TROPICAL ISSUES LIKELY MIDWEEK

GROWING CHANCE OF LOCAL IMPACTS… There is now a significant chance that local impacts will happen in south Alabama and northwest Florida as what will likely be Tropical Storm/Hurricane Michael approaches from the Gulf of Mexico in the next few days. Unfortunately, there is still so much we do not know yet. Much of the uncertainty is because weather models do not perform well until the low-level circulation has actually formed. Regardless, models have been consistent in suggesting a northern Gulf Coast landfall at some point between Wednesday and Friday.

RZW EXEC

RZW EXEC EXCLUSIVE LOOK AT MODELS… This section won’t appear in our public-facing products as I don’t believe it is wise to show “one run solutions” to the public. Models have been consistent in suggesting a northern Gulf Coast landfall, somewhere between Cameron, Louisiana eastward to Cedar Key, Florida. That is a wide stretch of coastline that includes our local area.

First, let’s look at the reliable ECMWF/Euro model. The Euro has a strong tropical storm or cat. 1 hurricane (65-80mph max. winds) moving onshore centered near Navarre, FL. At the moment, the Euro suggests a landfall Thursday afternoon. The “angle of attack” is SSW to NNE, meaning much of our area would be on the “better” western side of the system, although this may be negated somewhat by the fact that the inner core of the storm will move directly over our eastern counties in this scenario. Here is the Euro valid at 7PM CDT on Thursday evening (aka 0Z time Friday). This is the 850mb (~5,000 feet above ground level) winds…

The next run of the Euro will be released around 1:30PM CDT. Despite this being the ‘best data’ around, runs of the Euro are only released two times per day, unlike many of the other models which are released 4+ times per day.

The second model we’ll look at is the latest run of the Global Forecast System (GFS), our American-based model. This is the latest run that was released moments ago. The GFS has consistently been much more bullish on intensity, and this run is no exception. It has a 970mb hurricane moving inland near Pensacola Beach, FL on Wednesday morning at 7AM. This would likely equate to a category 2 hurricane. Again, this is certainly on the upper echelon of the intensity guidance as of now and is probably somewhat of an outlier on the high end. The GFS also has a general SSE to NNW movement. If this solution verifies, there would likely be potentially significant impacts across much of south Alabama and northwest Florida. High winds, tornadoes, storm surge at the coast, etc.

Below is the final model we’ll assess in today’s update, the Canadian standard model. The Canadian shows a strengthening Tropical Storm Michael moving inland near the Alabama/Mississippi state line with much of our local area being on the volatile right-front quadrant of the storm. We note that at peak intensity on the Canadian data, Michael maxes out as a moderate tropical storm. The Canadian model shows a landfall happening on Wednesday morning.

THE BIG TAKEAWAYS… Now that you’ve seen 3 models with brief analysis, you probably have a better grasp of the uncertainty we’re dealing with. Despite the uncertainty, the model trends and signals are consistently suggesting:

1) A very high (80-90%) chance of tropical storm formation in the next 72 hours in the western Caribbean Sea or southern Gulf of Mexico.

2) Potential impacts along the northern Gulf Coast. Impacts for specific areas will become more clear in the days ahead as we figure out the exact forecast track of this system. At bare minimum, we’re talking increased rain chances for south Alabama and northwest Florida. On the other end of the spectrum, borderline major hurricane impacts featuring high winds, tornadoes, storm surge, and flash flooding. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle of those two extreme scenarios.

3) A northern Gulf Coast landfall is likely. As we’ve been advertising, the range of landfall locations seems to be between Cameron, Louisiana eastward to Cedar Key, Florida. That includes much of the Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and NW Florida coastline.

NEXT RZW EXEC UPDATE… BY Sunday at 10PM CDT at the latest, but likely sooner. Feel free to contact me if you have specific questions. We’re in somewhat of a holding pattern until the low-level center of circulation forms.

TROPICAL STORM LIKELY IN GULF IN DAYS AHEAD… There is now a high (70-80%) chance that a tropical storm or hurricane may happen in the Gulf of Mexico in the next 7 days. While it is still too early to say with confidence that local impacts will happen in portions of south Alabama and northwest Florida, odds are increasing that this will be a storm that passes near or over our local area. We note that several models show the system moving directly over our primary coverage area from south to north, although I caution that it remains too early to say that will definitely happen. Let’s talk details…

CURRENT SITUATION… As of now, we have a developing area of low pressure in the western Caribbean Sea. Here is the latest synopsis from the National Hurricane Center: “Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located near Cabo Gracias a Dios on the eastern border of Honduras and Nicaragua have become more concentrated during the past several hours. Although strong winds aloft are located just to the north of this system, the upper-level environment is expected to be conducive enough to allow slow development, and a tropical depression could form by late this weekend or early next week over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or southern Gulf of Mexico while the system moves slowly northwestward.”

BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT… Yesterday in our RZW Exec update, I mentioned that there were a few model ideas that had a wide variety of potential impacts for the Gulf Coast. Today, (unfortunately for our local area) there is substantial model agreement that a tropical storm or hurricane will develop in the Gulf and move northward. There is still notable model divergence as far as where the system ends up. Some models (like the Canadian) show a landfall farther west in Louisiana. Most models (like the ECMWF/Euro) show a northwest Florida or AL/MS landfall. Some show a Florida Panhandle landfall just to our east near Panama City (like the latest GFS run). The big takeaway here is that local impacts seem possible based on the continuing model trends.

INTENSITY TO BE DETERMINED… Intensity guidance quality will improve once the system actually develops. For now, most global models suggest this will be a tropical storm that moves from south to north across the Gulf. There are a few outliers that suggest the system may ramp up to a category 1 or 2 hurricane, although those are OUTLIER model scenarios as of now.

“EAST IS BEAST, WEST IS BEST”… I hate to “wish” a hurricane/tropical storm on anyone, but the best case scenario for our local area (south Alabama and northwest Florida) would be for this system to make landfall TO OUR EAST, putting us on the “better” west side. Generally, the worst impacts (including the tornado threat) is worse on the right, front quadrant of the system. In this case, that means the north/east side. That’s why you’ll occasionally hear me say in our public coverage that, “The east is the beast and the west is the best.” The latest run of the Global Forecast System (GFS) has this scenario taking shape, although again, this is ONE run and there will definitely be other ideas produced in the GFS in subsequent runs. Take the below image with a proverbial grain of salt.

NOW IS THE TIME TO PREPARE… We’re headed into the weekend. I am taking some time this afternoon to review our Hurricane Contingency Plan with our team. While this still very well could be a “miss” or “near miss” for our local area, the trends in the data support us being on heightened alert for a potential tropical storm or hurricane impact.

LOCATIONS… Folks in Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida should all closely monitor the progress of this system as it develops in the days ahead. That includes the entirety of our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida as local impacts will be possible. Details will become more clear as we continue to process more model data over the next few days.

TIMEFRAME… Some significant changes in this subject area! Don’t be surprised if our “best estimates” for the timeline of local impacts changes MORE in the days ahead based on new data. Depending on when the system actually forms a low-level circulation and is classified as a tropical cyclone, impacts could begin as early as Tuesday night or extend to as late as Saturday. Wednesday, October 10 through Friday, October 12 is the best estimate for when local impacts are most likely in south Alabama and northwest Florida and that is IF (and that’s a big if, at this point) local impacts happen. That is a large timeframe that we will be able to get more specific with in the days ahead. Again, further changes are expected.

NEXT RZW EXEC UPDATE…  Tomorrow (Saturday, October 5) by 1:30PM CDT. Friendly reminder: I post new information *frequently* in the public-facing section of the RedZone Weather app. Please let the public-facing information feed into your decision-making processes as well.

Let me know if you have any questions or concerns. Have a good evening!

SYNOPSIS… There is an increasing chance that a tropical storm may form in the southern Gulf of Mexico in 2-5 days. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center now shows there is a 40% chance that the area of low pressure we’ve been monitoring in the western Caribbean Sea becomes a tropical storm this weekend. It is still too early to know for sure whether local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida will happen. Some models do show the potential for local impacts at this early stage of this monitoring process, including the reliable ECMWF (Euro) model.

RELIABLE EURO SUGGESTS HURRICANE… Long-time RZW viewers/readers know that I strongly advise against getting caught up in “one model” solutions. Weather forecasts should be derived from a wide variety of models and data. I won’t post the below image publicly because of that. Below is one model idea from the ECMWF (European) model valid on Friday, October 12 at 7PM CDT. If this solution happens to be correct, it has a strong tropical storm or cat. 1 hurricane moving southwest to northeast just south of our area with a landfall near Fort Walton Beach being possible. Again, this is only one model idea!

OTHER MODEL IDEAS… The Euro/ECMWF model has consistently painted the idea of a tropical storm/hurricane moving north in the Gulf of Mexico in that timeframe. The American-based GFS completely discounts this idea with the area of low pressure remaining weak. Other U.S.- and Canadian-based models show the potential for a hurricane in the Gulf. Discrepancies like this should be expected, as we are still 2-5 days out from the development of this system. Models generally perform better once the system has actually formed.

LOCATIONS… Unfortunately, it is entirely too early to be specific about potential impacts for specific locations. Folks in Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida should all closely monitor the progress of this system as it develops in the days ahead. That includes  the entirety of our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida. Details will become more clear as we continue to process more model data over the next few days.

TIMEFRAME… Local impacts will depend on IF the system develops into a tropical storm/hurricane AND if the track is geographically close to our local area. Thursday, October 11 through Sunday, October 14 is the best estimate for when local impacts are most likely in south Alabama and northwest Florida and that is IF (and that’s a big if, at this point) local impacts happen. That is a large timeframe that we will be able to get more specific with in the days ahead. Again, plenty of variables and uncertainties!

NEXT RZW EXEC UPDATE…  Tomorrow (Friday, October 5) by 1:30PM CDT.

Let me know if you have any questions or concerns. Have a good evening!

Good Monday morning, RZW Exec partners! We’re tracking 5 (yes, 5) tropical systems in the Atlantic basin today. Let me say upfront that while we have several systems in the tropics, at the moment, there are no tropical-related threats for south Alabama and northwest Florida. A tropical wave will come fairly close to our area later this week when it likely moves into Texas. Hurricane Florence will likely bring catastrophic impacts to parts of North Carolina and South Carolina in the days ahead. I’ve got an update for you on that system below if you have folks on the ground there or assets in the area. Please also see my personal note at the conclusion of this post.

BROAD OVERVIEW

Hurricanes Florence, Isaac, and Helene are active in the Atlantic, spaced between the U.S. and Africa. We’re also watching a tropical wave currently producing heavy rain over the western Caribbean Sea that will move into the western Gulf of Mexico in the days ahead. Another tropical disturbance is developing well east of Bermuda and won’t affect land over the next few days. Here is the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) showing all of this…

TROPICAL WAVE MOVING NORTHWEST

An area of clouds and storms is currently situated in the western Caribbean Sea near the Yucatan Peninsula (Mexico/Belize). This is a tropical wave at the moment. NHC suggests there is an increasing risk (40% chance at the moment) of tropical storm formation as this system continues slowly moving northwest. While it’s important to forecast all of these systems with multiple models, the ECMWF (Euro) model continues to perform well this hurricane season. The Euro has a tropical storm moving into Texas, perhaps just south of Houston/Galveston, on Thursday into Friday. Impacts from this tropical wave seem UNLIKELY as of now for south Alabama and northwest Florida. Above is a look at the Euro output valid on Friday, September 15 at 7PM.

DANGEROUS FLORENCE NOW A CAT. 4

Latest #Florence view… Strengthening is not over. BE READY if you’re in North Carolina or South Carolina. The potential impacts of this storm cannot be overstated: High (150+ mph) winds near the eyewall, 1-2 FEET of rain perhaps, inland flooding, massive surge, tornadoes. pic.twitter.com/q9iaugOnjs

— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) September 10, 2018

It cannot be overstated that potentially catastrophic impacts will be possible along the South Carolina and North Carolina coast where Hurricane Florence ultimately makes landfall. Just in as of the latest 11AM advisory, Florence is now a category 4 hurricane with maximum winds at 130 mph. Unfortunately, due to warmer sea surface temperatures and relaxing wind shear high in the atmosphere, Florence is entering an even more favorable environment for further strengthening. The system very well could become a category 5 hurricane tonight or on Tuesday as rapid strengthening continues. Everyone with interests in southern Virginia, the entirety of North Carolina and South Carolina, and western Georgia should closely monitor the progress of Hurricane Florence. Folks near Hilton Head Island (SC), Charleston (SC), Myrtle Beach (SC), Wilmington (NC), Jacksonville (NC), and Morehead City (NC) are now in a significant risk zone where hurricane impacts will be possible. Direct impacts from Hurricane Florence are not expected in south Alabama or northwest Florida. Note in the graphic below how in the 3-5 day forecast timeframe that the system slows its forward speed drastically, meaning a potentially MAJOR flood threat will set up across the Carolinas due to all of the heavy rain.

I am very concerned for our friends in the Carolinas! If you have interests there, please let them know how serious of a situation this is.

HURRICANE ISAAC MOVING WEST

Hurricane Isaac is located in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean about halfway between the Lesser Antilles and the African continent. Maximum winds are at 75 mph. Note that out of all the systems we’re currently watching, the forecast confidence with Isaac remains the lowest. This is due to significant model divergence in the 4-5 day forecast timeframe. NHC calls for Isaac to maintain its strength as it approaches the Leeward Islands before weakening to a tropical storm as environmental shear increases over the Caribbean. I am not comfortable saying this publicly yet, but I am encouraged that most of the major global models show Isaac dissipating over the central Caribbean in 5-6 days as shear increases. Again, lots of uncertainty, but we’ll keep watching. Anytime there is a storm in this corridor of the Atlantic that has any type of potential of moving into the Gulf of Mexico, we must monitor diligently!

HURRICANE HELENE STAYS AWAY

Hurricane Helene is in the far eastern Atlantic closer to Africa than North America. The system will likely continue moving west-northwest over the next 24 hours before making a sharp, right northerly turn in about 3 days. All major global models point to Helene staying away from land over the next 7 days with dissipation happening in about 8-9 days. Obviously local impacts won’t happen if this is the case. Good news!

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN ATLANTIC

Yet another tropical storm could form in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean well east of Bermuda in the days ahead. All models point to this system moving east, away from the continental United States. We’ll watch it, but local impacts are not expected.

LOCAL FORECAST

After discussing five tropical systems that will have varying levels of impact in the United States, where does that leave south Alabama and northwest Florida? In a seasonal mid-September weather pattern, of course! Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected in each of the next 7 days with high temperatures near 90° and morning lows in the 70s. Severe weather is not expected over the next week, although these pop-up storms can certainly be on the strong side at times with very heavy rain and lots of lightning.

PERSONAL NOTE

There was no morning video on this Monday. I posted a graphic (here) with a long text discussion instead. Today is a really difficult day for me, for my community, and for friends that I love very dearly. We unexpectedly lost a great friend (Curtis Glaize) who grew up with us here in Brewton. My heart breaks today for the Glaize family, Curtis’s fiancée, and all of my many friends who are grieving the loss of such a joyful, fun person. I know his family and all of his many friends would covet and appreciate your prayers in the days ahead. Thank you.

Let me know if you have questions, concerns, or comments. Have a nice Monday evening.

Good Tuesday morning, RZW Exec partners! Tropical Storm Gordon continues to move northwest across the Gulf of Mexico this morning. Impacts have already started at the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches as the first outer rain bands are moving in. Heavy rain is falling near Perdido Key, Gulf Shores, and Orange Beach at the time this update is being typed around 10:15AM. This is a highly detailed post with information about what you can expect in each of our respective local counties. IMPORTANT: This will be the final RZW Exec update, as my focus at this point is shifting to our public products. You can always view the latest info from me in the Latest tab (bottom left corner here in the RZWeather app). It serves as a “tap to refresh” button for the homepage of the app.

GORDON IN THE GULF NOW

Below is the latest graphic issued by the National Hurricane Center regarding the projected path for the center of circulation of Tropical Storm Gordon. This is the latest 10AM CDT advisory graphic…

Maximum winds as of now are pegged at 65 miles per hour. The center of Gordon is expected to make landfall sometime this evening into the wee hours of Wednesday morning as a category 1 hurricane. This is good news as the weakening trend at that point will commence. Impacts from Gordon will start across our area shortly and last well into Wednesday, long after the center passes. This is because our area will be on the volatile eastern flank of the center of circulation.

GORDON – LOCAL IMPACTS

MORE IMPACTS AT THE COAST… This is a repeat from yesterday’s discussion but it is still 100% accurate: Because of the “angle of attack” of the storm, moving southeast to northwest, it is reasonable to conclude that the greatest impacts in our local area will very likely happen in the southern halves of Mobile and Baldwin counties in southwest Alabama. That is what I’m considering as “Zone 1,” as MOST likely to see impacts. “Zone 2,” as SOMEWHAT likely to have impacts, would be areas in northwest Florida near the immediate coast, basically south of Interstate 10. “Zone 3,” for all areas north of Interstate 10 COULD have impacts, but impacts are less likely to happen there. If that is confusing, see the maps below as those will likely provide better context.

HEAVY RAIN & FLASH FLOODING THREAT… Rain amounts due to Gordon are likely to be just a touch higher than previously indicated. We note the Weather Prediction Center has adjusted their projected totals of 3-4″ of rain to include more parts of Escambia [FL] and Santa Rosa counties. Rain amounts have also slightly been increased for areas near Chatom, Wagerville, Uriah, Atmore, and Flomaton. This is in response to the big area of convection that has fired on the northern side of Gordon, likely to bring more rain earlier than anticipated starting this afternoon. Overall, the flash flooding threat will continue to be greatest in Mobile, Baldwin, and Escambia [FL] counties, especially near the immediate coastline.

ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE… Now that we have rain bands from Gordon moving in, isolated tornadoes will be possible imminently. The threat will be mainly at the coastline over the next few hours (waterspouts that briefly move inland, triggering a tornado warning). The tornado risk will gradually spread inland throughout the day as more rain bands move in. These will NOT be long-track, violent tornadoes that are more common in the spring months. These will be “weak,” spin-up tornadoes that last only a few minutes. It really doesn’t matter that much though, because if a tornado affects YOU, it’s a big deal. Be ready to move to shelter in case of one of these spin-up tornadoes. Our tornado warning policy is outlined here, and it certainly will apply today! Below is the latest convective outlook issued by the Storm Prediction Center… Levels 1 and 2 risk are in place for the entirety of our local area due to the increasing tornado threat. Note that the Level 2 risk is in place for coastal areas where tornadoes are more likely to happen…

WIND IMPACTS UNLIKELY INLAND… Significant wind impacts are still NOT expected across inland areas of south Alabama or northwest Florida. Yes, there could be breezy conditions at times, but overall, the wind impacts should be confined to the immediate coastline. This has not changed. Gusty winds will happen closer to the coastline this afternoon. The greatest chance of stronger winds will happen this evening from 6PM to 3AM on Wednesday morning at the Alabama beaches and Dauphin Island, where the core of Gordon will pass very near tonight.

STORM SURGE WARNING… A Storm Surge Warning remains in effect for Dauphin Island as there could be some minor to moderate storm surge (tides running 3-6′ above normal). A Storm Surge Watch is also in effect from Dauphin Island eastward to Navarre, FL.

OFFICIAL PRODUCTS…  Again, plenty of official products in place by the National Weather Service. Here are those products…

1) A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the southern halves of Mobile and Baldwin counties. This is more of a cautionary thing, as hurricane force winds are possible near the beaches and perhaps near Bayou La Batre and Coden in southern Mobile County. I would suggest that tropical storm force winds are definitely more likely, but the hurricane force wind gusts should be confined to the immediate coastline.

2) A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Escambia [FL] County, coastal areas of Santa Rosa and Okaloosa counties, in addition to the northern halves of Mobile and Baldwin counties. Again, tropical storm force winds will be possible within 5 miles or so of the coastline, but that’s about it. Inland areas will be spared, most likely.

3) A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for coastal areas of Mobile County.

4) A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for coastal areas of Baldwin, Escambia [FL], Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties.

5) A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for Washington, Escambia [AL], Mobile, Baldwin, Santa Rosa, and Escambia [FL] counties.

6) There are no active watches or warnings in effect as of 10:45AM for Clarke, Monroe, Conecuh, Covington, or Butler counties.

I’ll be working on our public-facing products over the next 24-36 hours. Feel free to text me at (251) 363-8833 if there is anything I can do to help you make weather-related decisions. I might be slower to reply now that the storm is moving in, but I’ll do my best to get back to you promptly.

Let me know if you have any questions or concerns. Have a nice week and again, please join me in our public-facing products throughout the day!