7:15AM October 19, 2019

NESTOR MOVING INTO FLORIDA; OUR FOCUS SHIFTS TO MONDAY… Tropical Storm Nestor continues to move northeast into the Florida Panhandle and southwestern Georgia on this Saturday morning. Scattered showers will remain possible across Alabama and northwest Florida through this afternoon before tapering off this evening. Temperatures are in the mid-60s in most spots this morning. Temperatures will slowly rise to the low-70s later today. Our focus will increasingly shift to Monday when our next round of showers and thunderstorms approaches from the northwest. The overall risk of severe weather has shifted a bit farther to the north of our area, yet we still are included in the Level 1 (out of 5) marginal severe weather risk for Monday. Let’s look at details…

NESTOR TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND MOVE AWAY FROM OUR AREA… Tropical Storm Nestor is increasingly becoming subtropical and will soon become an extratropical storm that will move northeast into the Carolinas and ultimately into the Atlantic Ocean. There is a very low chance of a few tornadoes today along and east of the center of circulation of Nestor across south Georgia and northern Florida. We note the rest of the tropical Atlantic basin remains quiet with no more tropical storms expected to develop in the next 5 days.

NICE SUNDAY AHEAD OF ACTIVE WEATHER ON MONDAY… We get a brief respite from the active weather tomorrow (Sunday) as partly cloudy skies and warm temperatures dominate our weather pattern. High temperatures are expected to surge into the low-80s on Sunday.

ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING…Our next round of active weather happens on Monday, most likely in the afternoon and evening hours, as a cold front kicks off showers and thunderstorms across our region. Some of these storms could be on the strong or potentially severe side.

SEVERE WEATHER TIMING ON MONDAY… 2PM to 9PM Monday is our initial window for when the development of strong thunderstorms across south Alabama and northwest Florida will be most likely to happen on Monday. We’ll need to observe more data and refine this in the days ahead, so please check back for the latest updates. Showers and intermittent rain could start in the morning hours of Monday, especially across west Alabama, and last until Tuesday morning in some locales on the eastern side of our region.

POTENTIAL HAZARDS ON MONDAY… Isolated tornadoes and damaging wind gusts will be the main severe weather concerns in any of the storms that can ramp up to severe levels on Monday afternoon/evening. The risk for large hail is low, but not zero. The risk of flash flooding remains very low.

RISK PLACEMENT FOR MONDAY… The Storm Prediction Center has the slightly higher Level 2 (out of 5) risk zone in place for communities farther to our north in parts of central and north Alabama. In addition, a big chunk of Mississippi is included in the Level 2 risk. Part of our area is included in the lower end Level 1, marginal risk zone.

EARLY LOOK AT THE REST OF NEXT WEEK… After the rain and storms on Monday, we could have a few lingering showers into Tuesday morning when the cold front moves by our region. Skies will clear on Tuesday afternoon as temperatures tumble into the 60s by Tuesday evening. Wednesday will be mostly sunny, yet quite cool, with high temperatures struggling to get to 70° in some inland locales. Overnight lows will be in the 50s. There is a chance that another round of active weather may happen Thursday into Friday of the upcoming week as another cold front approaches from the northwest. It is too early for specific details, but it appears there will be at least some chance of a few strong storms. Stay tuned!

APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

Have a great Saturday!

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