LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES TODAY; SHOWERS & STORMS LIKELY SUNDAY… Cloud coverage will continue to increase on this Friday with light rain and sprinkles being possible across the region. I am not expecting widespread, major rain today but there may be sprinkles at times especially this afternoon into this evening. The bigger rain event is set to happen on Saturday night into Sunday as a cold front crosses our region from northwest to southeast. Severe weather parameters on Sunday remain LOW, but not entirely zero. The Storm Prediction Center has included ALL of our local area in their Level 1 (out of 5) low-end severe weather risk zone valid for Sunday. The main concern Sunday will be gusty winds as a line of storms moves by. The overall tornado risk looks fairly low for now. Much cooler air arrives Sunday evening behind the cold front, paving the way for a cool start to next week. The unsettled weather pattern will continue into the New Year, meaning we could have some rain around for the New Year’s Eve celebrations across the area. See specifics about what you can expect below.
SPRINKLES & RAIN AROUND TODAY; CLOUDY SKIES… While there could be a few breaks in the clouds at times today, I expect much of the day on this Friday to be somewhat dreary. Clouds and intermittent bouts of light rain are expected. High temperatures will again be in the low- to mid-70s across south Alabama and northwest Florida.
WARM, WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE SATURDAY… Tomorrow (Saturday) will be quite similar to today with numerous clouds, some sprinkles at times, and mild/warmish temperatures in the 70s by the afternoon hours. Rain coverage will increase Saturday night ahead of the cold front slated to move by on Sunday.
SHOWERS & STORMS MOVE BY SUNDAY… The greatest chance of rain over the next few days will almost certainly happen on Sunday. Model guidance has suggested the approaching cold front will be a bit slower than initially anticipated, thus rain chances look to be highest from 9AM to 6PM on Sunday. Scattered showers are expected. There could be a few embedded thunderstorms as well.
SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS REMAIN LOW… The overall risk of severe weather locally remains fairly low. The Storm Prediction Center has included ALL of our local area in their Level 1 (out of 5) marginal severe weather risk valid for Sunday. I think this is a good call as this will probably be one of those “very low-end type risk” situations where the risk of a tornado and damaging winds is not at zero, but it’s closer to zero. We’ve been alluding to this all week in that this is a classic wintertime “higher shear, lower instability” events where the ‘severe weather ingredients’ just don’t come together as well. We’ll keep watching parameters closely, but the model trends have been positive for us thus far. I caution: We’re still two days out from this event, so we need to monitor parameters carefully. I’ll have another detailed update on Saturday morning. Please check back with me then for the latest.
COOLER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY… Temperatures will drop into the 50s Sunday evening ahead of a much cooler start for early next week. High temperatures will drop to near 60° with morning lows in the 40s.
WET NEW YEAR’S EVE POSSIBLE… We will need to maintain a chance of rain late Tuesday into early Wednesday as we ring in the new year. Wind direction will continue to be out of the south, meaning warm, humid air will continue to move into our region, supporting the chance of showers.
UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES LATE NEXT WEEK… The end of next week (aka the beginning of the year 2020) looks pretty unsettled with a chance of rain Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday of the upcoming week. Temperatures will be pretty seasonal with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.
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See all the graphics and details in your Friday #rzw forecast video. Have a good weekend!