3:08PM 11/7/2019 – RZW Exec

LOW-END RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING… RZW Exec members, good evening! The Storm Prediction Center has hastily issued an update to their morning convective outlook including much of south Alabama and all of northwest Florida in their Level 1 (out of 5) low-end severe weather risk valid through this evening. The atmosphere is a bit more volitile and unstable than expected today, thus some of the storms may ramp up and produce brief tornadoes over the next few hours. Areas in the darker shade of green are now involved in the low-end risk zone.

WHAT TO EXPECT: NEXT FEW HOURS… Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to move east across our area before rain becomes more stratiform and consistent later this evening. One or two of the storms this evening may ramp up to strong or severe levels. We note that storms have “overperformed” today in terms of the lightning output. This is often a sign that instability in the atmosphere may be a bit higher, and thus storms may have a bit more energy to work with than models suggested.

TORNADO WARNING EARLIER… We had a round of tornado warning coverage that started about an hour ago due to a cell that ramped up quickly near Prichard. Jay Ates, a gentleman who apparently works at one of the ship yards near there, sent us a video of a brief, spin-up tornado that happened. The cell ramped up over the Mobile-Tensaw River Delta before weakening as it moved into Baldwin County near areas north of Spanish Fort. Atmospheric parameters have not appeared favorable for severe weather today, but this situation goes to show that we still have a LOT to learn in the world of meteorology and there is still an element of unpredictability.

If we have more tornado warnings in the hours ahead, be sure to join me in our uninterrupted Facebook Live coverage or in the Live tab here in the RedZone Weather app!

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