ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE P.M. MONDAY… Our next chance of rain and storms will happen tomorrow (Monday, October 21) as a cold front approaches from the northwest. The entirety of south Alabama and northwest Florida is now involved in the low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) severe weather risk valid for Monday. The main concern will happen during the afternoon and evening hours of Monday when storms could be on the strong side, potentially sparking damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado or two. Vast majority of our local area will have another round of beneficial rain with not much else in the way of impact from this system. Let’s look at a few details this morning.
LEVEL 2 RISK TO OUR NORTHWEST… Parts of northwest Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, and western Tennessee are included in the Level 2 (out of 5) slightly higher risk zone to potentially have a few strong to severe storms on Monday. The Storm Prediction Center has refined the Level 2 zones to these areas where the best combination of atmospheric shear, instability, and moisture will be Monday. These areas can expect scattered instances of strong to severe storms. In Alabama, the following locales are included in the Level 2 risk: Tuscaloosa, Decatur, Florence, Muscle Shoals, Russellville, Hamilton, Double Springs, Jasper, Athens, Ardmore, Fayette, Carrollton, Haleyville, Eutaw, Livingston, and Butler. We note that Jackson (MS), Memphis (TN), Shreveport (LA), and Monroe (LA) are included in this Level 2 risk zone as well.
LEVEL 1 RISK FOR OUR LOCAL AREA… All of our local area is included in the low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) risk zone valid for Monday. This means that widespread severe weather is NOT expected, but a rogue strong or briefly severe storm or two will be possible. This includes Mobile, Pensacola, Daphne, Spanish Fort, Fairhope, Foley, Orange Beach, Thomasville, Jackson, Chatom, Millry, McIntosh, Monroeville, Beatrice, Uriah, Brewton, Atmore, Flomaton, Evergreen, Castleberry, Greenville, Georgiana, Andalusia, Opp, Florala, Century, Molino, Jay, Milton, Pace, Navarre, Crestview, Baker, Destin, and Fort Walton Beach. We also note that Birmingham, Auburn, Montgomery, Huntsville, Dothan, Troy, Selma, Camden, Geneva, Elba, Enterprise, Alex City, Gadsden, and Talladega are included in this lower-end risk zone.
STORM MODES MONDAY… The main risk locally will probably come from an advancing QLCS/squall line that approaches from the west on Monday afternoon. Isolated tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps some hail will be the main concerns with this advancing line of storms.
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING MONDAY… This is valid for south Alabama and northwest Florida: The greatest chance of a strong or severe storm happening will be from 10AM to 10PM, with the core window being from 2PM to 8PM. Note that we may have to refine this timeline, depending on the speed of the squall line that develops.
APP… Be sure to join me in the RedZone Weather app throughout the day on Monday as we bring you the latest information and alerts as needed. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the RZW app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the specific alerts you would like to get straight from me.
My next forecast video will be posted by 2PM this afternoon. See you then!