12:10PM 12/27/2019 – RZW Exec

LOW-END RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY… RZW Exec partners, good Friday afternoon! We’re looking ahead to the latter half of the weekend when we could have a few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms move across our area. A cold front will approach our area from the northwest on Sunday. This frontal boundary will be the focus zone for where a few strong to severe storms may fire up as it crosses our area. I think, based on model trends over the last 72 hours, this is one of the more meager severe weather setups we’ve had, thus I am not expecting widespread issues. The main concerns will be a brief, spin-up tornado or two and damaging wind gusts in the stronger storms. Again, not expecting these hazards to be numerous across the region, but the risk is “high enough” to warrant at least mentioning it throughout the weekend. No flash flooding issues are expected and large hail is not expected. I will continue to monitor parameters as there is a chance this risk could increase somewhat. Below is the post we will push publicly within the hour. As always, let me know if you have specific questions. Have a nice Friday evening!

ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY… The Storm Prediction Center has placed all of Alabama and northwest Florida in their Level 1 (out of 5) low-end severe weather risk zone valid from Sunday into early Monday. Model guidance is now highlighting the possibility of a few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms moving across our area. The main concerns will be brief, spin-up tornadoes and damaging wind gusts in the stronger storms. The latest guidance suggests this severe weather potential will happen a bit later than initially expected, likely late Sunday into early Monday. Severe weather parameters seem to be increasing somewhat, thus we will need to monitor this potential as we go into the weekend. Be sure to check back with me Saturday morning for our next detailed update that will be posted by 7:15AM. Let’s look at details.

LEVEL 1 RISK FOR ALL OF OUR LOCAL AREA… SPC includes the entire state of Alabama and all of northwest Florida in their Level 1 (out of 5) low-end, marginal severe weather risk zone. This risk zone also includes parts of southern Tennessee, much of eastern Mississippi, and the western Georgia. There is a chance a slightly higher risk level may be warranted for parts of our area on Saturday.

MAIN CONCERNS: LOW-END TORNADO RISK, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS… There is a concern we could have a few discrete supercell storms out ahead of the main squall line that develops along the advancing frontal boundary, although this idea is certainly NOT set in stone. If models continue to show that potential (for supercells), we will need to adjust risk levels even higher. For now, we’re expecting a line of strong to severe storms that moves across our area from northwest to southeast late in the day on Sunday extending into the very early morning hours of Monday.

SEVERE WEATHER TIMING: LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY… 5PM Sunday to 5AM Monday is the 12 hour window in which storms will be most likely to be strong or severe. The core risk will likely be from 9PM Sunday to 2AM Monday. This timing will probably need to be adjusted in the next 48 hours before this event. Please check back with me tomorrow (Saturday) morning for the latest.

I’ll have more details posted in the RedZone Weather app later today, tonight, and on Saturday as this severe weather potential gets closer. Let me know if you have any questions. Have a nice evening!

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