7:15AM March 2, 2019

LEVEL 2 RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY… The Storm Prediction Center continues to include *all* of south Alabama and northwest Florida in their Level 2 (out of 5) slight risk zone valid for Sunday, meaning scattered instances of severe weather will be possible, including a few tornadoes. The risk will mainly come from a southeastward-advancing line of strong to severe thunderstorms that move through our area in the afternoon and evening hours of Sunday. Before we get there, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected on this Saturday. Most spots will have peak temperatures in the upper-70s today and tomorrow. That’s your summary, here are all the details…

SHOWERS & STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY BUT NO SEVERE RISK… Today (Saturday) will feature scattered rain showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two across the region. No severe weather issues are expected today. There is a chance of rain this evening for the local Mardi Gras parades in Pensacola, Baldwin County, and Mobile, but it’s hard to pinpoint where rain will be falling later this evening. The big headline with this is: Please have the rain gear handy as you may need it if you’re headed out to a Mardi Gras event. Temperatures will be mild/warmish all day with high temperatures in the upper-70s.

LEVEL 2 RISK PLACEMENT… The Storm Prediction Center has included much of Alabama, all of northwest Florida, parts of Georgia, Mississippi, and Louisiana in their Level 2 standard slight risk zone vaid for Sunday. Our entire local primary coverage area is included in this Level 2 risk zone. This means that if you’re in or near the following places, you’re involved in the Level 2 risk: Mobile, Pensacola, Destin, Thomasville, Grove Hill, Jackson, Leroy, Chatom, Citronelle, Daphne, Fairhope, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Century, Molino, Atmore, Poarch, Brewton, East Brewton, Flomaton, Evergreen, Castleberry, Monroeville, Uriah, Beatrice, Greenville, Georgiana, McKenzie, Andalusia, Opp, Florala, Milton, Jay, Munson, Baker, and Crestview. In addition, many other places across the Deep South are included in the Level 2 risk area: Birmingham, Montgomery, Auburn, Tuscaloosa, Selma, Camden, Demopolis, Dothan, Enterprise, Geneva, Abbeville, Eufaula, Prattville, Alexander City, Clanton, Panama City (FL), Albany (GA), Jackson (MS), and New Orleans (LA).

SUNDAY MORNING: STORMS TO THE NORTH… The line of strong to severe thunderstorms will set up to our north on Sunday morning across central Alabama and Mississippi. This means that the severe weather risk is likely to end much earlier across those locations. Our severe weather issues on Sunday will come later in the day…

SEVERE WEATHER TIMING… For south Alabama and northwest Florida, the severe weather issues are most likely to happen between 1PM and 9PM. That’s the eight hour window in which severe weather is MOST likely to happen. Could storms happen slightly before or after that time window? Yes. You’ll need to have a way to receive urgent weather warnings all day.

STORM MODES & HAZARDS… This will mostly be a linear storm threat, meaning we’ll have a squall line of storms (quasi-linear convective system/QLCS if you want to get technical) moving through. Still too early to know whether discrete supercells will be an issue… Isolated tornadoes and damaging straight line winds will be the main concerns with the advancing line of storms. Small hail will also be possible. Flash flooding issues are likely to be limited and not widespread.

WHY THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK… Cold air is pushing southward behind a strong cold front that will move by our area on Sunday evening. Out ahead of the cold air, warm, Gulf moisture will stream in from the south. This moisture, combined with a streak of strong winds 5,000-15,000 feet in the atmosphere, and atmospheric instability mean that severe weather parameters will be in place across our region Sunday P.M.

MUCH COOLER NEXT WEEK… We’re set to get several days of nice, sunny weather during the upcoming week starting on Monday. High temperatures Monday will be in the upper-50s after the passage of the cold front. Overnight lows by Wednesday morning could dip below 32° in spots. High pressure will take control of our weather pattern, meaning cool, dry days Monday through Wednesday.

APP ALERTS… redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download of our RedZone Weather app. Once you have the app downloaded to your phone or tablet, be sure to visit the Alerts tab and turn on the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a LOT of alerts, be sure to turn on Low-Level Alerts. Most folks should turn ON the Medium-Level Alerts since we don’t send very many of those as they’re reserved for important bits of weather news.

I’ll have updates throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. Let me know if you have specific questions. Have a great Saturday and happy Mardi Gras season!

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