8:04PM October 9, 2019

COOLER AIR COMING IN ON SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES BY… Cooler temperatures will arrive on Saturday as we get our first, more significant, taste of fall. The map attached shows projected temperatures AT 7AM on Saturday, meaning this is simply a snapshot of the forecast. The cold front will be advancing eastward across our area Saturday morning. Two bits of news to share this evening on this point: 1) The latest guidance now suggests that while we will have cooler temperatures in place for Saturday and Sunday morning, Sunday may be warmer than previously thought. Highs on Monday will probably rebound into the mid-80s. 2) Rain chances associated with the passage of this cold front remain low, unfortunately. Our area continues to be parched from the warm, dry days. Some areas have had scattered showers briefly over the last week, but vast majority of us have been dry. Let’s look at a few more details…

RAIN CHANCES NOT ZERO, BUT THEY REMAIN LOW FOR NOW… The good news concerning the low rain chances is that I expect many, if not all, of the high school football games across south Alabama and northwest Florida to remain dry Friday evening. We could have a few showers, especially across west Alabama, late Friday evening. A decaying line of showers and thunderstorms will likely pass through our area on Saturday morning. There will be some spots that will have no rain, but some isolated locales could have rainfall totals of 0.75” or more. The severe weather risk with this cold front passage is at or near zero, as of now.

UNFORTUNATELY, SHORT LIVED COOL DOWN… High temperatures on Saturday will be in the 70s and near 80° near the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. I expect Sunday morning to be the coolest morning out of the next 7 days with overnight lows in the 50s and low-60s across our area. We quickly rebound into the low- to mid-80s on Sunday ahead of temperatures Monday into Tuesday that will probably be slightly above our climatological norms for this time of year.

MORE RAIN POSSIBLE ONE WEEK FROM TODAY… Forecast confidence as we go into next week is unusually low, with multiple model solutions pointing to different solutions. For now, I think it’s prudent to suggest at least some chance of rain late in the day on Monday into Tuesday. It is too early to know whether severe weather will be a concern, but early indications do NOT point to a tornado risk. We will keep watching and bring you the latest in future forecast updates in the days ahead.

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I’ll have your next full forecast video posted by 7:15AM on Thursday. See you then!

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