STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY… There is a low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) risk of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms across parts of west Alabama late Saturday evening into early Sunday morning. This will be a line of thunderstorms that is weakening by the time it reaches our area, but there is a chance the storms still could be marginally severe by the time they reach west Alabama. Much of the daytime hours of Saturday will be dry and warm with temperatures peaking near 80° in most spots. Rain chances will rise late in the day when we may have a few showers. Storms will be possible after 10PM Saturday. Much cooler air is slated to move in behind the advancing cold front late Sunday. Let’s look at the details.
LEVEL 1 RISK FOR WEST ALABAMA… The Storm Prediction Center includes parts of west Alabama in their Level 1 (out of 5) low-end, marginal risk zone meaning there is a chance of a few isolated strong or potentially severe thunderstorms. We expect vast majority of the severe weather issues on Saturday to happen earlier in the day and well to the west of our area. Parts of Clarke, Washington, Mobile, Choctaw, Wilcox, and Marengo counties are involved in the low-end, Level 1 risk zone. This includes places like Thomasville, Coffeeville, Chatom, Wilmer, Citronelle, Vinegar Bend, Jackson, Leroy, Millry, Butler, Sweet Water, Demopolis, and Linden.
WEAKER STORMS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AL & NW FL… Storms could be strong at times, but overall will probably be weakening as they cross our area from west to east. We note 80 percent of our local area (basically the Alabama River and points eastward) is included in the General Thunderstorms zone as opposed to a formal severe weather risk zone. This includes locales like Mobile, Pensacola, Fairhope, Monroeville, Evergreen, Greenville, Andalusia, Opp, Brewton, Atmore, Century, Flomaton, Jay, Navarre, Milton, Pace, Crestview, Destin, Fort Walton Beach, and surrounding areas. Keep in mind that some or all of these areas may be included in a higher risk zone as the event draws closer.
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING… Isolated rain showers are possible as early as 6PM across the region, but I would suggest rain chances will remain at or below 10% before 9PM. Showers will pick up in number through midnight. The core timeframe for severe weather for west Alabama will happen from 10PM Saturday to 7AM Sunday with the core risk being from midnight to 4AM. We will continue to observe model trends and bring you updates in the hours ahead. Be sure to check back with me for the very latest tomorrow and on Saturday morning.
LEVEL 2 RISK ACROSS PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA… The greater severe weather issues will almost certainly happen across parts of east Texas, southern Arkansas, northern Louisiana, and western Mississippi. Those are the areas included in the slightly higher Level 2 (out of 5) slight risk zone. This includes places like Baton Rouge, Jackson (MS), Alexandria, Monroe, Shreveport, Natchez, Brookhaven, Vicksburg, Ruston, Natchitoches, Lake Charles, and Yazoo City. Isolated tornadoes and damaging straight line winds will be MORE likely to occur in those areas.
MUCH COOLER TEMPS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY… Temperatures will drastically decrease as we go into the early part of next week due to a cold front that will cross our area from west to east on Sunday morning. High temperatures Monday into Tuesday will drop into the mid-50s with morning lows in the low- to mid-30s.
APP… redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the free RedZone Weather app. We post brief updates throughout each day in the app, keeping you up-to-date about the latest happenings in weather across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Once you have the free app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
I’ll have your next full forecast video posted by 7:15AM Friday. Happy Thanksgiving!
