TROPICAL STORM IN NORTHERN GULF POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK… There is a 60% chance that a tropical depression or tropical storm will form in the northern Gulf of Mexico later this week. The chance of impacts from this system across south Alabama and northwest Florida also continues to slightly increase. More details about the potential for a tropical storm are below. Before we get to the end of the week, we have several hot, humid days with scattered showers and thunderstorms being likely each afternoon and evening. Let’s look at details…
POP-UP THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING… Similar to the last few days (and in the days ahead!), we will have a round of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening hours. Storms will likely produce heavy rain, gusty winds, and dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning. Widespread severe weather is not expected today. I should note that any thunderstorms today through Thursday have nothing to do with the tropical storm situation… The storms today are driven primarily by the seabreeze that happens each day.
QUITE HOT TODAY & ON TUESDAY… The thermometer will likely show 95-97 degrees this afternoon for a high temperature, but when you factor in the humidity/dewpoint, you get excessively high heat index values. Some spots may again have a heat index in excess of 105 this afternoon. That will be the case today and on Tuesday.
60% CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM IN GULF LATER THIS WEEK… While there is still uncertainty in terms of specifics, chances are increasing that a tropical storm will form in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico later this week and move to the west. Local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida may be possible from Friday, July 12 through Sunday, July 14, depending on the intensity of this potential tropical system. Model consistency continues to gradually increase, thus the National Hurricane Center now says there is a 60% chance that a tropical depression or tropical storm will form later this week.
POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS… Everyone wants to know exactly what will happen in a specific location, but nobody (and I truly mean nobody) can be that specific just yet. It is best to discuss potential impacts in terms of a range at this point. On one hand, if no formal tropical development happens, there will likely be higher rain chances on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday (bare minimum) as the developing area of low pressure moves by and interacts with our daily seabreeze storms. On the other hand, if the system ramps up to a formidable tropical storm, depending on landfall location and other factors, we may need to ramp up the tornado risk and the risk of gusty winds at local beaches. Flash flooding may become a concern, regardless of formal development, in coastal counties later this week and into the weekend.
POTENTIAL LANDFALL LOCATION IF DEVELOPMENT HAPPENS… Everyone along the Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and northwest Florida coast should closely monitor the updates on this developing situation over the next several days. I will have multiple long-form updates every, single day in the RedZone Weather app until this threat passes.
APP ALERTS… redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the free RedZone Weather app. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab once you have the app downloaded and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you want to receive straight from me.
See all the graphics and details in your Monday #rzw forecast video… Enjoy the day! Let me know if you have any questions.
