7:57PM October 22, 2018

ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE THURSDAY… There is an increasing, but still low-end, chance that we could see a few isolated, brief tornadoes on Thursday across coastal stretches of Alabama and northwest Florida. Thursday will be quite wet across the region as an area of low pressure moves near our coastline or just to the south. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty as to where this surface low will track. The specific track of the area of low pressure will determine whether the tornado risk will materialize. Some models keep the center of the low offshore, which would bode MUCH better for our area and eliminate the severe weather risk. Other models show the area of low pressure tracking farther inland, meaning areas south of the accompanying warm front would be in a zone where tornadoes would be possible. There is plenty we don’t know yet, but let’s talk about what we do know…

PLACEMENT OF SEVERE POTENTIAL… The low-end tornado risk will almost certainly be in coastal counties (Mobile, Baldwin, Escambia [FL], Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa). The low-end risk for flash flooding will be areawide, including inland areas. Heavy rain will be possible across our region on Thursday. Rain amounts will vary from 1 inch up to 3-4″ in isolated spots.

TIMELINE OF POTENTIAL IMPACTS… Rain and general thunderstorms are possible as early as 1AM Wednesday. The severe weather risk could kick off as early as 5AM and extend well into Wednesday evening. The 12 hour window for severe weather right now seems to be 8AM Wednesday to 8PM Wednesday. Rain and storms will move out late Thursday night into early Friday. Clearing skies are expected starting midday on Friday.

UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST… There will be changes and updates in the days ahead as this potential severe weather event sets up. Be sure to check back with me over the next few days on Facebook and in the RedZone Weather app for the very latest. We will keep you posted.

Have a nice Monday evening!

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