POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE 16… The National Hurricane Center has issued the first advisory on Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen, located in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This is the area of low pressure we’ve been tracking in the western Gulf. NHC is now confident that this system will become a tropical or subtropical storm in the next 12-24 hours, thus they issue the “potential tropical cyclone” designation in order for them to post adequate tropical storm watches and warnings. The storm will take the name “Nestor” in the hours ahead. In this case, a tropical storm warning has been issued for the entirety of our coastline in south Alabama and northwest Florida.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING… There is a tropical storm warning in effect from the Mississippi/Alabama border near Dauphin Island eastward to the Ochlockonee River south of Tallahassee, Florida. There also is a separate tropical storm warning for parts of Louisiana from Grand Isle, Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from the Ochlockonee River southeast to Yankeetown, Florida.
THURSDAY MORNING DISCUSSION ABOUT LOCAL TROPICAL IMPACTS… Confidence is high regarding local impacts. The main question, at this point, concerns the timing of these impacts. Regardless of if this tropical disturbance acquires formal tropical or subtropical characteristics, heavy rain will be likely at times this weekend across our area. This will continue to help mitigate localized drought conditions. The greater chances of rain will clearly happen closer to the immediate Alabama and northwest Florida beach zones. Depending on the exact track of this developing system, there also could be gusty (30-50mph) winds at the immediate coastal areas, isolated tornadoes across the region, and potentially isolated instances of flash flooding. Significant wind issues are not expected for any of our inland areas, as this will likely be a fairly “weak” tropical/subtropical storm. “Weak” is subjective, and there still could be significant impacts closer to the coast, however.
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I will have updates throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app and posted on Facebook as needed.