LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES TODAY; STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING… Showers will be possible at times today but the greater chance of rain and the risk of a few strong to potentially severe thunderstorms will happen on Sunday. The Storm Prediction Center maintains a low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) marginal severe weather risk for Alabama and northwest Florida valid for Sunday. The entirety of southwest Alabama and northwest Florida is included in this risk zone. This means that big, widespread issues are NOT expected but we can’t rule out a brief tornado or stronger storms that could produce damaging wind gusts across the region. The core timeframe for stronger storms will happen from 6PM to 11PM Sunday. After the storms on Sunday, much cooler air will surge into our region. New Year’s Eve celebrations should be dry across the region, but we almost certainly will have some rain later in the upcoming week. Let’s look at your details.
FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE TODAY; MILD TEMPERATURES… Mostly cloudy skies are likely on this Saturday across our region. There could be a few sprinkles or areas of light rain at times. We’ll call it a 20% chance of showers. No severe weather issues are expected on this Saturday. Temperatures will rise into the mid-70s with most spots probably reaching 74-76° by 3PM!
RAIN AT TIMES SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS… Rain chances will increase Sunday morning into the afternoon hours. There could be a few general thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon well in advance of the line of stronger storms expected to move through later in the evening hours. Temperatures on Sunday will likely reach the mid- to upper-70s. Our area will be in a very moist, warm air mass out ahead of the cold front on Sunday during the daytime hours.
STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING… Brief, spin-up tornadoes and damaging wind gusts could happen in any of the thunderstorms that can ramp up to marginally severe levels late on Sunday. Those are the two hazards associated with this low-end severe weather potential. The latest convective outlook from the Storm Prediction Center this morning remains pretty much unchanged in that our entire local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida remains involved in the Level 1 (out of 5) marginal, low-end risk zone. Much of Mississippi, Louisiana, Tennessee, and western Georgia are also involved in this risk zone.
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING: SUNDAY EVENING… 3PM Sunday to 3AM Monday remains the 12 hour window in which storms will be most likely to be strong or severe. The core risk will likely be from 6PM to 11PM Sunday. Please keep in mind that intermittent rain showers may begin long before the severe weather risk arrives.
MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES MONDAY MORNING… We return to a more winter-like pattern Monday after the passage of the cold front responsible for all of the rain and low-end severe weather risk. High temperatures Monday will drop back into the 60s with morning lows by Tuesday morning being near 40 degrees. Temperatures will remain coolish through Wednesday, January 1.
NEW YEAR’S EVE TRENDING DRIER… Good news to report on the forecast for New Year’s Eve celebrations. Model guidance continues to trend toward a drier solution. I think it is prudent at this point to remove the discernible rain chance for Tuesday. Rain chances will increase on New Year’s Day, likely in the afternoon and evening hours. Afternoon highs on the last day of 2019 look to be in the low-60s with midnight/New Year temperatures being in the mid-40s.
MORE WET WEATHER LATE NEXT WEEK… More unsettled, mild, wet conditions are likely as we go into the latter half of the upcoming week after the New Year. High temperatures by Friday will be near 70 with morning lows rising into the 50s due to all the cloud cover that is expected.
APP… redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the free RedZone Weather app. We post brief updates throughout each day in the app, keeping you up-to-date about the latest happenings in weather across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Once you have the free app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
Have a great Saturday!