SCATTERED STORMS LIKELY THIS WEEK; TROPICS ACTIVE… Pop-up thunderstorms are developing on this Sunday with more storms expected to fire in each of the next several afternoons. The Atlantic basin has once again ramped up to near “full throttle” level with four active systems. The good news is only one of these storms has any remote potential of reaching the Gulf of Mexico. Unfortunately, the major “cool down” in the temperature department that was expected for the upcoming weekend looks increasingly unlikely based on the latest model guidance. LONG post today as we look at details. Let’s talk…

POP-UP STORMS AROUND TODAY… We’ve already observed several showers and thunderstorms today across the southern half of Baldwin County near Orange Beach, Gulf Shores, Foley, Robertsdale, Silverhill, Elberta, and Elsanor. While Baldwin County has been the hotspot so far, I expect more thunderstorms to pop up this afternoon as afternoon heat content builds in the atmosphere. Be ready for scattered downpours of heavy rain over the next few hours across the entirety of south Alabama and northwest Florida. We won’t all have rain, but most communities will before the end of the day. High temperatures will peak around 89° in most spots.

SUMMER PATTERN TO CONTINUE… Fall started on Saturday, at least on the calendar anyway. The upcoming few days will certainly feel more like summer than fall as high temperatures will consistently be in the upper-80s with morning lows around 72°. Rain chances look to be increased compared to the last two weeks, with a 60-80% chance of rain now through Thursday.

TROPICS VERY ACTIVE AGAIN… The first half of September was busy across much of the Atlantic basin. We went through several days with no activity, and on this Sunday we’re ramping up activity yet again. The good news in the mix of all this is that no Gulf Coast impacts are expected over the next 5-8 days due to anything in the tropics. That’s the way we hope to keep it! Below are the specifics on the active storms…

TROPICAL STORM KIRK… Kirk will be “the one to watch,” as it relates to our local area anyway, over the next week or so. The center of Tropical Storm Kirk is located about 545 miles southwest of the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands near the African coast. Kirk will move westward in the days ahead toward the Lesser Antilles, although it should be heavily emphasized that NO land impacts are expected from Kirk over the next 4 days. The system looks impressive on visible satellite imagery, but we note a big plume of Saharan dust just to the north of Kirk that is likely (and will likely continue to) inhibit rapid strengthening. The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) calls for Kirk to peak in intensity on Tuesday as a 60mph tropical storm before weakening to a 40mph tropical storm by Friday as the system approaches the Antilles. No need to worry or stress about this system as it’s about two weeks out from any potential U.S. impacts (and there is absolutely no confidence that the system will ever approach the U.S.). We’ll keep watching and bring you the latest.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION #11 NO MORE… The best kind of tropical system is one that is super weak and dissipating. NHC has issued the last advisory on Tropical Depression 11, located just to the east of the Lesser Antilles. The system is almost nonexistent as shower/storm action has almost completely faded. Regeneration of TD11 is not expected as the environment ahead of the remnant area of low pressure is very hostile with plenty of atmospheric shear. Great news!

LESLIE IN MIDDLE OF ATLANTIC… The first advisory for Subtropical Storm Leslie was issued about 2 hours ago. The system is over 1,200 miles east of Bermuda. Land impacts are not expected, although Leslie may meander over the open waters of the Atlantic for several days before dissipation happens.

INVEST 98L SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA… An area of low pressure southwest of Bermuda is producing quite a bit of cloudiness and showers over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. This system is forecast to move near the North Carolina coast this week. NHC gives it a 30% chance of developing into a tropical storm as it approaches the U.S. by Wednesday. Most models show the center of this system staying offshore, which is good considering North Carolina just endured catastrophic flooding due to Hurricane Florence.

Let the big takeaway from all of this tropical news be: Gulf Coast impacts are not expected in the next 5-8 days. We’ll keep monitoring the tropics and bring you the latest here on Facebook in the morning videos this week and in the RedZone Weather app (redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download).

Let me know if you have any weather-related questions or concerns. Have a great Sunday evening!