ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON; FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY… After a good, soaking rain across the region in many spots on Tuesday, today will feature more in the way of scattered thunderstorms. Not everyone will have rain before the end of the day, but you know the drill with these summertime pop-up storms: If you’re involved with one of the storms, very heavy downpours of rain are likely. Widespread severe weather remains unlikely for today, although we note that a few stronger storms may happen on Thursday. Gusty winds and large hail will be the main concerns. Temperatures are set to increase into the upper-90s this weekend. Let’s look at a few forecast details…
STORMS WILL BE MORE WIDELY SPACED TODAY… Just about everyone had rain at some point during the day on Tuesday. A good, soaking stratiform rain lasted quite awhile after the initial storms across much of Conecuh, Covington, Escambia (AL), Santa Rosa, and Escambia (FL) counties. Today will be similar, but I expect storms to be more widely spaced in nature. Storms that are able to bubble up will be most likely to happen between 11AM and 7PM. Strong storms are not expected today. High temperatures on this Wednesday will peak in the low- to mid-90s across the region.
PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT… No major weather issues are expected later this evening into the overnight hours. Partly cloudy skies are expected with very little in the way of showers and storms. Overnight lows will be around 73-75° for most areas.
LEVEL 1 (OUT OF 5) SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR THURSDAY… The Storm Prediction Center has outlined parts of our inland counties in their Level 1 (out of 5) marginal severe weather risk valid for Thursday. This means that a few stronger storms will be possible. This is a low-end risk, thus widespread severe weather remains highly unlikely. The main concern in the stronger storms on Thursday will be the potential for damaging straight line winds, large hail, and lots of cloud-to-ground lightning. The overall risk for a tornado remains very, very low if not zero in most spots. It’s not impossible, but it’s hard to get a tornado in the summertime around here (outside of tropical/hurricane situations) as the wind fields generally just are not supportive of tornadic development. It can (and does) happen but it’s not common at all.
TIMING FOR STORMS ON THURSDAY… The window for the low-end risk of severe weather will be from 10AM to 10PM with the core risk being from 1PM to 7PM. There is a good chance that some spots across our region will actually be dry all day on Thursday. The issue is any storms that can develop could quickly turn stronger, partially because of all the atmospheric instability that will be in place across our region.
ISOLATED STORMS FRIDAY… We transition to more of a “normal pop-up storm pattern” on Friday. Scattered storms will bubble up in the heat of the day with very few being problematic or severe. High temperatures on Friday will again be in the low- to mid-90s.
WARMER & DRIER WEEKEND UPCOMING… Rain chances decrease and afternoon temperatures are set to increase as we head into Saturday and Sunday. High temperatures will rise into the upper-90s with mostly sunny skies each day.
TROPICS REMAIN QUIET… No tropical storm formation is expected over the next 5-7 days in the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, or Atlantic Ocean per the latest guidance from the National Hurricane Center.
See all the details in your Wednesday #rzw forecast video… Have a nice day!