90% CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IN NEXT 2 DAYS… The developing area of low pressure over Apalachee Bay will very likely develop into a tropical storm over the next day or two. The National Hurricane Center indicates that tropical storm watches may be required for parts of the northern Gulf Coast over the next 48 hours. We note that the chance of local impacts has increased slightly. The Storm Prediction Center now includes our immediate beach zones (in Okaloosa, Santa Rosa, Escambia (FL), Baldwin, and Mobile counties) in their Level 1 (out of 5) marginal risk due to a low-end tornado potential setting up for Thursday. We may need to bump up the risk of a few tornadoes for Friday as well, depending on the exact track of what will likely become Tropical Storm Barry. Let’s talk details…
RAIN & STORMS TONIGHT END SOON… At the time this video is being produced at 7:30PM, we still have a few pop-up thunderstorms in progress across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Heavy rain is happening near Monroeville, Beatrice, Brewton, Andalusia, Opp, Foley, Orange Beach, and Grand Bay. These storms will gradually fade away over the next few hours. Another round of showers and thunderstorms will pop up late Wednesday morning and bring heavy rain at times to parts of our region. Be ready for scattered downpours of heavy rain on Wednesday.
POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS DUE TO LIKELY TROPICAL STORM… Heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding, isolated tornadoes near the immediate beach zones, high waves and dangerous rip currents, and breezy conditions at the beaches are the expected impacts in our local area. This paragraph specifically applies to south Alabama and northwest Florida. If you’re reading this in Mississippi, Louisiana, or Texas, you should consult with your local National Weather Service for specifics there.
ISOLATED TORNADO RISK INCREASES LOCALLY… The Storm Prediction Center now includes areas south of Interstate 10 in our local area in their Level 1 (out of 5) marginal risk zone valid for Thursday into Friday where a few, brief, spin-up tornadoes may happen in the outer rain bands of what will likely be Tropical Storm Barry. This risk will likely carry over into the daytime hours of Friday as well. The risk of isolated tornadoes will likely decrease Saturday into Sunday as the tropical storm moves away.
VERY HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES OVER NEXT FEW DAYS… We’ve adjusted rain chances higher for Wednesday and Thursday as the influence of the area of low pressure grows across our area. The local National Weather Service notes that flash flooding may become possible by Friday into Saturday when rain amounts will really start stacking up. Areas near the immediate beaches may have 3 to 4 inches of rain through Monday, while inland areas will likely have 1-2” of rain. Flash flood watches may be needed this weekend.
LOUISIANA LANDFALL POSSIBLE… All folks in Louisiana (especially west of the greater New Orleans area) and east Texas should really start focusing on this system as impacts are likely in those areas later this week into the weekend, based on the latest guidance we have. Isolated tornadoes, gusty winds, and flash flooding will all be concerns. Let me stress again that IF the track of this system ends up being a bit farther to the east, we will have bigger problems farther to the east in our local area. The latest model guidance points to a weekend landfall in Louisiana, perhaps west of the New Orleans area.
BLUE ANGELS FORECAST… Like many of you, I am proud that the Blue Angels call Pensacola home! The big Pensacola Beach Blue Angels Air Show is later this week into this weekend. Here’s what you need to know in terms of the weather forecast: Wednesday for “Breakfast with the Blues” at 8AM should be fine. Scattered clouds are expected but most of the pop-up storms will happen later in the day on Wednesday. Thursday will be the practice show at 2PM. Scattered thunderstorms are expected and it’s too early to know when and where those will happen. Friday will also feature a practice run at 2PM at Pensacola Beach. There could be scattered to numerous thunderstorms around. The main Blue Angels show is scheduled to happen Saturday at 2PM. Unfortunately, rain chances are high. It’s not a certainty that there will be rain and storms around, but it is a likelihood at this point. Be sure to check back with me later this week for an update on the Blues!
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My next RedZone Weather forecast video will be posted by 7:15AM on Wednesday morning. I’ll have more updates tonight and throughout the day tomorrow in the RedZone Weather app. Have a nice evening!
