SEVERE WEATHER RISK ON SUNDAY… Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing isolated tornadoes and damaging winds are possible on Sunday as a cold front gets set to move through south Alabama and northwest Florida. I’ll have a highly detailed, long form discussion on Saturday morning, but here are a few short Friday evening notes…
1) Isolated tornadoes and damaging straight line winds will be the main concerns Sunday afternoon and evening. Small hail will also be possible. Flash flooding issues are likely to be limited and not widespread.
2) 1PM to 8PM is the seven hour window in which severe storms are MOST likely across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Storms (and the accompanying severe weather risk) will be likely much earlier in the day across central Alabama and in areas to our north.
3) For now, the Storm Prediction Center has our entire local area included in their Level 2 (out of 5) slight risk zone. This means that scattered severe storms are possible. Based on the latest model guidance, I think this is a great call on their part. There will be plenty of instability for storms to work with and wind shear values around 50-60 knots several thousand feet in the atmosphere. These are two critical “severe weather ingredients.”
4) Intermittent rain will be possible both Saturday and on Sunday morning. Rain will become more widespread Sunday afternoon and evening as our severe weather ramps up. Most Mardi Gras parades locally this weekend will be dry on Saturday, but you’ll need the rain gear handy for sure in case you’re under one of the spotty showers. The parades on Sunday have a much greater risk of heavy rain.
Once you have the RedZone Weather app downloaded to your phone or tablet, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner of app) and turn ON the specific alerts you’d like to receive from me.
The attached video loop (above) is the 3km North American Model projected radar view on Sunday afternoon and evening showing the storms moving across our area.
My next discussion and update about the developing severe weather setup for Sunday will be posted by 7:15AM on Saturday morning. Be sure to check back with me tomorrow for the latest info.