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8:14PM July 28, 2019
Monthly Archives: July 2019
4:44PM 7/28/2019 – RZW Exec
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA LATER THIS WEEK… The National Hurricane Center says there is a low-end (20%) chance that tropical storm formation may happen later this week into the upcoming weekend near The Bahamas and south Florida as a tropical wave approaches from the southeast. The system has been designated INVEST 95L. Early model guidance points to this system potentially developing and moving rapidly northeast into the open waters of the tropical Atlantic Ocean, although it is entirely too early to know with confidence whether that will, indeed, happen. Here are the headlines this evening…
IMPRESSIVE ‘LOOK’ ON SATELLITE IMAGERY… INVEST 95L is currently producing heavy rain and thunderstorms across much of the Lesser Antilles just southeast of Puerto Rico in the eastern Caribbean Sea. Much of the cloud cover depicted on the visible satellite imagery is upper-level clouds. I suspect that once this burst of convection fades, it will reveal the true nature of the system: Weak and fairly unorganized as of now. The system will move northwest in the days ahead, likely dropping excessive rainfall across Puerto Rico, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SEEM UNFAVORABLE… Based on the latest model data, it certainly seems like the environment ahead of INVEST 95L will be fairly hostile and not majorly supportive of tropical storm formation later this week. This is because of winds higher in the atmosphere, aka atmospheric wind shear, that will likely rip the system apart at least somewhat as it moves over The Bahamas.
IMPACTS UNLIKELY IN SOUTH ALABAMA OR NORTHWEST FLORIDA… There is no cause for panic, worry, or even giving this system much thought in our local area. There is very high chance, at this point, that direct local impacts in south Alabama or northwest Florida won’t ever happen because of this system. The ECMWF (Euro) model barely develops this system before lifting it rapidly northeast away from the United States. The legacy version of the Global Forecast System (GFS) does develop this system east of Florida before indicating a rapid move out into the open waters of the Atlantic.
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4:04PM July 28, 2019
Small, isolated showers & storms continue to happen in parts of Baldwin, Escambia (FL), and Santa Rosa counties. Heavy downpours of rain are happening near Robertsdale, Silverhill, Cantonment, Chumuckla, and Five Points. Most spots will remain dry through the evening hours. pic.twitter.com/ovkYrDPCME
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) July 28, 2019
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3:25PM July 28, 2019
Low-end chance that a tropical storm may form east of Florida this week… Probably will never be an issue for Alabama or northwest Florida as most models steer this system out into the Atlantic. Branded as #INVEST95L. pic.twitter.com/a1EagknZJ8
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) July 28, 2019
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1:30PM July 28, 2019
PARTLY CLOUDY TODAY; HOT WEEK AHEAD… Isolated thunderstorms are happening this afternoon across coastal areas of Santa Rosa and Okaloosa counties. Vast majority of us will remain dry and hot today and over the next 2-3 days. Rain chances are slated to progressively rise as we go into the latter half of the week. Before we get there, we’ve got a few hot, mostly dry days ahead. Let’s discuss your forecast details…
STORMS HAPPENING NOW… Several small, highly isolated showers and thunderstorms are happening this afternoon across parts of northwest Florida, specifically in southern Santa Rosa and Okaloosa counties. These showers are drifting slowly to the west. Rain happened about an hour ago near Navarre and is now pushing into area near Opal Beach and Gulf Breeze. A few more isolated small storms may pop up over the next several hours. High temperatures are peaking in the low-90s across the region.
MOSTLY DRY THIS EVENING… Any showers and storms that pop up over the next few hours will quickly fade as we go into this evening after 8PM. Temperatures will decline into the 80s by 7PM and likely fall into the upper-70s by 11PM. Mostly clear skies are expected overnight.
MAINLY SUNNY MONDAY AND TUESDAY… Monday and Tuesday will be quite similar to today, with very low (<10%) chances of rain in the afternoon and evening hours as high pressure remains in control of our weather pattern. High temperatures will be in the mid-90s each day with plenty of sunshine for all of the beachgoers at the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches.
RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY INCREASE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY… Pop-up thunderstorms will become more numerous across the region as we go into the latter half of the week. We’ll call it a 30-40% chance of rain for Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. Most of the storms will happen in the afternoon and evening hours. Severe weather is not expected.
TROPICS ARE QUIET, FOR NOW… Tropical storm formation is not expected across the tropical Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, or Caribbean Sea over the next 5 days. We note that some of the global models show a developing tropical storm well east of Florida, southwest of Bermuda in 5-7 days. All of the models show the system rapidly moving northeast away from the continental United States. We’ll keep you posted.
APP… If you haven’t already downloaded the RedZone Weather app, now is a great time to do that. redzoneweather.com/app is the link to the free download. Once you have the RZW app installed on your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to turn on the specific notifications you’d like to receive. All notifications are handcrafted by me. No automation and we promise not to bug you!
See all the graphics and details in your Sunday evening #rzw forecast video above… Enjoy the day!
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