RAIN LIKELY TONIGHT AHEAD OF VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY… Bitterly cold temperatures and wind chill values are ahead for Alabama and northwest Florida late Tuesday into Wednesday. Wind chill values on Wednesday morning are projected to be in the upper-10s across our region. Before we get to the major cold, we’ve got one more warm day on this Veterans Day Monday. Rain chances will increase throughout the day with most of the rain happening in the overnight hours into Tuesday morning. Scattered rain showers could happen as early as this afternoon, however. As of now, there is basically no chance of accumulating snow locally and a low chance of a few sleet pellets happening across parts of Clarke, Washington, Choctaw, Wilcox, and Marengo counties in a 2-3 hour window on Tuesday morning. Let’s look at your forecast details.
We honor all of the many veterans of our great nation today. Thank you for your service!
WHAT TO EXPECT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS… Clouds will increase in coverage over the next several hours. There could be a few showers, particularly closer to the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches, this afternoon into this evening. High temperatures today will be in the low-70s. Sunset happens at 4:56PM. I expect showers to increase in coverage after sunset. Rain will be widespread across our region this evening into the overnight hours and into Tuesday morning.
INSTABILITY REMAINS LOW; LITTLE TO NO RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER… There is a high chance we’ll go through the rain tonight into Tuesday with little to no thunder or lightning issues. Atmospheric instability remains very low, thus limiting the potential for thunderstorms overall with this event. While I can’t completely rule out a few lightning strikes, this will mostly be a rain event. The severe weather risk is also greatly limited by the lack of instability. It is more than reasonable to say the severe weather risk is near zero.
RAIN IN THE FORECAST; SNOW IS NOT IN THE FORECAST… The highest rain chances across our region will happen between 10PM Monday and 8AM on Tuesday. Rain will quickly kick out of our area to the east on Tuesday morning. We mentioned in the detailed forecast discussion yesterday that some of the higher-resolution model data suggested the potential for a brief changeover from rain to freezing rain or sleet. This data has remained consistent into this morning, thus I think it is reasonable to at least mention the possibility of a few sleet pellets and/or freezing rain happening across west Alabama’s Choctaw, Washington, Clarke, Wilcox, and Marengo counties. There will only be a very brief window of time this happens – when the back edge of the precipitation area is moving through these areas. At this time, it seems most reasonable from 7AM to 10AM. If any sleet or freezing rain happens, it probably won’t last long at all (maybe 5-10 minutes). No impacts are expected because of this small potential at this time. For the rest of us to the south and east of west Alabama, this will be an “exclusively rain” event.
VERY COLD TUESDAY… There is a high chance that temperatures “go the wrong way” on Tuesday. Our technical high temperature will happen just after midnight when most spots are in the 60s. The cold front will move by between 2AM and 8AM, bringing down temperatures into the 40s by 8AM Tuesday. Most spots will remain in the 40s all day Tuesday with a cold 5-15 mph wind out of the northwest. Wind chill values may be in the 30s all day on Tuesday. Basically, it’s going to be quite COLD Tuesday into Wednesday!
FREEZE WARNING COMING FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING… A Freeze Watch has been issued for the local area. NWS Mobile will upgrade this to a Freeze Warning for Wednesday morning. Air temperatures will be in the mid- to upper-20s by 6AM Wednesday with wind chill values in the upper-10s and low-20s across inland areas of south Alabama. We encourage everyone to review their cold weather safety list (what we call the “4 P’s” – check on elderly PEOPLE that may not have good heating sources, outside PETS that may need to be brought inside, outdoor PLANTS that may need to be covered, and exposed PIPES that could burst due to multiple hours below freezing temperatures).
FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST ON THURSDAY… Our next chance of rain after Tuesday will happen Thursday as an area of low pressure passes to our south in the central Gulf of Mexico. Coastal areas could have a few rain showers primarily during the evening hours of Thursday. Severe weather is not expected and temperatures likely won’t be low enough to support winter weather issues.
EARLY LOOK AT THE UPCOMING WEEKEND… Sunny skies are likely on both Saturday and on Sunday. High temperatures will likely be in the 60s with morning lows in the low-40s. That is seasonal for mid-November and certainly a bit warmer than the very cold temperatures we’ll have in the middle part of the week.
APP… redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the free RedZone Weather app. We post brief updates throughout each day in the app, keeping you up-to-date about the latest happenings in weather across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Once you have the free app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
See the graphics and details in your Sunday evening #rzw forecast video. Enjoy your evening!