7:14PM October 17, 2019

SEVERE WEATHER EVENT POSSIBLE MONDAY… This is totally separate from the tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico! The Storm Prediction Center has outlined much of Alabama, Mississippi, eastern Louisiana, and northwest Florida in their Level 2 (out of 5) risk zone valid for Monday, October 21. This means that isolated severe storms, including a few tornadoes, will become possible Monday ahead of an advancing strong cold front. The entirety of south Alabama and northwest Florida is included in this risk zone, meaning now is the time to make sure that you’re ready for this severe weather potential AND the peak of our secondary severe weather season (which typically begins around November 1 and lasts through December). We need to get through the tropical storm on Friday into Saturday before we really start focusing on this event, but I want you to have an early “heads up” and be thinking about where you’ll be on Monday in case tornadoes become more likely.

MODEL AGREEMENT IS NOTABLY HIGH… This is a severe weather risk that the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has outlooked five days out, meaning model agreement is high and confidence is growing that we will have at least isolated severe storms. We note that early indications point to the potential for all severe weather hazards (isolated tornadoes, damaging winds, and perhaps large hail in the more discrete, isolated storms). SPC even notes the potential for supercell thunderstorm development in their discussion today. All of this should be a reminder that we need to keep close tabs on this event as it approaches. I’ll be working this weekend to bring you the very latest in the RedZone Weather app.

TELL FRIENDS TO BE INFORMED… We all have friends and family members (even yours truly!) that aren’t as “weather aware” as some of us. Especially as we get closer to this first potentially significant severe weather potential of our fall season, please join me in trying to help get the word out about the potential for severe weather, including tornadoes. This is the type of messaging we really want to push during the upcoming year: MOST folks are able to get tornado warnings, but a big chunk of folks that get the warnings don’t do anything about them. We encourage everyone to take proper tornado warning precautions if your area goes under a tornado warning.

PTC16/NESTOR UPDATE SOON… I am in the process of getting ready for our live video update discussing Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 (aka what will be Tropical Storm Nestor). We will start the live video by 8:30PM at the latest.

APP ALERTS… Be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app (redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download) and set up your customized alerts. Once you have the RZW app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner), then tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the specific alerts you would like to receive. We have a solution for everyone – folks that want a lot of information and folks that may only want the important, rare alerts. Check out details in the Alerts tab today!

See you in the live video soon!

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