SEVERE STORMS LIKELY SATURDAY EVENING… Tornadoes and damaging winds will be the two main concerns as a strong to severe line of thunderstorms moves across the Deep South on Saturday evening. The Storm Prediction Center maintains their Level 3 enhanced risk for ALL counties in south Alabama and northwest Florida. Storms are most likely to happen between 6PM and 11PM on Saturday locally, although timing remains the most fluid part of this forecast. Localized flooding and hail will be secondary concerns. Here are the headlines and details…
We’re approximately 48 hours out from this potential severe weather event. The info below can and will change. Please check with me throughout the day on Friday and Saturday in the RedZone Weather app (redzoneweather.com/app for the free download. Be sure to tap “Alerts” in the bottom right to set up your alerts!) as we bring you the latest information we have.
LEVEL 3 RISK FOR ALL… All of south Alabama, northwest Florida, southeast Mississippi, and much of central Alabama and SE Louisiana are involved in the Level 3 “enhanced” risk zone. Here are a few of the locales involved in the higher risk zone. Note: Just because your community isn’t mentioned doesn’t necessarily mean it is not included. I simply can’t type the thousands of small places involved, but here are a few in south Alabama and northwest Florida: Brewton, Flomaton, Atmore, Poarch, Evergreen, Repton, Lenox, Castleberry, Greenville, Georgiana, McKenzie, Red Level, Andalusia, Straughn, Florala, Opp, Elba, Enterprise, Troy, Ozark, Daleville, Ft. Rucker, Dothan, Geneva, Samson, Monroeville, Excel, Uriah, Beatrice, Thomasville, Grove Hill, Jackson, Coffeeville, Whatley, Leroy, Chatom, Wagerville, Millry, McIntosh, Fruitdale, Mobile, Wilmer, Citronelle, Mt. Vernon, Dauphin Island, Bayou La Batre, Theodore, Daphne, Fairhope, Montrose, Bay Minette, Spanish Fort, Loxley, Robertsdale, Foley, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Perdido Key, Pensacola, Ensley, Molino, Century, Walnut Hill, Jay, Milton, Whiting Field, Chumuckla, Navarre, Gulf Breeze, Crestview, Eglin AFB, Fort Walton Beach, Destin, Miramar Beach, De Funiak Springs, Panama City, Port St. Joe, and Marianna.
Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Montgomery, Clanton, Selma, Demopolis, Livingston, Sylacauga are included in central Alabama. We note the rest of the state is included in the Level 2 “slight” risk zone… Huntsville, Auburn, Centre, Gadsden, Cullman, Boaz, Fayette, Florence, Hamilton.
LINE OF STORMS: MAIN THREAT… Unlike the last few systems that have moved across our across our area, this will likely be a robust strong to severe line of thunderstorms capable of downing trees. The damaging wind gust potential is the main concern, but isolated tornadoes will also be a possibility in this main line of storms. We will also have to closely monitor any storms out ahead of the main line as tornadoes and hail will be the main concern in any supercell storms that happen.
WHEN WILL RAIN/STORMS ARRIVE… This is the part of the equation that has the most uncertainty as of now. Let’s start with the RAIN potential, as many folks do have outdoor plans on Saturday. Most likely, we’ll be dry through at least 3PM. Could there be an isolated shower or storm BEFORE 3PM? Yes, but odds are much lower. After 3PM, I would definitely have an indoor backup plan AND more importantly, a “tornado safe place” ready. The 12 hour window for severe weather remains unchanged… 3PM on Saturday to 3AM on Sunday. The core severe weather risk happens 6PM to 11PM Saturday evening.
LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE… In addition to the tornado and damaging wind potential, there also will be a risk of flash flooding and nuisance-type flooding, mainly across west Alabama. If you live in a flood prone area, please be aware of the potential for 2-4” of rain in isolated spots as this system moves through.
Please have more than one way to receive urgent weather warnings, especially Saturday evening!
APP… I greatly appreciate everyone who has downloaded our free, version 2 of the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com is where you can visit to download the free app. I am SO thrilled to have so many people opting into our free, customizable alerts. To do this, download the app and tap the Alerts tab (bottom right corner), then tap the big, yellow “Alert Settings” button to turn ON the alerts you want to receive from us. Be sure to read the descriptions for what each alert toggle actually is… I send MANY Low-Level Alerts, but I understand that most folks don’t want that much info. Most folks want the high-level and medium-level alerts only, and that’s great. We have a level of coverage for everyone!
COVERAGE… Our coverage commitment to you remains unchanged. Anytime there is a tornado warning for any part of our 12 county coverage area (defined at redzoneweather.com/coverage), we will provide live streaming coverage across our platforms to bring you the very latest.
My next video update will be posted on Facebook on Friday morning by 7:15AM. I’ll have more updates over the next few hours in the RedZone Weather app and over on Twitter @rzweather. Have a great evening! Let me know if you have questions…