6:52AM August 2, 2019

P.M. STORMS THIS WEEKEND; WATCHING THE TROPICS… Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening hours will be our local focus this weekend. Localized, small areas of heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds will be the main concerns. Severe weather is not expected. We’ll also be closely monitoring a tropical wave east of the Leeward Islands in the Atlantic Ocean that will likely become a tropical storm this weekend. Let’s look at your forecast details…

40-50% CHANCE OF STORMS THIS WEEKEND… You’ll definitely want to keep tabs on the radar this weekend as showers and thunderstorms will quickly bubble up in the heat of the day today, tomorrow, and on Sunday. High temperatures will consistently be in the low- to mid-90s with morning lows around 72°. It certainly won’t be an all day washout at any given spot, but there will be some rain at times. It’s hard to know exactly when and where showers and storms will form, but we know there will be storms around. Plenty of sunshine at the beaches this weekend!

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION LIKELY EAST OF ANTILLES… There is a 70% chance that we’ll have a tropical storm moving toward the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico by Sunday. The system is currently a tropical wave producing an area of disturbed weather about 1,100 miles east of the Lesser Antilles/Leeward Islands. The system has been branded as INVEST 96L. Upper-level winds will become favorable for the development of a tropical storm this weekend, but the good news is shear is forecast to increase ahead of the developing system early next week.

96L INTENSITY REMAINS UNCERTAIN… We don’t have a good grasp, at this point, of just how weak or how strong INVEST 96L will ultimately be. Some of the model guidance last evening suggested that the system could ramp up to a category 1 hurricane, but vast majority of the model guidance today has suggested that the system may not get much stronger than a minimal tropical storm. This type of uncertainty is to be expected in this stage before the system has formally developed. Models just can’t get get a good grip of the situation until a low-level circulation center has formed. Big takeaway here is that we don’t know just yet how weak or strong the system will be. This is something we’ll keep a close watch on.

NORTHERLY TURN OF 96L POSSIBLE… Long time viewers and readers know that I don’t put much, if any, stock in any weather model guidance 7 days out or greater. There is simply too much variability in the atmosphere that often causes extreme model error in that range. No doubt, models are getting better every year, but we still have a long way to go in weather forecasting beyond the 7 day range. I am encouraged, however, that most of the major global weather models have consistently suggested that IF INVEST 96L develops, it will potentially take a northerly turn well before reaching south Florida. This would obviously mean that there would be little to no Gulf of Mexico impacts IF that turns out to be correct. A lot can and will change over the next few days as we get more data in about this system.

WEAK INVEST 95L EAST OF FLORIDA… The totally distinct tropical wave currently bringing showers and thunderstorms to parts of south Florida and The Bahamas remains fairly unorganized. NHC continues to give the system a 0-10% chance of development into a tropical storm as it moves north, basically paralleling the east/Atlantic coast of Florida over the next 3 days. The system is expected to turn northeastward and move out to sea this weekend. I would be very surprised at this point if that system actually develops.

See all the details in your Friday #rzw forecast video… Have a great weekend!

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