STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY… RZW Exec partners, good evening! We are now looking at the potential for two distinct rounds of severe weather. One will likely happen Wednesday evening and the other will likely happen Thursday morning. The main concerns will be damaging wind gusts, tornadoes, and flash flooding. See the detailed post below that will debut publicly within the next hour. I will have your next RZW Exec update posted tomorrow (Tuesday) afternoon. As always, please let me know if you have any decision support needs. Have a nice evening!

MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE; HEAVY RAIN LIKELY MIDWEEK… Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday into Thursday morning across south Alabama and northwest Florida as a big dip in the jet stream flings multiple shortwave troughs into our region. The main hazard concerns will be damaging wind gusts, tornadoes, and flash flooding. Confidence has increased somewhat, although timing of the system is still a bit uncertain. Our best estimate as of Monday night is that we will have two distinct rounds of active weather. The first will be Wednesday during the P.M. hours and the second will be Thursday morning as a squall line develops and moves east of our area. We encourage everyone to have a way to receive urgent weather warnings starting Wednesday late morning. That is the summary, below are the details.

RAIN ON TUESDAY; SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES BEGIN WEDNESDAY… Rain will be possible on Tuesday across the region. Showers will begin tomorrow (Tuesday) morning across west Alabama primarily in areas west of the Alabama River. Rain coverage will steadily increase throughout the day. I am not expecting severe weather issues on Tuesday due to the lack of atmospheric instability across our area. There will be showers around at times though. Keep the rain gear handy! High temperatures on Tuesday will remain above our climatological norms for early February. Most spots will peak in the mid-70s.

MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY… The big takeaway from our latest forecast is that we have multiple times when strong to severe thunderstorms may happen. Basically in the 24 hour period from 11AM Wednesday to 11AM Thursday, we need everyone to have a way to get urgent weather warnings. There is not a guarantee warnings will be needed, but that is a growing possibility at this point.

ROUND 1 OF 2: “MESSY STORM MODE” WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON… We will likely have quite a bit of rain and embedded thunderstorms happening across coastal Alabama and northwest Florida in the early afternoon hours of Wednesday. The better dynamics and thermodynamics for severe storms will set up during the evening hours, likely between 2PM and 7PM. This could manifest as clusters of storms or a line of storms. There even could be a big mass of rain and storms with a few supercells closer to the coast. We simply do not have a good grasp of the exact setup of how storms will develop just yet, but there is high confidence that heavy rain will happen at times on Wednesday with a few convective hazards (tornadoes and damaging winds) being possible. After this round of storms, we will probably have a lull in storm action late Wednesday evening into the early morning hours.

ROUND 2 OF 2: STRONG LINE OF STORMS ON THURSDAY MORNING… Cold air will be nudging up against warm, humid air along the advancing cold front on Thursday morning. This front will be slowly moving across our region likely around sunrise on Thursday. While timing remains a bit uncertain, a QLCS/squall line of storms is expected to develop along the cold front. This line of storms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts and a few embedded tornadoes. Once this line of storms moves through your particular locale, you’ll get an all clear and the severe weather risk will come to an end. This will likely happen in many spots from 6AM to 11AM on Thursday.

LEVEL 2 RISK IN PLACE FOR LOCAL AREA… The Storm Prediction Center maintains a Level 2 (out of 5) slight severe weather risk zone for nearly all of the local area. The only areas NOT included in this risk zone are in northern parts of Clarke and Washington counties near Thomasville, Coffeeville, and Millry. Everyone else locally IS included. This means all parts of the following counties are included in the Level 2 risk zone: Monroe, Butler, Covington, Conecuh, Escambia (AL), Baldwin, Mobile, Okaloosa, Escambia (FL), and Santa Rosa counties. A Level 2 risk simply means scattered instances of severe storms will be possible, including a few tornadoes and damaging wind gusts.

LEVEL 1 RISK FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA… Much of the central part of Alabama is involved in the low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) marginal risk zone where severe storms may happen, but are less likely. This includes places like Montgomery, Auburn, Demopolis, Selma, Butler, Livingston, Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, Clanton, Oneonta, Jasper, Alex City, Wetumpka, Prattville, and surrounding areas.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED… Regardless of if tornadoes or damaging wind gusts happen, I am increasingly concerned about the potential for flash flooding. 2 to 4 inches of rain is the forecast for most spots across the region with isolated higher amounts. The National Weather Service in Mobile has indicated a Flash Flood Watch may be issued because of this potential. Keep in mind, if you encounter a water-covered roadway, please “turn around, don’t drown.” We lose entirely too many people across America because they drive over a water-covered roadway and get swept away.

APP… Many, MANY updates will be posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.

I will have your next detailed forecast video posted by 7:15AM tomorrow (Tuesday) morning. Let me know if you have any questions. Have a nice evening!

RZW EXEC: SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY… RZW Exec partners, good Friday evening to each of you! After an overall quiet pattern with a mix of dry and rainy days over the last two weeks, our weather pattern will begin to change during the upcoming week. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed the entirety of south Alabama and northwest Florida in their Level 2 (out of 5) slight risk of severe weather valid for Wednesday and Thursday (February 5-6). While details are scarce at this point since this potential severe weather event is still 5 days out, confidence is high enough to include our area in this risk zone. Be sure to check with me over the next few days in the public-facing/home (Refresh tab in lower left corner) area of the RZW app for the very latest information. As always, please let me know if you have decision support needs.

The public post that will debut later this evening is below. Have a great weekend!

GROWING CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY… The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Level 2 (out of 5) risk zone for much of the Deep South valid for Wednesday into Thursday of the upcoming week. It appears, based on early model indications, that all modes of severe weather will be possible. This includes tornadoes, damaging straight line winds, large hail, and flash flooding. It is too early to know specifics on where individual severe weather risks (like tornadoes) will be highest. The risk will set up to our west on Wednesday and continue across our region Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. Be sure to check back with me tomorrow morning and over the next few days as we get closer to this severe weather setup.

DEEP TROUGH & WARM SECTOR LIKELY… You may be wondering how and why the Storm Prediction Center posts an outlook like this so far out. SPC uses multiple weather models and simulations to help better understand the possibilities of what could happen across the continental United States for any given day. Model guidance has been consistent enough to warrant an “early red flag,” suggesting there is a growing potential for the outlooked areas to have severe weather. A trough in the jet stream will dip down across the Great Plains and ultimately move eastward into the Deep South. Combine that with the warm, unstable air that will likely be in place across our region on Wednesday into Thursday, and you get a recipe of ingredients coming together that could produce weather hazards, including tornadoes.

FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING… While the bulk of the rain has cleared out of our area this evening, there could be a few lingering areas of rain tonight into the morning hours of Saturday. Rain should be completely gone and to our east by 2PM on Saturday. Temperatures on Saturday will peak in the upper-50s but we rebound to around 67° by Sunday afternoon.

BETTER WEATHER ON SUNDAY… We will need to enjoy Sunday and Monday as those will be the last sunny days until at least Friday of the upcoming week. Rain and storms will be possible Tuesday ahead of our severe weather risk setting up for Wednesday. High temperatures will rebound to the low-70s by Monday.

APP ALERTS… Now is the time, long before we get to this severe weather potential, to set up the RedZone Weather app on your smartphone! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the iOS or Android version of the app. Once you have the app downloaded to your device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner of the app), then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

I’ll have your next detailed forecast update posted by 7:15AM on Saturday. See you then!

SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LIKELY ON SATURDAY… RZW Exec partners, I hope you are having a nice Friday evening. The big headline remains severe storms remain possible on Saturday. There is a low-end risk of severe storms later this evening (detailed below) but vast majority of the severe storms are expected during the daytime hours of Saturday. Tornadoes and damaging winds continue to be our main concerns. I am growing more concerned by the hour about the potential for damaging wind gusts. The squall line that moves across our region is expected to tap into high winds in the midlevels of the atmosphere. The storms could easily bring some of these higher wind speeds down to the surface of the earth and knock down numerous trees. Power outages will be a real concern on Saturday.

The forecast remains on track. I have no changes to report other than the Level 3 risk has been expanded even farther north into the Tennessee Valley region (depicted below). Basically all of Alabama and all of northwest Florida are now involved in the Level 3 (out of 5) risk zone. I am copying below our forecast discussion from the Noon public post. It remains on point. I’ve already talked to several of you that have called today. That’s what I am here for. Please let me know if you have specific questions or decision support needs. Note this will likely be the final RZW Exec update on this event as our public coverage and live, nonstop video coverage will probably be needed tomorrow. See you on the live stream!

VERY CONCERNING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND RISK ON SATURDAY… We have been focusing heavily on the tornado risk setting up for Saturday across Alabama and northwest Florida, but let me stress that I am quite concerned about the risk of damaging straight line winds setting up for Saturday across Alabama and northwest Florida. The graphic attached highlights the wind values at the 850 millibar height, or at approximately 5,000 feet above ground level in the atmosphere. These winds will be howling at 60-100 mph across the Deep South as a low-level jet streak moves from southwest to northeast across the region. The squall line that will move across the state and region will be able to easily tap into this and bring some of these winds down to the surface of the earth, thus some wind damage IS expected on Saturday in terms of trees being blown down. This could create scattered power outage problems. I have seen reports that Alabama Power and electric cooperatives are staging for this possibility, which I endorse and I think is a good, proactive call on their part. Definitely warranted in this case!

SPC MAINTAINS LEVEL 3 RISK ZONE… The Storm Prediction Center decided that the forecast is right on track and maintains their Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk zone for nearly all of Alabama, northwest Florida, Mississippi, and Louisiana. The only change to report as of Noon is the Level 3 risk has been expanded to include areas farther north in north Alabama and southern Tennessee in the Tennessee Valley region. This expansion is driven largely by the increasing risk of damaging straight line winds in the strong squall line set to move through on Saturday.

TORNADO WATCH TO THE WEST… The first Tornado Watch of the year has been issued for parts of Oklahoma and Arkansas as the severe weather system takes shape to our west. Another Tornado Watch will be issued in the next 2 hours for parts of northeast Texas near Dallas.

The following information from the detailed video post this morning has been lightly edited and remains on point. If you missed that post, please review the information below for specifics.

EXPANDED LEVEL 4 (OUT OF 5) RISK TO OUR WEST TODAY… Much of Arkansas, western Louisiana, eastern Texas, northwest Mississippi, extreme southeastern Tennessee, and southeastern Oklahoma are involved in the Level 4 (out of 5) risk zone where widespread damaging winds are expected in the severe storms later today. Not all risk levels are created equally, and this Level 4 risk is driven PRIMARILY by the high wind threat in that area. There still is a significant risk of tornadoes, perhaps a strong one or two, but clearly the big threat in those areas today will be severe thunderstorms capable of producing widespread wind damage. Areas near Memphis (TN), Shreveport (LA), Tyler (TX), Longview (TX), Mesquite (TX), and Garland (TX) are involved in the higher Level 4 risk, with areas like Houston, Dallas, Fort Worth, Austin, and Tulsa involved in the Level 3 risk zone today. This same system will move into our area on Saturday. Below is the risk valid NOW into TONIGHT.

LEVEL 3 RISK AREA ON SATURDAY… This remains unchanged as of 3:32PM on Friday. Much of Alabama, northwest Florida, Mississippi, and the northeast corner of Louisiana near New Orleans is involved in the Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk zone. ALL of south Alabama and northwest Florida is involved in this enhanced risk area. Here are a few of the locales involved in the Level 3 risk area. Note that even if your specific town isn’t included in this list, if you see surrounding towns or cities involved, you’re still included in the risk zone. Level 3 risk as of Wednesday night: Mobile, Pensacola, Birmingham, Montgomery, Andalusia, Opp, Florala, Georgiana, Greenville, McKenzie, Hayneville, Camden, Brewton, Atmore, Poarch, Huxford, Flomaton, Evergreen, Repton, Castleberry, Monroeville, Beatrice, Uriah, Thomasville, Grove Hill, Jackson, Coffeeville, Silas, Butler, Pennington, Livingston, McIntosh, Leroy, Citronelle, Bay Minette, Mount Vernon, Saraland, Satsuma, Prichard, Theodore, Bayou La Batre, Fort Morgan, Dauphin Island, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Perdido Key, Foley, Fairhope, Daphne, Spanish Fort, Loxley, Stockton, Century, Bratt, Walnut Hill, Molino, Gulf Breeze, Warrington, Milton, Pace, Berrydale, Jay, Navarre, Crestview, Destin, Baker, Fort Walton Beach, Tuscaloosa, Marion, Selma, and Demopolis.

RAIN & STORMS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY… Areas of sprinkles are possible this morning, primarily across west Alabama. Most spots will remain dry through this evening. General thunderstorms (probably well below severe limits) will be possible over the next few hours. High temperatures on this Friday have peaked near 70° in most spots as a warm front lifts from south to north across the area.

ROUND 1 OF 3: LOW-END RISK OF A SEVERE STORM OR TWO THIS EVENING… The first risk for south Alabama and northwest Florida will be a *low confidence, low-medium impact* potential. Basically, the concern is we could have a few rotating storms move in from the Gulf of Mexico later this evening (probably between 6PM and 10PM, according to the latest data). There is a high chance that these storms don’t form, but IF they do, they may quickly turn severe. The hazards in this first round of storms would be a low-end tornado risk, aka brief, spin-up tornadoes. Again, this is a low confidence risk that has a good chance of never happening, but it’s important to at least mention the risk in case we get a rogue storm or two before midnight. The core of this risk would happen primarily across west Alabama where shear and instability values will be increasing this evening.

RAIN AT TIMES OVERNIGHT; MOSTLY DRY TO THE EAST… Rain chances will progressively rise throughout the evening and especially in the overnight hours. You’ll probably notice scattered, small showers progressively increase in number on the radar display. Showers will likely increase in coverage as we approach sunrise on Saturday morning.

ROUND 2 OF 3: SUPERCELLS & TORNADO RISK ON SATURDAY… The second risk for our local area involves the potential for supercell or discrete storms to form out ahead of the main squall line on Saturday. This is a *low-medium confidence, high impact* potential. If supercell storms form, they will do so in an environment that is favorable for tornado formation. In addition, there is some chance that some of the tornadoes could be strong or significant (EF2+). We note that some of the higher-resolution convective allowing models (CAMS) have suggested a very real potential for supercells forming between 9AM and 5PM on Saturday. If or when supercell thunderstorms form, our tornado risk would go up considerably.

ROUND 3 OF 3: SQUALL LINE FEATURING EMBEDDED TORNADOES & HIGH WIND… More often than not as of late, we get a weakening or paltry line of thunderstorms moving through our area that really doesn’t bring much of an impact except heavy rain and occasional lightning. That will almost certainly NOT be the case this time. This will be a significant, severe squall line of thunderstorms that will push across our region from 10AM to 6PM Saturday. This is a *high confidence, medium-high impact* potential, aka what we are most confident about in this particular severe weather setup. If and when your area goes under a severe thunderstorm warning, TAKE IT SERIOUSLY. Don’t drive in a severe thunderstorm warning! I would strongly suggest treating all severe thunderstorm warnings on Saturday like a tornado warning. I *EXPECT* scattered to numerous reports of trees being blown down because of this squall line, thus scattered power outages may quickly become a problem across our region.

SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENT AHEAD ACROSS MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA, & NW FLORIDA… The wind speeds at about 5,000 feet off the ground (the 850 millibar height) are absolutely screaming with this severe weather setup. We’ve covered hundreds of severe weather days over the last 5 years since RedZone Weather started and I cannot recall an event where I’ve seen wind speeds at that height in the atmosphere like this. This will likely be a major wind event, almost like a derecho, across Mississippi and Alabama as this squall line moves through. The big concern is trees being blown down, which is yet another reason people should NOT be driving during severe thunderstorm warnings on Saturday!

THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK FINALLY ENDS SATURDAY EVENING… It’s certainly not often that we get a solid WEEK of notice in advance of severe weather. The whole ordeal will come to an end by 7PM on Saturday as storms exit our area to the east into parts of the Wiregrass and the Florida Panhandle. There could be a few lingering rain showers into Saturday night. Rain clears out and we will likely be dry for Sunday morning.

FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON & EVENING… Showers quickly return to the forecast on Sunday in the afternoon and evening hours. Mostly cloudy skies are expected throughout the day with high temperatures in the low-70s.

RAIN & STORMS LIKELY ON MONDAY… Numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Monday as a warm front lifts northward and stalls across our region. For now, the severe weather risk on Monday looks marginal at most. There could be rumbles of thunder throughout the day with heavy rain being possible at times, but the overall severe weather risk on Monday is LOW for now.

UNSETTLED MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK… Warm, humid air will remain in place across the region until at least Wednesday of next week, allowing the chance of showers and thunderstorms on both days. Rain could be heavy at times and there could be some thunder involved each day, particularly in the afternoon hours. High temperatures will be in the mid-70s on both Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures should finally go lower and be closer to our seasonal norms by Thursday and Friday of the upcoming week.

APP… Many, MANY updates will be posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: FORECAST ON TRACK… RZW Exec partners, good Thursday afternoon! No real changes to pass along from our previous RZW Exec update yesterday. The good news is our forecast and messaging is on track. The bad news is the forecast still supports a significant potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, and a lower (albeit still notable) risk of flash flooding and large hail on Saturday. The one change to pass along today is that the Storm Prediction Center has introduced a rare Level 4 (out of 5) risk zone for parts of Louisiana, southern Arkansas, and eastern Texas valid for tomorrow (Friday). Our area in Alabama and northwest Florida remains involved in the Level 3 risk, which is still quite significant, valid for Saturday.

The graphic below is the latest idea in terms of the timing of when severe weather will start across our area on Saturday. This will likely be a daytime event for most locales.

Below is the forecast discussion from this morning that debuted publicly at 7AM. This has been lightly edited to account for the addition of the higher Level 4 risk across northern Louisiana. Other than that, the forecast remains on track. Please let me know if you have any specific decision support needs or questions.

SHOWERS LIKELY LOCALLY ON FRIDAY; P.M. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE… Rain chances will rise throughout the day on Friday. Rain will start over west Alabama and progressively spread across the area from west to east. High temperatures on Friday will be in the low-70s and temperatures won’t be moving that much at all because of all the cloud cover. There could be a few thunderstorms between 3PM and 8PM Friday, but I am not expecting severe storms in this timeframe. Depending on the specific setup, there could be a few strong to marginally severe storms Friday night into Saturday morning AHEAD of our greater severe weather risk on Saturday during the daytime hours. See more about this in the “1st round” paragraph, below.

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER RISK UP TO OUR WEST ON FRIDAY… SPC continues to outlook much of east Texas, Louisiana, and southern Arkansas in their Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced risk zone valid for FRIDAY, with a smaller area of higher Level 4 risk for areas near Shreveport in northern Louisiana. This includes a chance of significant severe weather, including strong tornadoes, across parts of east Texas and Louisiana. Please be aware of this heightened risk of severe storms if you’re traveling to these areas. This includes places like Shreveport (LA), Alexandria (LA), Lufkin (TX), and Houston (TX).

1ST ROUND: SMALL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY… After 8PM on Friday evening, we will need to start closely monitoring radar trends as there will be a conditional risk of strong to severe thunderstorms across parts of coastal Alabama and northwest Florida. I use the word “conditional” because there remains a high chance “severe weather ingredients” won’t come together this early. Atmospheric instability will be increasing to the point where we will have some thunder and lightning involved in the stronger storms Friday night. Some of this instability may be able to combine with the increasing low-level jet winds and produce a tornado or two. This “1st round” part of the severe weather risk locally will run from 8PM Friday to 6AM on Saturday. Once we get to 6 o’clock Saturday morning, that is when our severe weather risk will really start to ramp up. Details below in the “2nd round” paragraph.

2ND ROUND: SIGNIFICANT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY – TIMING… 6AM to 6PM Saturday is the 12 hour window in which severe weather seems most likely to happen. The core window for severe weather will happen across Alabama and northwest Florida between 10AM and 5PM. Confidence is now much higher in this timeframe now that we are within 48 hours of this severe weather potential. There may be further timing refinements needed over the next day or so. Please check back for the latest on severe weather timing both tonight and on Friday.

SATURDAY SEVERE WEATHER OVERVIEW – WHAT TO EXPECT… We start Saturday morning at 6AM looking to our west at what probably will be a severe squall line of thunderstorms. There is some question as to whether we’ll have supercell/discrete storms out ahead of the main line of storms this early in the morning, but that IS a possibility. A Tornado Watch will probably first be posted for our area in the 4AM to 9AM timeframe. IF discrete storms start firing up or moving into our area from Mississippi, that will probably happen in the early morning (6AM to 9AM timeframe). Tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, flash flooding, and large hail will all be concerns on Saturday. Let’s discuss each hazard in detail, below.

LEVEL 3 RISK AREA ON SATURDAY… Much of Alabama, northwest Florida, Mississippi, and the northeast corner of Louisiana near New Orleans is involved in the Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk zone. ALL of south Alabama and northwest Florida is involved in this enhanced risk area. Here are a few of the locales involved in the Level 3 risk area. Note that even if your specific town isn’t included in this list, if you see surrounding towns or cities involved, you’re still included in the risk zone. Level 3 risk as of Wednesday night: Mobile, Pensacola, Birmingham, Montgomery, Andalusia, Opp, Florala, Georgiana, Greenville, McKenzie, Hayneville, Camden, Brewton, Atmore, Poarch, Huxford, Flomaton, Evergreen, Repton, Castleberry, Monroeville, Beatrice, Uriah, Thomasville, Grove Hill, Jackson, Coffeeville, Silas, Butler, Pennington, Livingston, McIntosh, Leroy, Citronelle, Bay Minette, Mount Vernon, Saraland, Satsuma, Prichard, Theodore, Bayou La Batre, Fort Morgan, Dauphin Island, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Perdido Key, Foley, Fairhope, Daphne, Spanish Fort, Loxley, Stockton, Century, Bratt, Walnut Hill, Molino, Gulf Breeze, Warrington, Milton, Pace, Berrydale, Jay, Navarre, Crestview, Destin, Baker, Fort Walton Beach, Tuscaloosa, Marion, Selma, and Demopolis.

TORNADO RISK ACROSS THE AREA; HIGHEST TORNADO RISK INLAND… Let me be clear in that ALL of our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida has at least some tornado risk on Saturday. As of Thursday morning, it appears the greater tornado risk will happen across inland areas of south Alabama in Washington, Clarke, Monroe, Choctaw, Marengo, Wilcox, and Butler counties and areas farther to the north in west-central Alabama. These are the areas where the greatest amounts of helicity, instability, and wind will come together to create the greatest tornado risk.

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA… There will be substantial amounts of wind in the atmosphere capable of producing severe storms across our area on Saturday. I would not be surprised if we had many reports of trees being blown down because of straight-line wind with this event. It should be reiterated that if your area goes under a Severe Thunderstorm Warning, this will be one of those events where we need to treat it like a Tornado Warning. The severe thunderstorm warnings mean business this time. Wind gusts of 70 mph may be possible when the squall line moves through midday on Saturday.

FLASH FLOODING RISK… If storms train over the same areas for multiple hours (this is a small possibility, especially if discrete storms happen out ahead of the main line of storms), the overall flash flooding risk will be elevated. If this happens, it is most likely to occur across parts of Mobile, Washington, Clarke, Monroe, and Choctaw counties in west Alabama. Most spots across our region will pick up 1 to 3 inches of rain in total because of this event.

LARGE HAIL RISK… The risk of large hail is conditional on IF discrete, supercell thunderstorms can form out ahead of the main line of storms. Hail probably won’t be much of an issue for most locales, although we will need to maintain at least some risk of large hail due to the potential for discrete, isolated storms.

SEVERE WEATHER RISK COMES TO AN END BY SATURDAY EVENING… All of the severe weather issues will end no later than 5PM on Saturday as cooler, more stable air moves into our region from the west. Drier conditions are expected late Saturday night into early Sunday before more showers become possible Sunday.

UNSETTLED WEEK AHEAD… More showers and thunderstorms will be possible from late Sunday into Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday of the upcoming week with temperatures remaining in the 60s and 70s. There have been some indications of a low-end severe weather risk Monday into Tuesday of next week, although it is too early to know for sure whether severe storms will be an issue in that timeframe. We’ll keep you posted. Let’s get through Saturday first.

APP ALERTS… Many consistent updates will be posted over the next few days in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. Everyone should toggle ON Medium-Level Alerts. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.

RZW EXEC: ASSESSING THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK SLATED FOR SATURDAY… RZW Exec partners, good Wednesday evening! We continue to look ahead to Saturday when we could have a significant round of severe weather with tornadoes and damaging winds being possible. No significant weather issues are expected tonight or tomorrow, but Friday could be a bit more interesting. The Storm Prediction Center continues to include our entire local area in their Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk zone. This means that numerous severe storms are expected with a chance of a few strong tornadoes. I have broken everything down in the following long form discussion. We will begin to post much of the in-depth discussion publicly on Thursday morning. Let me know if you have any questions or concerns. I’ll have another update for you in RZW Exec tomorrow (Thursday). Thanks!

NO RAIN UNTIL LATE THURSDAY; CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE TOMORROW… Increasing cloudiness is the story for Thursday. There will be some peeks of sunshine into the afternoon hours, but most spots will be mostly cloudy or overcast by the time we get to sunset on Thursday at 5:03PM CST. High temperatures tomorrow will peak in the 67-70° range in most spots. There could be a few sprinkles or areas of light rain as early as Thursday evening. The greatest chance of any spot having rain before midnight Thursday will be over west Alabama in areas to the west of the Alabama River in parts of Clarke, Washington, Choctaw, and Mobile counties. Rain chances will rise overnight and on Friday morning we could have showers in place across the area.

SHOWERS LIKELY LOCALLY ON FRIDAY; P.M. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE… Rain chances will rise throughout the day on Friday. Rain will start over west Alabama and progressively spread across the area from west to east. High temperatures on Friday will be in the low-70s and temperatures won’t be moving that much at all because of all the cloud cover. There could be a few thunderstorms between 3PM and 8PM Friday, but I am not expecting severe storms in this timeframe. Depending on the specific setup, there could be a few strong to marginally severe storms Friday night into Saturday morning AHEAD of our greater severe weather risk on Saturday during the daytime hours. See more about this in the “1st round” paragraph, below.

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER RISK UP TO OUR WEST ON FRIDAY… SPC continues to outlook much of east Texas, Louisiana, and southern Arkansas in their Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced risk zone valid for FRIDAY. This includes a chance of significant severe weather, including strong tornadoes, across parts of east Texas and Louisiana. Please be aware of this heightened risk of severe storms if you’re traveling to these areas. This includes places like Shreveport (LA), Alexandria (LA), Lufkin (TX), and Houston (TX).

1ST ROUND: SMALL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY… After 8PM on Friday evening, we will need to start closely monitoring radar trends as there will be a conditional risk of strong to severe thunderstorms across parts of coastal Alabama and northwest Florida. I use the word “conditional” because there remains a high chance “severe weather ingredients” won’t come together this early. Atmospheric instability will be increasing to the point where we will have some thunder and lightning involved in the stronger storms Friday night. Some of this instability may be able to combine with the increasing low-level jet winds and produce a tornado or two. This “1st round” part of the severe weather risk locally will run from 8PM Friday to 6AM on Saturday. Once we get to 6 o’clock Saturday morning, that is when our severe weather risk will really start to ramp up. Details below in the “2nd round” paragraph.

2ND ROUND: SIGNIFICANT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY – TIMING… 6AM to 6PM Saturday is the 12 hour window in which severe weather seems most likely to happen. The core window for severe weather will happen across Alabama and northwest Florida between 8AM and 3PM. Confidence is now much higher in this timeframe now that we are within 48 hours of this severe weather potential. There may be further timing refinements needed over the next day or so. Please check back for the latest on severe weather timing both tonight and on Friday.

SATURDAY SEVERE WEATHER OVERVIEW – WHAT TO EXPECT… We start Saturday morning at 6AM looking to our west at what probably will be a severe squall line of thunderstorms. There is some question as to whether we’ll have supercell/discrete storms out ahead of the main line of storms this early in the morning, but that IS a possibility. A Tornado Watch will probably first be posted for our area in the 4AM to 9AM timeframe. IF discrete storms start firing up or moving into our area from Mississippi, that will probably happen in the early morning (6AM to 9AM timeframe). Tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, flash flooding, and large hail will all be concerns on Saturday. Let’s discuss each hazard in detail, below.

TORNADO RISK ACROSS THE AREA; HIGHEST TORNADO RISK INLAND… Let me be clear in that ALL of our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida has at least some tornado risk on Saturday. As of Wednesday evening, it appears the greater tornado risk will happen across inland areas of south Alabama in Washington, Clarke, Monroe, Choctaw, Marengo, Wilcox, and Butler counties and areas farther to the north in west-central Alabama. These are the areas where the greatest amounts of helicity, instability, and wind will come together to create the greatest tornado risk.

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA… There will be substantial amounts of wind in the atmosphere capable of producing severe storms across our area on Saturday. I would not be surprised if we had many reports of trees being blown down because of straight-line wind with this event. It should be reiterated that if your area goes under a Severe Thunderstorm Warning, this will be one of those events where we need to treat it like a Tornado Warning. The severe thunderstorm warnings mean business this time. Wind gusts of 70 mph may be possible when the squall line moves through midday on Saturday.

FLASH FLOODING RISK… If storms train over the same areas for multiple hours (this is a small possibility, especially if discrete storms happen out ahead of the main line of storms), the overall flash flooding risk will be elevated. If this happens, it is most likely to occur across parts of Mobile, Washington, Clarke, Monroe, and Choctaw counties in west Alabama. Most spots across our region will pick up 1 to 3 inches of rain in total because of this event.

LARGE HAIL RISK… The risk of large hail is conditional on IF discrete, supercell thunderstorms can form out ahead of the main line of storms. Hail probably won’t be much of an issue for most locales, although we will need to maintain at least some risk of large hail due to the potential for discrete, isolated storms.

SEVERE WEATHER RISK COMES TO AN END BY SATURDAY EVENING… All of the severe weather issues will end no later than 5PM on Saturday as cooler, more stable air moves into our region from the west. Drier conditions are expected late Saturday night into early Sunday before more showers become possible Sunday.

UNSETTLED WEEK AHEAD… More showers and thunderstorms will be possible from late Sunday into Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday of the upcoming week with temperatures remaining in the 60s and 70s. There have been some indications of a low-end severe weather risk Monday into Tuesday of next week, although it is too early to know for sure whether severe storms will be an issue in that timeframe. We’ll keep you posted. Let’s get through Saturday first.

APP ALERTS… Many consistent updates will be posted over the next few days in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. Everyone should toggle ON Medium-Level Alerts. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.

Please let me know if you have any decision support needs concerning this upcoming severe weather event. Thank you and have a great Wednesday evening!