8:48PM April 3, 2018

LEVEL 2 RISK OVERNIGHT; SHOWERS & STORMS LIKELY… The Storm Prediction Center has upped much of west Alabama into a Level 2 risk zone valid for the overnight hours. A decaying line of showers and thunderstorms will approach our area from the northwest, bringing with it a low-end risk of isolated tornadoes and a medium-low risk of damaging wind gusts. You’ll need to have a way to receive urgent weather warnings overnight! That’s the summary. Here’s the details for your hometown…

GREATEST CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS: WEST ALABAMA… For southwest Alabama and northwest Florida, clearly the greatest risk of seeing a strong or severe storm overnight will be over west Alabama, in Clarke, Washington, Choctaw, Marengo, and Wilcox counties. Here are a few of our local communities involved in the Level 2 risk zone: Thomasville, Coffeeville, Campbell, Silas, Toxey, Butler, Millry, St. Stephens, Leroy, Jackson, Grove Hill, Vinegar Bend, Chatom, Fruitdale, McIntosh, Citronelle, Wilmer, Whatley, Gainestown, Hybart, and Fulton.

LOW-END RISK TO THE EAST… Communities farther east in our area are included in the low-end, Level 1 “marginal” risk zone. These areas could have thunderstorms, but severe weather is less likely. This zone includes places like Brewton, Evergreen, Monroeville, Greenville, Luverne, Troy, Dothan, Enterprise, Geneva, Georgiana, Chapman, Straughn, Andalusia, Opp, Florala, Carolina, Onycha, East Brewton, Riverview, Flomaton, Appleton, Poarch, Atmore, Bay Minette, Foley, Fairhope, Daphne, Spanish Fort, Mobile, Bayou La Batre, Dauphin Island, Gulf Shores.

NW FLORIDA… All of northwest Florida is also included in the Level 1 marginal risk zone: Penscaola, Milton, Molino, Jay, Century, Walnut Hill, Bratt, Berrydale, Crestview, Baker, Navarre, Gulf Breeze, Pensacola Beach, Destin, Mary Esther, Eglin AFB, Laurel Hill, and surrounding areas.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH… North Alabama now has a severe thunderstorm watch in place until 1AM CDT. Huntsville, Muscle Shoals, Florence, Decatur, Moulton, Cullman, Double Springs, Boaz, Fayette, Jasper, and Hamilton are all included. Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, Anniston, Montgomery, Auburn are NOT included in a watch as of 8:30PM.

SEVERE WEATHER TIMING… Again, a decaying line of showers and thunderstorms will move across our area from northwest to southeast. This line will likely reach Washington and Clarke counties between midnight and 2AM. The line moves southeast and reaches Butler, Conecuh, Monroe, Mobile, Baldwin counties by 4AM. Escambia [AL], Covington, and all of northwest Florida by 6AM. The line will likely be weakening as it slides southeastward.

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LINGERING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING… Several models are hinting that we could have some lingering rain showers across the area as the cold front overtakes the showers/storms Wednesday morning. I would keep the rain gear handy through lunch on Wednesday, just in case you happen to be under one of the rain showers. Skies will clear Wednesday evening, setting the stage for a nice, cool Thursday.

MORE STORMS THIS WEEKEND… Thursday and Friday look dry, but showers and thunderstorms will again move into our area from the northwest on Saturday. Models appear to be a bit more robust on rain chances for Saturday, so I’ve opted to up rain chances for Saturday to near 80%. Severe storms appear unlikely as of now, but as I’ve cautioned, we’re in the peak of severe weather season, so each cold front approaching must be monitored carefully. I’ll have more details about this in your Wednesday morning video.

COVERAGE… If tornado warnings become necessary for any part of our defined primary coverage area, we will be LIVE across our platforms bringing you the very latest. Let me know if you have specific weather questions. Have a great evening!

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