Happy Labor Day, RZW Exec partners! Tropical Storm Gordon has formed over the southern tip of Florida near The Everglades this morning. Gordon is forecast to rapidly move northwest in the hours/days ahead. The system will bring heavy downpours of rain to portions of our area over the next 48-60 hours. While heavy rain and flash flooding are real concerns, I’m growing more confident that the overall impact in inland areas from Tropical Storm Gordon in our local area (south Alabama and northwest Florida) should be LOW. That’s not to say there won’t be a surprise or two in that there may be a few, fairly weak isolated tornadoes. Let’s look at the situation as it stands now and have a look at potential impacts… If you have questions after this short briefing, as always, feel free to shoot me a text message at (251) 363-8833.

GORDON OVER SOUTH FLORIDA NOW

Below is the latest graphic issued by the National Hurricane Center regarding the projected path for the center of circulation of Tropical Storm Gordon.

Maximum winds as of now are pegged at 45 miles per hour. These stronger winds are happening very near the center of Gordon, which is located just south of Marco Island, FL. This puts the center of Gordon emerging over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico from The Everglades right now. Gordon is about to RAPIDLY move northwest across the Gulf of Mexico, with landfall most likely happening on Tuesday evening along the Louisiana or Mississippi Gulf Coast as a strong tropical storm or category 1 hurricane. Whether it’s a “weak” hurricane or a strong tropical storm is something that the public generally gets caught up in, but honestly it’s somewhat of a moot point as impacts will be roughly the same whether max winds are at 65 or 80 mph. (74+ mph “qualifies” a system as a hurricane.)

POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS

MORE IMPACTS AT THE COAST… Because of the “angle of attack” of the storm, moving southeast to northwest, it is reasonable to conclude that the greatest impacts in our local area will very likely happen in the southern halves of Mobile and Baldwin counties in southwest Alabama. That is what I’m considering as “Zone 1,” as MOST likely to see impacts. “Zone 2,” as SOMEWHAT likely to have impacts, would be areas in northwest Florida near the immediate coast, basically south of Interstate 10. “Zone 3,” for all areas north of Interstate 10 COULD have impacts, but impacts are less likely to happen there. If that is confusing, see the maps below as those will likely provide better context.

HEAVY RAIN & FLASH FLOODING THREAT… It’s really a blessing that this system will be moving so quickly, as rain amounts “won’t have time” to stack up compared to if Gordon was a slow-mover. The greatest rain amounts are likely in our local area near the Alabama beaches. Flash flooding is most likely to happen in Mobile and Baldwin counties, where a flash flood watch is in effect. Escambia County, Florida is also included in this flash flood watch. Heavy rain will happen intermittently inland, but I’m not expecting major flash flooding or flooding issues at this time for inland areas. Here is a look at the latest projected rainfall totals due to Gordon…

ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE… The timeframe for when isolated tornadoes will be most likely to occur across our region will be Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon. The isolated tornado threat will end as the center of Gordon moves well to our west. We’ve adjusted this impact potential map just a bit, based on the latest track guidance from NHC.

WIND IMPACTS UNLIKELY INLAND… At this point, significant wind impacts are NOT expected across inland areas of south Alabama or northwest Florida. Yes, there could be breezy conditions at times, but overall, the wind impacts should be confined to the immediate coastline.

STORM SURGE WARNING… NWS Mobile has opted to issue a Storm Surge Warning for the entirety of the Alabama coastline as there could be some minor storm surge (tides running 2-5′ above normal). A Storm Surge Watch is also in effect for the northwest Florida beaches.

OFFICIAL PRODUCTS… There is so much going on that all of these products can get confusing. Let’s break it down…

1) A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning are in effect for the southern halves of Mobile and Baldwin counties.

2) A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Escambia [FL], Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties.

3) A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for coastal areas of Mobile and Baldwin counties.

4) A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for coastal areas of Escambia [FL], Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties.

5) A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for Mobile, Baldwin, and Escambia [FL] counties.

6) There are no active watches or warnings in effect as of 11:15AM for Washington, Clarke, Monroe, Conecuh, Escambia [AL], Covington, or Butler counties.

I’ll be working on our public-facing products over the next 12 hours. Feel free to contact me at (251) 363-8833 if there is anything I can do to help you make weather-related decisions.

Let me know if you have any questions or concerns. Have a nice Labor Day!

RZW Exec partners, the chances of tropical storm development have drastically increased. I’m getting ready to do a special live video update on Facebook Live to bring the public the very latest on this developing situation. Below is a first look for you at the text we will debut attached to the live video… For now, inland areas should be okay with no major impacts. Coastal areas may have a few impacts, as outlined below. Please feel free to contact me if you have any questions.

90% CHANCE: TROPICAL STORM GORDON IN GULF THIS WEEK… The National Hurricane Center has increased their official projection of tropical storm formation in the eastern Gulf of Mexico this week to a 90% chance. We can say with higher confidence that at least some impacts are likely in portions of south Alabama and northwest Florida in the days ahead, particularly the threat of heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding. Other impacts, including the potential for isolated tornadoes, are also possible. A Rip Current Warning has been issued for all local beaches, valid NOW through Thursday. We’re also monitoring Tropical Storm Florence way out in the Atlantic and we’ve got your forecast for the end of the week when we should be drier. Plenty to discuss in this special live update. Please read the entirety of this long, detailed post as it will answer many questions.

TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPMENT LIKELY… The latest Tropical Weather Outlook from the National Hurricane Center now indicates there is a 80-90% chance of tropical storm formation in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico over the next few days. If the system develops into a classified tropical storm, it will take the name “Gordon.” This will be a fast-moving system, regardless of classification, as it moves toward the northern Gulf Coast. While the center of circulation will likely pass near or just to the south of our local area, the probability of local impacts are growing. Again, this post is for south Alabama and northwest Florida. If you’re in Mississippi, Louisiana, or Texas, we encourage you to check out local, reliable weather sources there to get the latest info as it WILL be different compared to our local area.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS FOR SOUTH ALABAMA & NW FLORIDA…

FLASH FLOODING & HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL… (Confidence: Medium-High) There is now higher confidence that the greatest potential impact for our local area will be tropical downpours of heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding. The latest Quantitative Precipitation Forecast issued by the Weather Prediction Center has areas near the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches reciving upwards of 3-5 inches of rain over the next five days. There will be a substantial drop off in rain amounts across our area as you head northward. This means that places like Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, and Dauphin Island may pick up 4 to 5 inches of rain, while places inland like Thomasville, Beatrice, Greenville, Evergreen, Andalusia, and Opp may only get 1-2” of rain (or less). Our coastal counties will have the greatest risk of flash flooding as the tropical system approaches on Tuesday into Wednesday, meaning Mobile, Baldwin, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, and Walton counties.

TORNADO POTENTIAL… (Confidence: Low) Coastal counties also will have the highest risk of seeing an isolated tornado as this system moves by. Timing on this potential impact is still too be determined as the tornado risk will clearly be greatest as the core of the system moves by and when our area is on the eastern flank of the system. At this point, that looks to be Tuesday P.M. into Wednesday A.M. That could change in the days ahead.

WIND IMPACTS POTENTIAL… (Confidence: Medium) Mobile and Baldwin County, particularly near the beaches, could have 30-50mph wind gusts as this tropical system moves by. Northwest Florida beaches and locales near there could have 30-40mph wind gusts. Generally, the closer you are to the immediate coastline, the greater your chances are of having higher wind gusts. At this point, wind impacts are not expected for inland areas.

RIP CURRENT WARNING… (Confidence: Very High) More people have died in south Alabama and northwest Florida due to rip currents at local beaches compared to all other weather-related hazards combined in the last 22 years. A *Rip Current Warning* is in effect for all Alabama and northwest Florida beaches through Thursday, meaning if you can’t swim well, you need to stay out of the water. It’s that simple. Rip currents are deadly and I would imagine double red flags will fly at most beaches locally midweek.

COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE… (Confidence: Low) Minor instances of coastal flooding may become possible midweek, especially at the Alabama beaches, as this tropical system moves by. Waves will be big, obviously, as this system approaches.

IMPACTS REGARDLESS OF CLASSIFICATION… Regardless of if this system is a tropical wave or tropical depression or tropical storm as it moves by, the heavy rain and flash flooding impacts are likely. Midweek will be especially wet for our region. Depending on the specific track and placement of the system, the other above mentioned impacts will be possible.

SCATTERED STORMS TODAY & MONDAY… Another seasonal round of showers and thunderstorms will happen over the next few hours across our region. These storms are not associated with the tropical system. Same thing for Monday, when seabreeze-induced storms will pop up in the heat of the day. High temps today and tomorrow will be in the upper-80s.

DRIER END TO WEEK… We note that the tropical system will kick out of our area on Wednesday most likely, leading to a somewhat drier end to the week with only (seasonal) isolated to scattered instances of heavy rain. Friday Night Lights looks seasonal with temps in the 80s with a 30-40% chance of showers and storms.

APP & ALERTS… If you haven’t already, NOW is the time to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep you posted about this developing tropical storm. It’s totally free. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your smartphone or tablet, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) then tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive straight from me. No automated alerts! They’re all handcrafted by me.

Busy few days ahead. We’ll keep you posted. Let me know if you have any weather-related questions!

RZW Exec partners, good evening! Below is the public messaging we will be pushing this evening… No significant changes to pass along today, other than the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has outlooked the area of concern in the eastern Gulf of Mexico next week in their daily “Tropical Weather Outlook.” NHC is going with a 10% probability of development into a tropical storm next week, with a note that development is *highly unlikely* this weekend as the environment around the system is not supportive of strengthening. I won’t be saying this publicly just yet, but I am encouraged as all of the global model runs today have been supportive of a much weaker solution with a tropical wave crossing the Gulf to our south. We look for trends in model data and discount extreme solutions. Run-to-run model data can wildly change and it’s important to not get so caught up on the model details in each run that we forget the “big picture.” The overall view is that there still is a low-end chance of tropical storm development next week.

NEXT RZW EXEC UPDATE:  Since it looks like we will be in somewhat of a “waiting pattern” this weekend, this will be the final scheduled RZW Exec alert. I’ll bring you the latest when we know more concrete details. I would expect that to be Sunday or Monday at the latest.

Here is the public post that will be debuting in the RZWeather app and across our social media platforms shortly…

TROPICAL UPDATE: TROPICAL WAVE MOVING TOWARD GULF… The National Hurricane Center now says there is a 10-20% chance of tropical storm development in the eastern Gulf of Mexico next week. Keep in mind, that is a low-end chance very much in line with what we first told you about last evening. The details we know and the details we do NOT know have not changed in the last 24 hours in that the headline remains: There is a low-end chance of a tropical storm forming in the Gulf next week that has a chance of affecting Alabama and northwest Florida. There’s also a chance the system may remain a “weak” tropical wave and have virtually no local impacts. That’s the summary. Here are your details on this Thursday evening…

MODEL INCONSISTENCIES CONTINUE… Unfortunately, the medium-range weather model guidance has not come into better agreement just yet. The American-based GFS model continues to suggest a more quiet pattern with very little in the way of local impacts, while the ECMWF (Euro) model has hinted in some runs at a slightly stronger system (perhaps in the form of a tropical storm). Often, it’s difficult for models to get a good grip on tropical systems until they actually develop. In this case, because “formal development” may not ever happen, there’s a good chance this will be a difficult system to forecast. That’s not to say that clarity won’t come as time passes, as it definitely will, BUT we may not be able to get specific with potential impacts (if any) until next week.

DON’T CHANGE ANY PLANS YET… It’s way too early to consider trip/vacation cancellations/postponements. We’re in a “wait and see” mode at this point. There is a high chance at this point that impacts from this system may be negligible. It’s all about chances. There’s also a chance (on the other end of the spectrum) that we could be dealing with a tropical storm next week. The “truth” of what actually happens probably is in the middle of those two ‘extremes.’ The good news is no major model has pointed to this system ramping up anywhere close to being a hurricane. That’s a trend we want to continue!

HURRICANE FLORENCE IN THE MAKING… The National Hurricane Center has initiated advisories on “Potential Tropical Cyclone #6” today. That system is located just off the coast of Africa near the Cabo Verde Islands. PTC #6 will highly likely become a tropical storm anytime in the next 24 hours… It will take the name “Florence.” What will be Tropical Storm Florence will likely become a hurricane this weekend or early next week. Good news is that all major model guidance points to this system remaining out at sea in the Atlantic Ocean with NO impacts to any land after it passes the Cabo Verde Islands tomorrow.

STORMS ON FRIDAY AND THIS WEEKEND… Pop-up showers and thunderstorms are expected to happen again on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday across south Alabama and northwest Florida. These storms are NOT associated with a tropical system, they’re rooted in the seabreeze that moves inland everyday in the summer season. Severe weather is not expected this weekend and the tornado risk remains at basically zero. I’ll have a full look at your Friday forecast and Friday Night Lights outlook in the Friday morning #rzw forecast video that will be posted by 7:15AM on Facebook and here in the RedZone Weather app.

Let me know if you have any questions. Have a great evening!

RZW Exec partners, good evening! We will begin our public messaging in the next few minutes discussing the developing potential for a tropical storm in the eastern Gulf of Mexico next week. I’ve copied in the discussion I’ll be posting plus an exclusive, first look at the graphic we will use.

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TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEASTERN GULF NEXT WEEK… There is a low, but increasing, chance that a tropical depression or tropical storm may form in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico late next week. Uncertainties loom large, as this system is still about a week out, but several reliable models point to “tropical mischief” forming near the Florida Peninsula in the days ahead. Main headline on this Wednesday evening is that there is considerable uncertainty (thus absolutely no need for fear, panic, or stress), yet some weather models show a potential tropical storm affecting south Alabama and northwest Florida late next week. Let’s talk details about what we do know…

EURO MODEL: TROPICAL STORM… We look at a variety of weather models each day to generate a forecast. One of the models that often proves reliable is the ECMWF (European) model. This model has suggested for the last few days that a tropical depression or tropical storm could form near The Bahamas before crossing the Florida Peninsula and emerging in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The European model brings the system rapidly to the northwest over the warm waters of the Gulf, before moving the system inland along the northern Gulf Coast (LA/MS/AL/FL). This is ONE idea on the table and must not be taken at face value as exactly what WILL happen. It’s one idea of what COULD happen.

GFS MODEL: OPEN WAVE IN CENTRAL GULF… Adding to the uncertainty is that the American-based Global Forecast System (GFS) has consistently suggested that this same system will remain weak, in the form of an open tropical wave, as it moves from east to west across the Gulf of Mexico. We note that the GFS has been more bullish on the idea of taking the system well to our south and ultimately into Texas or Louisiana late next week as a much weaker system. The Canadian and Japanese models also lean toward this “weaker, more westerly” solution.

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY… The “truth” of what will likely happen is probably somewhere in the middle of these two solutions. No one, and I mean NO ONE, knows IF this area of low pressure will develop into a tropical storm or remain an open tropical wave. The key message as of now is that we are monitoring a low-end potential for a tropical storm that COULD threaten Alabama and northwest Florida. Certainly doesn’t mean that will happen. It’s one possibility.

DON’T CHANGE ANY PLANS YET… It’s way too early to consider trip/vacation cancellations/postponements. We’re in a “wait and see” mode at this point. More guidance will provide clarity later this week into the weekend.

WARM WATERS IN GULF OF MEXICO… It’s totally normal for the Gulf of Mexico to feature sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of mid- to upper-80s this time of year, and that’s exactly what we’re seeing. Several buoys are reporting water temperatures of 86, 87, and 88° in the northeast part of the Gulf where this potential tropical system could move. Water temperatures in that range are conducive for significant tropical/hurricane development, although that’s only ONE ingredient in this process. I meet folks that stress out over high water temperature values in the Gulf, when in truth, that’s one piece of the 20 piece puzzle. Moisture content in the atmosphere, shear values near and around the storm, and surrounding pressure systems (like the Bermuda high, as one example) are all other factors that must be weighed properly when forecasting tropical systems.

DISTINCT SYSTEM EMERGING FROM AFRICA… The National Hurricane Center is also monitoring a vigorous tropical wave that will emerge from the African continent into the far eastern waters of the Atlantic Ocean on Thursday. This system now has a 70 percent chance of developing into a tropical storm as it moves westward in the days ahead. Plenty of uncertainty with the future track, but early model indications point to this system recurving into the open waters of the Atlantic between Europe and Bermuda and affecting no land masses. That would be a great thing IF that solution verifies. We’ll keep you posted about this separate, distinct system as well.

CRAZY POSTS AHEAD: BEWARE… As I consistently caution when we start looking at tropical development potentials: If you’re reading this on social media, odds support that you’re going to see some crazy, bizarre, “fear mongering” posts in the days ahead. It’s a sad part of today’s world. Again, the truth is, we don’t have a firm grip just yet of anything concrete. What we know at this point is there is a growing consensus that a tropical storm could form/move across the eastern part of the Gulf of Mexico late next week. Please join me in not sharing bad info… That just feeds the trolls, hype machine, fear mongers, and click-baiters. It is stunning that we have trained meteorologists that feed into this fear-based narrative, yet it happens A LOT in these situations. Please ignore the HYPE. My working guidance for folks is — if there aren’t a lot of details/clarity (aka if a post is two lines long without explanation), it probably isn’t worth your time and certainly not worth your “share” on social media.

APP… The RedZone Weather app is free. It’s available for iOS and Android devices at redzoneweather.com/app. Be sure to turn ON “Medium-Level Alerts” for the latest information about this system by visiting the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tapping the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize which alerts you would like to receive from me.
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NEXT RZW EXEC UPDATE:  The next RZW Exec notification will be will be sent no later than 8PM on Thursday, August 30 (tomorrow) concerning this tropical potential. You can also find the latest information in our public morning forecast video and discussion with public updates throughout the day on Twitter and here in the RZWeather app tomorrow. Let me know if you have any questions. Have a great evening!

POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL MISCHIEF… There is a low, but increasing, chance of a tropical depression or tropical storm forming late next week in the southeast Gulf of Mexico near southern Florida. Details are scarce at this point since this system is still over one week out, however I want to bring you the latest before we start mentioning this publicly on Wednesday morning in our morning forecast video discussion. Let me heavily stress this is a low confidence situation with many variables at this point. Further forecast refinements will be necessary in the days ahead. There will be another RZW Exec update tomorrow evening about this tropical mischief potential. There is plenty we just don’t know yet, but let’s focus on what we do know…

EURO: TROPICAL STORM… Here’s the main reason of concern at the moment. The European (ECMWF) model is suggesting a moderate (50-60mph) tropical storm being near or just to the south of our local area in the middle part of next week. The view you see above is the raw Euro model output (courtesy tropicaltidbits.com) valid at 12Z (7AM CDT) on Thursday, September 6. Again, this is raw model output over one week out. A lot can and will change, thus why I’m not comfortable mentioning this publicly just yet. The Euro model paints a picture of a northwest-moving tropical storm moving from near South Florida into Mississippi and Louisiana late next week. This would likely mean that local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida would be possible, including a risk of isolated tornadoes.

The American GFS model shows a very different solution, however…

GFS: BARELY ANYTHING… The Global Forecast System (GFS) today has consistently suggested an open trough passing to our south in the Gulf of Mexico. This would mean our seasonal weather pattern would continue with basically NO local impacts. Afternoon storms, yes. Heat and humidity, yes. Tropical storm conditions, NO, if this solution is correct.

The images above are raw model output of wind speeds at approximately 5,000 feet off the ground (the 850 millibar level) and surface-based isobars. (“behind the scenes” view of how the forecast is made everyday!)

SEVERITY & POTENTIAL HAZARDS: It is simply too early to say with confidence just how severe and/or impactful to south Alabama and northwest Florida this potential system will be. There is chance that no formal tropical development occurs and the system remains an open tropical wave that stays to our south. There’s also a chance that the system ramps up to a hurricane and moves northwest toward our local area. The truth of what happens is probably somewhere in the middle of those two extreme solutions. We’ll have much more clarity in the days ahead as more model data pours in.

TIMEFRAME: Impacts, if any occur, would likely happen in south Alabama and northwest Florida between Wednesday, September 5 and Saturday, September 8.

NEXT RZW EXEC UPDATE:  Another RZW Exec notification will be will be sent no later than 8PM on Wednesday, August 29 (tomorrow) concerning this tropical potential.

Let me know if you have any questions or concerns. Have a good evening!