Good afternoon, RZW Exec partners!

Heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding will be possible across our region over the next 3 days. The National Weather Service has just issued a Flash Flood Watch for several counties in our local area. There also is a low-end risk of stronger thunderstorms that could have the potential to produce damaging straight line winds through Thursday. While this will NOT likely be a widespread high impact event, isolated instances of flash flooding can lead to property damage as we’ve seen many times this summer, particularly to our north in central Alabama. Here is an in-depth look at details…

LOCATIONS: A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for the following counties in our local area until 7PM CDT on Thursday: Mobile, Baldwin, Escambia (AL), Conecuh, Covington, Butler, and Monroe. In northwest Florida, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, and Walton counties are included. We also note several other counties to our east in the Florida Panhandle and many counties in east Alabama are included in this Flash Flood Watch. Clarke, Marengo, Choctaw, Wilcox, and Washington counties are NOT included in the Flash Flood Watch as of now.

SEVERITY & POTENTIAL HAZARDS: Scattered instances of flash flooding will be possible this afternoon through Thursday evening. The greatest rain amounts will likely happen in coastal areas of northwest Florida, where upwards of 5 inches of rain could fall. (See this depicted below in the latest Quantiative Precipitation Forecast) At this time, I am not expecting significant river/creek flooding, but this will be an area of concern over the next few days depending on actual rain amounts. Widespread, major issues are not expected at this time. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing potentially damaging wind gusts will also be possible in the daytime hours through Thursday evening. The tornado risk remains low to nil. While lightning is not categorized as “severe,” there will be plenty of lightning and thunder in the stronger storms over the next few days.

TIMEFRAME: Now through Thursday evening.

NEXT RZW EXEC UPDATE: Activation of RZW Exec is not expected. Updates/alerts will be posted here if needed.

Let me know if you have any questions or concerns. Have a good evening!

Good afternoon RZW Exec partners. Hope it’s a nice Friday for you!

There is a growing chance that parts of north and central Alabama could have a few strong to severe thunderstorms this evening into early Saturday morning capable of producing damaging wind gusts. The severe weather risk for south Alabama and northwest Florida is much lower. expect scattered thunderstorms to pop up across our region this evening with another round of storms on Saturday. Here are the details…

SEVERITY: Low-end risk of strong storms for northern sections of south Alabama…

LOCATIONS: Level 1 (out of 5), low-end, “marginal” risk for Washington, Clarke, Monroe, Conecuh, and Butler counties. All other counties in SW Alabama and NW Florida are not included in a formal severe weather risk zone. There is a Level 2 “slight” risk in place for much of central Alabama and a Level 3 “enhanced” risk for north Alabama.

HAZARDS: Damaging wind gusts in the stronger storms will be the main threat. A few, brief tornadoes are also possible in the stronger storms in north Alabama. The tornado risk for the southern half of Alabama is basically zero. Large hail will also be possible across northwest Alabama.

TIMEFRAME: If any severe storms are able to hold their strength and slide into the northern sections of south Alabama (and that’s a big IF) at this point, they most likely would arrive in Clarke, Monroe, Butler, Washington, and Conecuh counties after 4AM Saturday. Most of the storms will have weakened to below severe limits by then, however.

IMPACTS: Please monitor radar trends and have a way to receive urgent warnings, just in case severe thunderstorm warnings are required locally. The chance of a tornado warning being issued for counties in south Alabama and northwest remains very low.

Overall, this should be a low impact event for south Alabama. A widespread damaging wind event could happen across the northern third of Alabama. The thunderstorms that pop up this afternoon and Saturday afternoon across our local area could “pack a punch” with gusty winds and lots of lightning, but generally, these storms should remain well under severe limits.

Here is the local view of the convective outlook, showing much of our region included in the “Level 0” general thunderstorm zone (no formal severe risk). Northern stretches of our area remain in the Level 1 zone.

Let me know if you have any questions or concerns. Have a great evening!

LOW-END RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY… Hello RZW Exec partners! There is a low-end risk of a few stronger storms today basically along and north of U.S. Highway 84. This means Choctaw, Washington, Clarke, Wilcox, Butler, and Conecuh counties have a low-end risk of severe weather. The good news is the tornado risk today will be very, very low. The risk will come from the potential for damaging wind gusts in the stronger storms and large hail. Most spots across our region should have no issues. I’ll be posting a detailed public update shortly.

LOW-END CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT… The National Hurricane Center has issued their latest Tropical Weather Outlook suggesting a low-end (10-20% max) chance of tropical storm development as a tropical wave in the Caribbean Sea moves toward the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Latest model trends point to NO local impacts from this system. I will be posting a detailed update around 7:05PM.

Good morning, RZW Exec partners! Here is the verbiage I’ll be using in this morning’s forecast discussion concerning the tropical storm potential for the southern Gulf. The forecast discussion will be posted by 7:15AM publicly here in the RZWeather app and on Facebook. Still plenty of questions with not many answers…

TROPICS: TO BE OR NOT TO BE? That’s definitely the million dollar question this morning, and one that NO one knows the answer to just yet. One suite of models (the American Global Forecast System) continues to consistently point to the development of a tropical storm in the southern Gulf of Mexico or western Caribbean Sea in the middle to latter half of the upcoming week (Wednesday – Saturday timeframe). The ECMWF (European) model suite continues to point to a more neutral, seasonal pattern with no tropical system. Clarity will come over the next 2 days as we continue to get more data in. As I cautioned over the last two days, I would advise everyone across the Gulf Coast region (from Texas to Florida and all points in between) to keep tabs on this evolving system. No need to panic, worry, or have anxiety. The system may or may not materialize over the next few days.