8:36PM July 7, 2019

60% CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM IN GULF LATER THIS WEEK… While there is still uncertainty in terms of specifics, chances are increasing that a tropical storm will form in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico later this week and move to the west. Local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida may be possible from Friday, July 12 through Sunday, July 14, depending on the intensity of this potential tropical system. Model consistency continues to gradually increase, thus the National Hurricane Center now says there is a 60% chance that a tropical depression or tropical storm will form later this week.

POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS… Everyone wants to know exactly what will happen in a specific location, but nobody (and I truly mean nobody) can be that specific just yet. It is best to discuss potential impacts in terms of a range at this point. On one hand, if no formal tropical development happens, there will likely be higher rain chances on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday (bare minimum) as the developing area of low pressure moves by and interacts with our daily seabreeze storms. On the other hand, if the system ramps up to a formidable tropical storm, depending on landfall location and other factors, we may need to ramp up the tornado risk and the risk of gusty winds at local beaches. Flash flooding may become a concern, regardless of formal development, in coastal counties later this week and into the weekend.

POTENTIAL LANDFALL LOCATION IF DEVELOPMENT HAPPENS… Everyone along the Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and northwest Florida coast should closely monitor the updates on this developing situation over the next several days. I will have multiple long-form updates every, single day in the RedZone Weather app until this threat passes.

NO TROPICAL STORM ISSUES THROUGH THURSDAY… There will be scattered showers and thunderstorms around each day over the next 3-4 days, but these are the typical seabreeze-induced storms that are not associated with this potential tropical development. Rain chances will likely increase later this week locally, regardless of if formal development happens. High temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will again be in the upper-90s with heat index values in excess of 100° in many spots.

APP ALERTS… redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the free RedZone Weather app. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab once you have the app downloaded and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you want to receive straight from me.

My next detailed video update and discussion will be posted by 7:15AM on Monday morning. See you then!

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