POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE #9 FORMING; TRACK UNCERTAINTY; LOCAL IMPACTS TBD… Advisories were initiated earlier today on Potential Tropical Cyclone #9, aka the system that was branded as INVEST 95L yesterday. Model trends have suggested since early this morning that this system is now likely to move to the east of our local area this weekend into early next week. I caution that there is still ample track/intensity uncertainty with this system since a low-level circulation center has yet to develop, thus we still need to keep an eye on this developing system locally. Interestingly, steering currents for this developing tropical system will fall apart as we go into next week, meaning we may be dealing with another “Dorian-type” scenario where we have a meandering tropical storm either onshore in the Florida Peninsula/Georgia OR perhaps just off the East Coast in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. UNLIKE Dorian, however, this will be a much weaker system most likely. Rain and storms for Florida and Georgia and potentially the Carolinas, yes. Major hurricane, highly likely NOT. Under the revised model guidance, impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida would largely be mitigated. Let’s look at a few headlines this evening…

POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS DISCUSSION – THURSDAY EVENING… There’s good news and bad news to report this evening on this front. The good news is we probably won’t have a tropical storm or hurricane anywhere close by south Alabama or northwest Florida this weekend. The bad news is because the models changed so drastically today, we have had to lower rain chances for Sunday into Monday AND raise our high temperature forecast higher since we won’t have nearly as many clouds around. We still have model uncertainty as to where PTC #9 will ultimately go, although models have been consistent today in shifting a bit to the east. This would keep our area OUT of the impacts zone from this developing system if this scenario verifies.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS… There is now a tropical storm warning in effect for all of the northern islands in the Bahamas as this tropical disturbance or “potential tropical cyclone” is expected to develop into at tropical storm while moving over these areas. These are the same islands that were devastated by Hurricane Dorian only a few weeks ago. While the rain and gusty winds certainly won’t help recovery efforts, the good news is this system will be FAR weaker than Dorian as it passes by.

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NOMENCLATURE… If I could wave a magic wand and eliminate one “weather term,” it would be ‘potential tropical cyclone.’ The term was introduced 2 years ago. The term serves basically one main purpose and that is so the National Hurricane Center can go ahead and issue proper tropical storm and/or hurricane warnings in advance of a tropical storm actually developing. The rationale and logic makes sense. The actual term they choose to slap on this type of situation, however, is another story. It has truly been a nightmare (and even confusing for meteorologists) as to explaining what a “PTC” actually is. The nomenclature is simply not good. Basically, this system remains an open trough or tropical wave that has NOT developed a low-level center of circulation. It’s not a tropical storm. It’s technically not a tropical depression yet. It probably will become one in the hours/days ahead. Practically, you can think of this as a tropical depression. That’s where we’re headed. Sorry to nerd out and rant, but we need to become easier to understand, not more difficult.

HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL FORECAST… High school football games across south Alabama and northwest Florida this Friday should be dry. Kickoff temperatures will be in the 80s, falling into the upper-70s by the end of the games. We’ll call it a 0-10% chance of rain across our region. Vast majority of us will be dry.

REVISED WEEKEND FORECAST FOR LOCAL AREA… There will be scattered showers and thunderstorms around on Saturday (20-30% chance) and on Sunday (40-50% chance). Rain chances have been lowered somewhat, however, since we won’t be dealing with a tropical storm most likely. High temperatures will be quite hot, in the mid-90s each day.

APP… Many, MANY updates will be posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.

I’ll have more details in your Friday #rzw forecast video that will be posted by 7:15AM. Until then, be sure to catch my other, brief updates in the RedZone Weather app in the hours ahead.

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