7:03AM October 23, 2019

FANTASTIC WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A WET, UNSETTLED PATTERN… Picture perfect weather is set to happen on this Wednesday across south Alabama and northwest Florida with ample sunshine and high temperatures in the low-70s. There is a good chance that today will end up being the nicest day out of the next 7 days as we have a significant rain chance setting up for Friday with the potential for several wet, dreary days this weekend into early next week. Forecast confidence beyond Saturday is a bit lower than usual, however, as we are watching several upper-level atmospheric features to our west that may or may not cause higher rain chances next week. No forecast video this morning as I am recovering from strep throat and have no voice this morning. Thanks to everyone who was patient with me over the last few days with my raspy/sick voice! We’re going to give it a rest today and get back at it once antibiotics start working more. Let’s look at your forecast details.

NICE WEDNESDAY; INCREASING CLOUDS THURSDAY… Gorgeous, sunny skies are expected today across the region with high temperatures near 73° in most spots. No rain is expected today as high pressure remains in control of our weather pattern. Thursday morning will feature temperatures in the upper-40s inland with low-50s likely closer to the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. Clouds will increase throughout the day on Thursday as temperatures rise into the mid-70s in the afternoon hours.

RAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT… Our next chance of rain happens in the evening hours of Thursday as an area of low pressure approaches from the west. Rain will be most likely on Thursday night in west Alabama and perhaps closer to the Alabama beaches. I expect showers and thunderstorms to spread inland in the early morning hours of Friday.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY FRIDAY… Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected across the region during the daytime hours of Friday as a surface area of low pressure develops along a cold front located to our northwest. There is a chance that there could be some heavy rain involved with this event on Friday with isolated instances of flash flooding being possible. We note that the latest guidance from the Weather Prediction Center notes 1-2” of rain in total being likely on Friday across the region. Widespread severe weather is not currently expected on Friday, although some of the storms could be on the strong side at times. Cloud-to-ground lightning will be a concern in the stronger storms.

POTENTIALLY WET PATTERN THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK… Unfortunately, the two major weather models that we look at on a daily basis (the American-based GFS and the European-based ECMWF) have featured a pretty substantial disagreement in regard to the weather setup as we go into the latter half of the weekend into early next week. The GFS has trended drier while the Euro has consistently suggested a more wet pattern. You can see that our official forecast (attached image) trends more toward the wetter solution. I should note that the forecast confidence beyond Saturday is unusually low. We may have to lower rain chances depending on the data coming in today. I’ll bring you the latest information in the RedZone Weather app.

DISTURBANCE TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO… The National Hurricane Center has highlighted a developing area of low pressure currently situated on the Yucatan Peninsula as a system that has a low (20%) chance of becoming a tropical storm in the Bay of Campeche (southern Gulf of Mexico) this weekend. From the NHC discussion: “Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize and Guatemala are associated with a tropical wave. This system is forecast to move west-northwestward and emerge over the far southwestern Gulf of Mexico by late Thursday. Some development is then possible on Friday near the east coast of Mexico before the disturbance likely becomes absorbed by a cold front this weekend.” The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is quiet with no other tropical disturbances noted.

APP… Be sure to download the RedZone Weather app if you haven’t already done so. We post content frequently throughout the day in the RZW app to keep you informed of the latest weather happenings across south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download.

Have a great Wednesday!

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