9PM UPDATE: ALBERTO ON THE WAY; PREP SHOULD BE COMPLETE… While much of the impact from Subtropical Storm Alberto will happen later on Sunday into Monday, I can’t rule out a few rain bands that could produce tornadoes overnight into Sunday morning. Starting now, you have to have a way to get the urgent weather warnings! Heavy rain and flash flooding continue to be my number one concern as 6-12” of rain will be likely across south Alabama and northwest Florida with isolated higher amounts.
SATURDAY EVENING UPDATE… Again, please have a way to get the urgent warnings overnight and over the next few days. There is a low-end risk of tornado warnings as early as Sunday morning, especially across our northwest Florida communities. Rain/heavy rain from Alberto will move in on Sunday morning, laying the foundation for what could be a major flash flooding event.
TORNADO WARNING COVERAGE… Per our coverage policy (redzoneweather.com/coverage) we will be LIVE across our platforms whenever there is a tornado warning in place for any part of our 12 county primary coverage area should warnings become necessary. Isolated tornadoes are possible as early as Sunday morning!
IMPORTANT NOTE ABOUT COVERAGE… I know of several people in the broadcasting community across the U.S. that have recently had issues with live streaming to Facebook. This is beyond their control and has something to do with the privacy/security concerns that have recently come to light about Facebook. IF, by chance, we have issues streaming to Facebook Live for whatever reason, we will be LIVE in the RedZone Weather app (in the Live tab) and via our YouTube channel and in the audio-only Mixlr feed in the app. Not expecting issues, but just to be clear on the front end, that’s the plan!
Here is a detailed summary of what you can expect in your specific county. Note the rain totals and tornado potential are largely dependent on the specific track of Alberto. Higher rain totals and a higher tornado potential will exit in the right-front quadrant of the system, aka the east side of the storm in this case.
MOBILE & BALDWIN COUNTIES… Communities in Mobile and Baldwin counties have a HIGH risk in our local area of experiencing flash flooding and river & creek flooding from Sunday through Wednesday. NWS Mobile calls this an *extreme risk* of flash flooding. 7-14″ of rain is expected. Periods of heavy rain are likely beginning overnight and into Sunday morning. There is a chance that once the rain starts, it won’t stop for quite some time. The tornado threat will be highest in these areas likely Sunday evening through Tuesday morning. High winds are most likely as the core of Alberto moves by these communities Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. Storm surge is likely along the Alabama coast at Dauphin Island, Fort Morgan, Gulf Shores, and Orange Beach.
ESCAMBIA (FL), SANTA ROSA, OKALOOSA, WALTON COUNTIES… There is a HIGH risk of flash flooding and river & creek flooding from Sunday through Wednesday across these northwest Florida counties. NWS Mobile calls this an *extreme risk* of flash flooding as 6-12″ of rain is expected. Heavy rain is possible as early as this (Saturday) evening, but will most likely begin overnight and into Sunday morning. There is a chance that once the rain starts, it won’t stop for quite some time. The tornado threat will be highest in these areas likely Sunday evening through Tuesday morning. High winds are most likely as the core of Alberto moves by these areas Monday midday through Tuesday morning. Storm surge is likely along the northwest Florida coast at Perdido Key, Pensacola Beach, Navarre Beach, Fort Walton Beach, and Destin. The tornado threat will be highest in these areas likely Sunday afternoon/evening through Tuesday morning.
ESCAMBIA COUNTY, ALABAMA… The flash flooding risk in Escambia County, Alabama is HIGH as 5-10″ of rain will be possible across much of the county. Heavy rain is possible as early as this (Saturday) evening, but will most likely begin overnight and into Sunday morning. Unlike coastal areas, there will more likely be some breaks in the mostly continuous rain. The river & creek flooding threat is largely dependent on what happens near and north of our county, in terms of rainfall rates. One bit of good news is that rain amounts will be greater, most likely, to our south and not to our north. There is a chance, however, that local creeks and rivers could flood Monday through Wednesday. The tornado threat will be highest in Escambia County, AL Sunday evening through Tuesday morning. Breezy conditions are likely Monday through Wednesday as the core of Alberto passes by, but widespread high winds are not expected at this time.
MONROE, CLARKE, WASHINGTON, CHOCTAW COUNTIES… There is an extreme risk of flash flooding across inland counties of southwest Alabama as Alberto approaches and moves by. Heavy rain will likely move in on Sunday during the daytime hours. Unlike coastal areas, there will more likely be some breaks in the mostly continuous rain. The river & creek flooding threat is largely dependent on what happens near and north of these communities in west Alabama, in terms of rainfall rates. The tornado threat will be highest in these west Alabama counties late Sunday evening through Tuesday afternoon. Breezy conditions are likely Monday through Wednesday as the core of Alberto passes by, but widespread high winds are not expected at this time in these inland areas.
CONECUH, COVINGTON, BUTLER COUNTIES… There is a significant risk of flash flooding across inland counties of south central Alabama as Alberto approaches and moves by. Heavy rain will likely move in on Sunday during the daytime hours. Unlike coastal areas, there will more likely be some breaks in the mostly continuous rain. The river & creek flooding threat is largely dependent on what happens near and north of these communities in south central Alabama, in terms of rainfall rates. The tornado threat will be highest in these west Alabama counties Sunday evening through Tuesday afternoon. Breezy conditions are likely Monday through Wednesday as the core of Alberto passes by, but widespread high winds are not expected at this time in these inland areas.
TIMING: HEAVY RAIN… See the video for more specifics about this and the uncertainty involved. The heavier, more consistent rain will approach the Alabama and northwest Florida likely on Sunday morning. Heavy rain will spread northward into inland areas during the daytime hours of Sunday. This will set the stage for what will likely be a MAJOR flash flooding event. Big chance Monday and much of the day on Tuesday will be “all day washout” type days across much of south Alabama and northwest Florida. Monday, especially, looks wet. We’re calling it a 100% chance of rain for Memorial Day. Rain will finally start to clear out late on Wednesday. Again, a LONG FORM, HIGH IMPACT heavy rain event!
TIMING: FLASH FLOODING… The timing for flash flooding and flooding will be largely dependent on heavy rain and when it arrives across the area. For now, the best estimate shows that flash flooding will become a problem Sunday evening. Keep in mind… Rain likely won’t stop once it starts, especially in coastal areas. Flash flooding will be likely Monday through Wednesday across the area. The greatest risk of flash flooding will happen across Mobile, Baldwin, Escambia (AL), Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, and Escambia (FL) counties.
TIMING: RIVER & CREEK FLOODING… Again, this is largely dependent on the heavy rain and flash flooding, which translates into rapid water rises along local creeks and rivers. For now, we’re calling for rapidly rising water levels on rivers and creeks Monday into Tuesday. If your home or your business is located in a flood zone, even in INLAND areas, please closely monitor my posts over the next few days and be ready to protect people and property from rapidly rising water.
NEW: FLASH FLOOD WATCH… Due to the potential for 6-12+” of rain across much of the area, a flash flood watch has been issued valid now through Tuesday evening for Mobile, Baldwin, Escambia (AL), Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, and Escambia (FL) counties. A new Flash Flood Watch has been issued for Choctaw, Clarke, Washington, Wilcox, Monroe, Butler, Conecuh, and Covington counties in south Alabama. Everyone is now under a flash flood watch in south Alabama and northwest Florida!
TROPICAL STORM WARNING… Coastal sections of Mobile and Baldwin counties in south Alabama and Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, and Walton counties in northwest Florida are under a Tropical Storm WARNING. This means that sustained winds in excess of 40mph will be possible in these areas over the next 48 hours. Dauphin Island, Fort Morgan, Orange Beach, Gulf Shores, Perdido Key, Pensacola Beach, Navarre Beach, Fort Walton Beach, and Destin are all included. The tropical storm warning extends all the way over to Apalachicola and areas near Tallahassee.
TIMING: HIGH WIND THREAT… The core of Alberto (likely to be a 50-60mph tropical storm at landfall) will reach south Alabama and northwest Florida likely during the daytime hours of Monday. Since forward speed of the storm will be slowing, there will be a prolonged period of gusty winds (50-60mph winds possible) at local beaches that could last until Tuesday morning. So again, from early Monday to Tuesday afternoon will be the core wind threat for coastal areas. Inland areas will have breezy conditions, but likely not much in the way of wind impacts.
STORM SURGE WATCH… The National Hurricane Center has issued a storm surge watch for all of our local beach communities. Dauphin Island, Fort Morgan, Orange Beach, Gulf Shores, Perdido Key, Pensacola Beach, Navarre Beach, Fort Walton Beach, and Destin are all included. A Storm Surge Watch means potentially life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, is possible within 72 hours. This could be changed to a Storm Surge Warning on Sunday.
APP… If you haven’t set up your customized alert experience yet in the RedZone Weather app, do it NOW before the storm impacts arrive! Tap the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) here in the RedZone Weather app and then tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to choose which alerts you’d like to receive from us. A description for what you can expect for a Medium-Level Alert and Low-Level Alert can be found in the Alerts tab. Highly detailed info!
I will post updates on Facebook as needed on Sunday with MANY MORE updates in the RedZone Weather app. I would encourage you to get in the habit, during these severe weather events, of checking your RZW app just as much as our Facebook Page as we have plenty more posts daily in the RZW app.
Have a great evening! See you in the morning.