RAIN MOVES OUT LATER TODAY; MILD THANKSGIVING; WEEKEND STRONG STORMS… Showers and thunderstorms in place across parts of south Alabama and northwest Florida will progressively move east of our area later this morning into the early afternoon hours. We have essentially escaped another potential for severe weather today, but our luck may run out as we go into Saturday and Sunday as strong to severe thunderstorms may become possible ahead of a strong cold front. Parameters appear to be more supportive for the potential for strong storms capable of producing damaging winds and potentially a few, isolated tornadoes this weekend. While temperatures will continue to be slightly above our climatological norms through Saturday, next week looks to feature sharply colder temperatures. Let’s look at all the details in order.
NO WEATHER ISSUES ON THANKSGIVING DAY… Partly cloudy skies are expected for Thanksgiving Day. High temperatures will be around 72° in most spots. No rain is expected on Thursday! Gorgeous day! Patchy fog is possible in the early morning hours.
COOL & DRY FOR BLACK FRIDAY MORNING… If you are headed out for shopping late Thursday night or early Friday morning, temperatures will be in the 50s. No rain is expected and skies will be mostly clear.
GORGEOUS, MILD FRIDAY… Gorgeous weather is likely on Black Friday with high temperatures surging into the upper-70s across the region. Clouds will be on the increase late in the day. If your local high school football team is still in the AHSAA playoffs, there’s good news in that game time temperatures at the 7PM kickoff will be quite mild (low-60s) with no rain issues expected. Temperatures will fall into the mid-50s by the 4th quarter of each game.
CLOUDS RETURN ON SATURDAY… Ahead of our next potent cold front, clouds are set to increase in coverage across the area on Saturday morning and afternoon. High temperatures on Saturday might make a run at the 80 degree mark. We could have a few showers late in the day on Saturday.
IRON BOWL FORECAST ON TRACK… Please note this forecast is specific to Auburn, Alabama and is not indicative of forecast conditions in south Alabama or northwest Florida. Unfortunately, rain chances on Saturday have increased for Auburn where the Iron Bowl is set to happen. We’ll call it a 20% chance of showers from Noon to 4PM then a 50-60% chance of showers from 4PM to 8PM in Auburn. The game kicks off at 2:30PM CST and will be televised on local CBS stations. Temperatures will be consistently in the low-70s for the duration of the game. It won’t be too cold, but there is a chance fo a few showers in the latter half of the game. Take the ponchos just in case Jordan-Hare Stadium happens to be under one of the showers. Any severe weather risk that sets up probably will be on the west side of the state Saturday afternoon, meaning there very likely won’t be any severe weather issues in Auburn Saturday afternoon.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SETS UP FOR SATURDAY… We are now seeing evidence of a potential for strong to severe thunderstorms Saturday P.M. into Sunday A.M. as a strong cold front arrives from the northwest. We’ll be able to get more concrete about the potential timeframe over the next few days. Atmospheric instability/CAPE looks to be in excess of 700 j/kg on Saturday afternoon, which could help storms to fire up. In addition, shear values look to be quite high with this event as is often the case in these cold season severe weather setups. This will likely be a situation where the overall severe weather risk will increase from west to east on Saturday as we go into the late evening hours.
POTENTIAL HAZARDS SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING… Damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes will be the main concerns this weekend with this passing cold front. It is too early to know the magnitude of how this event will set up. Details will become more clear later today and on Thanksgiving Thursday. Be sure to check back with me for the very latest.
MUCH COLDER NEXT WEEK… After the cold front passes on Sunday, temperatures are poised to be much colder for next week. High temperatures Monday into Tuesday will drop back into the mid-50s with overnight lows perhaps near the freezing mark.
HURRICANE SEASON ENDS SATURDAY… The tropics are quiet, as should be the case as we close out hurricane season. The 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season officially ends on Saturday, November 30. The season will go down as a very active season with 18 named storms in total.
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See all the graphics and details in your Wednesday #rzw forecast video. Enjoy the day!