STORMS THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY; LEVEL 2 RISK TO OUR NORTH… Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage across south Alabama and northwest Florida over the next 8-10 hours. The Storm Prediction Center has introduced a Level 2 (out of 5) standard slight risk of severe storms for parts of northwest Alabama, northern Mississippi, and southern Tennessee. Much of central Alabama is included in the lower-end, Level 1 risk area where isolated stronger storms may happen. The overall tornado risk for our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida is now much lower, but it’s not quite zero across inland areas. I expect showers and storms to move through tonight. Some of the storms across inland counties may be strong at times. The risk of damaging winds and a brief, spin-up tornado is very low across our local area. I’ll be watching radar trends and posting updates in the RedZone Weather app as needed. Much cooler air arrives on Monday ahead of a dry, cool New Year’s Eve. Rain returns on Thursday. Let’s look at all of your forecast details.
LEVEL 2 (OUT OF 5) RISK OF STRONG STORMS IN NORTHWEST ALABAMA… The Storm Prediction Center introduced a Level 2 (out of 5) slight risk of strong to severe storms for northwest Alabama, north and central Mississippi, extreme northeastern Louisiana, and southern Tennessee. These are the areas that have the highest chance today of having a tornado or damaging wind gusts. This includes Huntsville, Decatur, Athens, Ardmore, Cullman, Jasper, Vernon, Hamilton, Double Springs, Russellville, Moulton, Muscle Shoals, Florence, and surrounding communities in northwest Alabama.
LOW-END RISK FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA… The Level 1 risk that was in place for our local area has been trimmed back and now includes much of northeast and central Alabama. These are the areas where the atmosphere is a bit more stable and not as conducive for a strong or severe storm later today. This includes areas like Birmingham, Montgomery, Auburn, Tuscaloosa, Gadsden, Anniston, Selma, Demopolis, Clanton, Prattville, Alexander City, Boaz, Oneonta, Fort Payne, Butler, Camden, and surrounding areas.
LOCAL RISK IS NOW LOWER… Nearly all of us in south Alabama and northwest Florida are now in the “General Thunderstorms” zone, aka out of any formal severe weather risk for today into tonight. This is good news! This means that storms could have quite a bit of lightning (potentially) and torrential downpours of rain, but the risk of a tornado and damaging winds is now much lower.
RAIN & STORMS OVERNIGHT; MUCH COOLER MONDAY… Rain chances will be at their peak locally tonight around 10PM. Rain clears out between 2AM and 5AM on Monday. Skies will clear from west to east during the day on Monday. Much cooler air will flow into our region behind the cold front. High temperatures on Monday will be in the low-60s.
SUNNY & COOL ON NEW YEAR’S EVE… Mostly sunny skies are expected for New Year’s Eve on Tuesday. High temperatures will be around the 60 degree mark. No rain is expected on Tuesday into Tuesday night.
NEW YEAR’S EVE FIREWORKS FORECAST… We’re kicking off the year 2020 with very seasonal temperatures. I expect most spots across the region to be in the 40s at the stroke of midnight on Tuesday night. No rain issues are expected, thus we have a nice, cool scene on tap for the fireworks across the region for New Year’s!
NICE NEW YEAR’S DAY WEDNESDAY… Mostly sunny skies will greet us for the first morning of 2020. Cloud coverage will increase throughout the day on Wednesday and there could be a few showers perhaps as early as 8PM Wednesday night. Vast majority of the rain will hold off until Thursday and Friday, however.
RAIN RETURNS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY… This will probably be a good, soaking rain across our area setting up for Thursday and Friday as an area of low pressure moves by. Early indications point to 2 to 4 inches of rain in total across the region. This means we will start the year 2020 with a likely rain surplus! That’s good news as 2019 is running a notable 5-10” rainfall total deficit compared to our climatological norms. The severe weather parameters for the rain event Thursday into Friday, for now, seem low. I’ll keep watching trends and bring you the latest over the next few days.
APP… redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the free RedZone Weather app. We post brief updates throughout each day in the app, keeping you up-to-date about the latest happenings in weather across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Once you have the free app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
See all the graphics and details in your Sunday evening #rzw forecast video. Have a nice evening! Let me know if you have any questions.