HEAVY RAIN LIKELY THIS EVENING; FEW STRONG STORMS… The Storm Prediction Center has included our coastal counties in a Level 1 (out of 5) marginal severe weather risk today. We also have a Flash Flood Watch in effect for several local counties. We’re about to have a messy, soggy Saturday in most spots across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Let’s talk details…
LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER RISK NEAR COAST… While the big concern today across our region will be heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding and ultimately river/creek flooding in spots across our region, we also will be watching areas of storms that develop near the immediate coast of Alabama and northwest Florida later today. There is some concern that we could have some weak supercell thunderstorms that move toward the coast this afternoon into the evening hours. Parts of Mobile, Baldwin, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties are included in the Level 1 (out of 5) marginal severe weather risk zone valid for today. This means that a few strong to severe storms will be possible in those areas. The concern is that some of the storms could briefly ramp up and produce damaging straight line winds or a brief tornado. Widespread severe weather is NOT expected, however, other than the potential for flash flooding.
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING… The main timeframe for the low-end tornado/damaging wind potential near the coast will happen from 2PM to 10PM. We note that the heavy rain/flash flooding potential will extend before and after that timeframe.
BIG RAIN AMOUNTS TODAY… Most spots across our region will likely pick up 2 to 4 inches of rainfall over the next 24-36 hours. There very well could be higher rainfall amounts in isolated spots with 5-6″ of rain being possible. I expect MOST areas to be in the 2-3″ rainfall total category.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH… Because of the high rain amounts, the National Weather Service has placed Mobile, Baldwin, Escambia (AL), Covington, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties under a Flash Flood Watch. Flash flooding will quickly become a concern as this rain is falling on saturated soil from the previous rain event last weekend.
LINGERING RAIN ON SUNDAY… While much of the heavy rain should exit to the east of our local area by Sunday morning, there will likely be a few lingering showers behind the area of low pressure. Showers will gradually fade on Sunday. Clouds will linger into Monday morning before clearing skies happen on Monday evening. High temperatures on Sunday and on Monday will struggle to hit 50°.
The photo attached (above) is of the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model valid at 3PM, showing the potential for heavy rain and thunderstorms in place across the local area.
PARADE FUN… Thank you so much to our entire RedZone Weather Team who came together to build a fantastic 1st place winning Brewton Christmas Parade float. Special shout out to Bruce Thompson, aka Buddy the Elf, on not only being a special guest in the parade, but also being the creative genius behind our float design. If you missed the photos from the parade, be sure to check them out!
APP… I’ll have plenty of updates today in the RedZone Weather app (redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download). Be sure to visit the Alerts tab in the app and set up the customizable alerts you would like to receive straight from me.