LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER RISK INTRODUCED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT… The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Level 1 (out of 5) low-end, marginal severe weather risk that includes parts of southwest Alabama and northwest Florida valid for Thursday evening into the early morning hours of Friday. The main concern Thursday night will be any storms that can ramp up to strong levels that could briefly turn severe and produce damaging wind gusts or perhaps an isolated tornado. We note that this system does not feature the same upper-level support or show signs of strength that our last two severe weather episodes had. That, however, does not mean we won’t have an isolated, brief severe storm. It does mean that the probability of severe weather happening for any given location remains LOW. Let’s look at a few details…

LEVEL 2 RISK TO THE WEST… Much of southern Mississippi and eastern Louisiana are included in the Level 2 (out of 5) slight risk zone where the chances of severe weather are a bit higher during the afternoon and evening hours of Thursday. New Orleans, Slidell, Venice, Bay St. Louis, and McComb are the areas involved in the Level 2 risk.

LEVEL 1 RISK: WHO IS INVOLVED… Parts of Escambia (AL), Conecuh, Monroe, Clarke, Washington, Mobile, Baldwin, Choctaw, Marengo, Sumter, Escambia (AL), and Santa Rosa counties are included in the low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) risk zones. These are the areas officially outlined by the Storm Prediction Center, however based on the latest model guidance, I would suggest that any severe weather risk will likely happen in coastal counties where the brief tongue of atmospheric instability will be greatest on Thursday evening into Friday morning.

POTENTIAL HAZARDS… The overall severe weather risk remains low, but if we happen to have any storms that can ramp up to severe levels the main concerns would primarily be gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado or two. The overall tornado risk remains LOW, however.

TIMING OF THE STORMS ON THURSDAY NIGHT… 6PM Thursday to 5AM Friday is the window when severe weather could happen. The core risk will be 11PM to 3AM, based on the latest guidance. This could change over the next day or so as the event gets closer. Be sure to check back with me Wednesday and during the day on Thursday for the very latest.

RAIN LIKELY, REGARDLESS OF STORMS… Rain, thunder, and lightning will likely happen Thursday evening into Friday regardless of if any severe storms happen. Most of us will pick up between 1-1.5” of rain in total with this event. Rain could linger into the afternoon hours of Friday. Saturday kicks off a streak of dry, sunny, warm days.

APP… I’ll have plenty of updates in the RedZone Weather app today and tomorrow about the upcoming low-end severe weather risk late Thursday into Friday. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to go into the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and toggle ON the customized alerts you’d like to receive straight from me.

Have a nice Tuesday evening!

Tap below to support this RZW sponsor!