6:56AM July 31, 2019

MORE P.M. STORMS THIS WEEKEND; TROPICS HEATING UP… Heat, humidity, and afternoon/evening scattered thunderstorms will continue to be the headlines of our local weather pattern. Climatology suggests the peak of hurricane season typically happens from August to October, with a maximum generally in September. Right on target, the Atlantic basin is coming alive with the potential for a tropical storm forming east of the Lesser Antilles in the Atlantic Ocean over the next few days. Let’s talk details…

INCREASING AMOUNT OF P.M. STORMS OVER NEXT FEW DAYS… Most spots across the local area have been dry this week. The good news is showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous as we go into the latter half of the week and into this weekend. Parts of Covington, Coffee, Geneva, and Walton counties are included in the “severe drought” category, per the latest U.S. Drought Monitor report. Our area needs a good, soaking rain. Pop-up storms will help in this process. Most of the storms today and over the next few days will happen in the afternoon and evening hours.

CONSISTENT SUMMER TEMPERATURES… High temperatures will consistently be in the mid-90s with morning lows in the low-70s over the next few days. Some spots may hit the upper-90s on Thursday into Friday. It’s typical in midsummer that we don’t have much change in the temperature department around here, and that certainly will be true over the next 7-10 days.

INVEST 95L BASICALLY OFF THE BOARD… The tropical wave (branded as INVEST 95L) currently producing heavy rain across parts of Haiti and the Dominican Republic remains weak and unorganized. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) says the system has only a 10% chance of developing into a tropical storm over the next few days as it moves toward The Bahamas. No issues are expected in our local area because of this system.

TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF LESSER ANTILLES… There is an increasing chance (30-40%) that a tropical wave currently situated hundreds of miles east of the Lesser Antilles in the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean will develop into a tropical storm in 3-5 days as it continues moving west. It is impossible to know where the system will end up at this point, but we note the ECMWF/Euro model brings the system northward near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola in about a week as a moderate tropical storm. This is a system to monitor carefully, but certainly no cause for concern or worry for the Gulf Coast as of now. I’ll keep you posted with the latest information.

NO ACTION IN THE GULF, FOR NOW… No tropical issues are expected in the Gulf of Mexico today or in the next 5 days. We will continue to monitor the tropical wave in the Atlantic. We note that water temperatures in the Gulf are in the mid- to upper-80s. That’s pretty normal for this time of year. Storms that do develop or enter the Gulf of Mexico will have plenty of “high octane fuel” to work with.

APP ALERTS… Be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app (redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download) and set up your customized alerts. Once you have the RZW app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner), then tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the specific alerts you would like to receive. We have a solution for everyone – folks that want a lot of information and folks that may only want the important, rare alerts. Check out details in the Alerts tab today!

See all the details in your Wednesday #rzw forecast video… Enjoy your day!

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8:12PM July 30, 2019

TROPICS HEATING UP; 40% CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT THIS WEEKEND… The National Hurricane Center (NHC) says there is an increasing chance that a tropical storm will form east of the Lesser Antilles in the tropical waters of the Atlantic Ocean this weekend. NHC indicates there is now a 40% chance of a tropical storm forming between Friday and Monday just east of the Leeward Islands southeast of Puerto Rico. This is a totally separate, distinct system than the tropical wave that will approach the Atlantic coast of Florida over the next few days. It is important to note that there is no IMMINENT tropical threat in the Gulf of Mexico and no U.S. impacts are currently expected. Some scenarios could potentially lead to impacts in a week or so, but it is too early to speculate about that. Details will come into focus over the next week. Plenty to discuss in the tropics this evening. Let’s talk details…

40% CHANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPING… In addition to the 40% chance of development that the National Hurricane Center indicates for the tropical wave west of Africa, major global weather models show this system probably developing into a tropical storm and moving near or just north of Puerto Rico. It is far too early to speculate where this system will end up. Interests in The Bahamas and Florida should closely monitor the progress of this developing system.

INVEST 95L PROBABLY WON’T DEVELOP… Now, let’s talk about the good news. The tropical wave we’ve been tracking that has been producing heavy rain over Puerto Rico, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic remains weak and disorganized. This tropical wave was branded as INVEST 95L because it had a formidable chance at becoming a tropical storm east of the Florida Peninsula over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean later this week into this weekend. NHC says there is a 0-10% chance of development at this point, meaning there is a very high likelihood that the system WON’T develop into a tropical storm. This is good news for The Bahamas and for the Florida Peninsula.

NO MAJOR MODELS SHOW 95L DEVELOPING… One of the main reasons the development probabilities for INVEST 95L are so low is because upper-level winds remain unfavorable for a tropical storm. We note that all of the major global models, including the American-based GFS, and the European-based ECMWF models, show no development with this system. It’s a different story for the tropical wave just to the west of Africa, however.

APP ALERTS… If you haven’t already downloaded the free RedZone Weather app, redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the app. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me. I’ll keep you updated about the tropics over the next few days.

I’ll have your next full forecast video on Wednesday posted by 7:15AM. See you then!

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7:01PM July 30, 2019

STORMS ACROSS INTERIOR OF SOUTH ALABAMA… Heavy rain continues to fall in isolated spots across the inland counties of southwest Alabama. As of 7:01PM, heavy rain is happening near Chapel Hill west of Millry, near Vocation and Range, and near McKenzie, Oaky Streak, Chapman, Bolling, and Melrose.

These storms will fade over the next 2-3 hours as we continue to lose daytime heating. Another round of showers and storms will develop on Wednesday in the afternoon and evening hours.

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3:42PM July 30, 2019

STORM COVERAGE RAMPING UP… The coverage of showers and thunderstorms across south Alabama and northwest Florida seems to have ramped up quite a bit since our last update about 20 minutes ago.

Heavy rain has popped up near Dixonville, Wallace, and Harold just in the last 10 minutes or so.

More storms will pop up over the next few hours before we lose daytime heating.

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