FEW STORMS AROUND FOR H.S. FOOTBALL TONIGHT; P.M. STORMS THIS WEEKEND… Pop-up thunderstorms will develop again on this Friday, particularly in the afternoon and evening hours, across south Alabama and northwest Florida. While most of the storms will develop in the core of the daytime heating hours, there will likely be a few lingering storms around as high school football games kick off across the region later today. This weekend will be seasonal, with P.M. storms, plenty of heat, and plenty of humidity. Let’s look at details…
HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL FORECAST… Temperatures will be in the mid- to upper-80s at 7PM when most high school football games kick off across the local area. MOST of us will be dry at 7 o’clock, but there could be a few isolated storms around. We’ll call it a 20-30% chance of rain in the 6 to 9PM timeframe. The chance of storms will be slightly greater to the west of Interstate 65 this evening. That means that places like Thomasville, Jackson, Monroeville, Chatom, and Mobile have a slightly higher rain chance compared to communities farther to the east like Greenville, Andalusia, Brewton, Pensacola, Destin, Milton, and Crestview. You can keep tabs on the radar at redzoneweather.com/radar throughout the evening for the very latest.
WEEKEND AFTERNOON & EVENING STORMS… Showers and thunderstorms will pop up again on Saturday and on Sunday across our local area. Not everyone will get wet, but there could be isolated spots that pick up over 1” of rain in total. It is impossible to know exactly who will get the higher rain totals in advance as storms will pop up very quickly without any notice. Severe weather is not expected this weekend, but storms may produce frequent cloud-to-ground lightning.
FIRST LOOK AT NEXT WEEK… I don’t see anything in the weather model data that suggests a substantial departure from our current weather pattern. High temperatures will continue to be in the 90s with morning lows in the 70s with at least some chance of showers and thunderstorms each day. This is our “summer normal” around here.
INVEST 98L OVER THE BAHAMAS… There is a developing area of low pressure currently situated over The Bahamas just southeast of south Florida. This area of disturbed weather is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms near and to the east of the low pressure center. The system has been branded as INVEST 98L, which is a formal way to keep up with and classify specific tropical waves. The number is arbitrary (90-99 are used) and L stands for the AtLantic basin.
MODEL DISAGREEMENT LOOMS LARGE… We note that there is a substantial model disagreement that persists this morning with the ECMWF/Euro model developing the system into a tropical storm east of the South Carolina coast this weekend. The Euro ultimately moves the system out to sea into the middle of the north Atlantic Ocean, well away from land areas. The Global Forecast System (GFS), another highly reliable weather model, has consistently indicated a weaker solution, showing no formal tropical storm development. The GFS does, however, take the disorganized tropical wave out to sea as well. Big takeaway here is: Early indications point to a system moving AWAY from land, regardless of if development happens or not.
NO DIRECT LOCAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM 98L… Let me stress highly: No direct local impacts in Alabama or northwest Florida are expected because of this system, whether development happens or not. This will likely be a rainmaker for parts of eastern Florida, eastern Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, but other than that, there’s a good chance this system doesn’t cause major impacts for any land areas. Great news!
CHANTAL IS ON THE WAY OUT… We’ve been tracking a very weak, disorganized Tropical Depression Chantal over the last few days. The system is about halfway between North America and Europe, far away from any land areas. Further weakening is expected and Chantal will likely dissipate this weekend.
THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN IS QUIET… This is GREAT news for late August! The Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean remain quiet as of now. I do not see anything cropping up on the model data that suggests an imminent threat due to a tropical system outside of INVEST 98L. The climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season happens around September 11, so now is the time to really start monitoring things closely. August, September, and October are always the most active “hurricane months” each year in our basin. So far, we’ve been pretty quiet. That may (or may not) change as we go into September. Stay tuned!
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See all the details in your Friday #rzw forecast video… Have a great weekend!