SEVERE WEATHER RISK MONDAY NIGHT… Isolated tornadoes and damaging wind gusts could happen Monday night as a potent cold front approaches from the northwest. The greatest chance of severe weather locally will happen across inland areas of southwest Alabama where there is to a slightly higher risk zone in place. Parts of Clarke, Monroe, Washington, and Butler counties are involved in the Level 2 (out of 5) slight risk zone. The remainder of south Alabama and northwest Florida are involved in the lower-end, Level 1 marginal risk. We note that models have trended toward a stronger system, thus further outlook upgrades and risk expansions will be possible. Be sure to check back with me tomorrow afternoon and on Monday as this risk approaches! A few Saturday evening notes are below.
MAIN CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT: TORNADO & WIND THREAT… Parameters have continued to increase today, suggesting a growing threat of a few isolated tornadoes and damaging wind gusts in the stronger storms that happen on Monday night into early Tuesday morning. It is too early to pinpoint exact specifics, but odds are we will have a “messy storm mode,” meaning a squall line with perhaps some discrete supercellular-type storms embedded along the line or out ahead of the line of storms.
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING MONDAY NIGHT… This has been changed a bit since this morning and further refinements are expected. 9PM Monday to 9AM Tuesday looks to be the window when storms will move across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Core timeframe looks to be from 11PM Monday to 4AM Tuesday. We will likely have to adjust this timeframe somewhat over the next 48 hours as more model data comes in and we’re able to get more specific. Be sure to check back with me for updates on the severe weather timing!
LEVEL 2 RISK FOR INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA… It has been awhile since any part of our area has been involved in the Level 2 (out of 5) slight risk for severe weather. The Storm Prediction Center has included a big chunk of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana in this Level 2 risk. Locally, parts of Clarke, Monroe, Butler, and Washington counties are involved in this risk area. This includes places like Thomasville, Monroeville, Beatrice, Chatom, Millry, Coffeeville, Grove Hill, Jackson, Leroy, Fulton, Forest Home, and surrounding areas to the north. Birmingham, Montgomery, Huntsville, Tuscaloosa, Demopolis, Camden, Butler, Livingston, Marion, Cullman, and Florence are also included in this slightly higher risk zone where tornadoes and damaging winds may be slightly more likely to happen Monday evening into early Tuesday morning.
LEVEL 1 RISK FOR THE REST OF US… Excluding the previously mentioned areas in the paragraph above, the rest of us are included in the low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) marginal severe weather risk zone. This is the zone where widespread severe weather is less likely, but still a possibility. This includes areas like Mobile, Pensacola, Daphne, Fairhope, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Brewton, Atmore, Flomaton, Poarch, Huxford, Evergreen, Andalusia, Opp, Florala, Greenville, Georgiana, Wilmer, Citronelle, Dauphin Island, Bay Minette, Century, Bratt, Jay, Navarre, Destin, Fort Walton Beach, and Crestview. All of southeast Alabama near Dothan, Enterprise, and Geneva are also included in this low-end risk zone.
APP… redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the free RedZone Weather app. We post brief updates throughout each day in the app, keeping you up-to-date about the latest happenings in weather across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Once you have the free app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
I’ll have forecast updates as needed throughout the day on Sunday in the RedZone Weather app. Next detailed video and discussion will be posted by 3PM on Sunday. Have a good evening!