen. Mobile, Pensacola, Destin, Milton, Pace, Daphne, Fairhope, Spanish Fort, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Perdido Key, Gulf Breeze, Mary Esther, Niceville, Robertsdale, Silverhill, Foley, Elberta, Magnolia Springs, Point Clear, Bayou La Batre, Dauphin Island, and Theodore are included in this low-end severe weather risk zone.

The remainder of our local area is included in the “General Thunderstorms” zone, which is where weaker thunderstorms are expected to remain below severe limits. Thunder and lightning will be possible, but the overall severe weather risk is much lower for inland communities. This includes places like Brewton, Atmore, Poarch, Flomaton, Evergreen, Monroeville, Greenville, Thomasville, Andalusia, Opp, Chatom, Jackson, Bay Minette, Citronelle, Century, Jay, Munson, and Crestview.

MAIN CONCERN: FLASH FLOODING

The latest Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (above) shows much of our area picking up 2 to 3 inches of rain on Saturday before the end of the day, however I think these totals may be a bit lower than some of the actual totals that will likely happen. Isolated higher totals of 4-6″ of rain can’t be ruled out. The National Weather Service agrees with this assessment and has placed much of our local area in an Elevated Risk zone for flash flooding on Saturday (below).

RAIN/STORM TIMING

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely begin very early in the morning hours of Saturday. The low-end severe weather risk will start around midday (1PM) and last until a line of storms moves east of our area, probably no later than 11PM. Our public forecasts will reflect the severe weather timing window being from 1PM to 11PM, with the core risk happening from 4PM to 9PM. Again, it’s coastal areas that have the severe weather risk. The risk of flash flooding will last well into Sunday across the region as rain totals continue to add up. Below is the 3km North American Model view valid at 5PM on Saturday when a line of heavy rain and storms will likely be moving from west to east across our area.

CONTINUING COVERAGE

We will continue to post updates in the public-facing section of the RedZone Weather app in addition to our social media platforms today, tonight, and into Saturday. Let me know if you have any decision support needs, questions, or concerns. I look forward to seeing many of you in the Brewton, AL Christmas Parade this evening. You can’t miss our float! It’s big, it’s (quite) red, and it will feature me in a red suit with my friend, Buddy the Elf. Looking forward to it.