CLEARING SKIES THIS AFTERNOON; UPDATE ON SATURDAY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL… Mostly cloudy skies are in place across south Alabama and northwest Florida on this Tuesday. There have been a few areas of sprinkles and light rain this morning farther inland. Most of us will remain dry today as skies clear from northwest to southeast this afternoon. We continue to look ahead to Friday and Saturday at a round of severe weather poised to develop to our west and ultimately move into our local area. The Storm Prediction Center continues to include all of Alabama and northwest Florida in their Level 2 risk zone valid for Saturday, which is notable considering we’re still 4-5 days out from this potential severe weather event. Before we get there, we have a slew of nice, cool days ahead. Let’s look at your forecast details.
FEW SPRINKLES INLAND; CLEARING LATER THIS MORNING… Let me be clear in saying vast majority of us across the region won’t have ANY rain today, however there have been a few small, isolated areas of sprinkles and light rain across central and south central Alabama on this Tuesday morning. The cloud cover in place across much of the region will move out as a system to our northeast continues to lift away. Skies will become mostly sunny later this morning into the early afternoon hours. High temperatures will be in the mid-60s today.
NICE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY… Ample sunshine is ahead for Wednesday with high temperatures again in the mid-60s. Clouds will start to increase on Thursday, but I expect the daytime hours to be completely dry. Highs Thursday will rise into the low-70s.
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER RISK TO OUR WEST FRIDAY… The Storm Prediction Center introduced an uncommon “30% probability zone for severe weather within 25 miles of a given point,” which is what is commonly known as a Level 3 risk, valid for Friday. It is uncommon to have the Level 2 risk in place this far out. It’s highly uncommon to have a Level 3 risk, which is now in place for parts of east Texas, northern Louisiana, and southern Arkansas. This could be a significant round of severe weather for those places with a chance of strong to violent tornadoes, depending on how this system sets up. There is still a chance model guidance may back off of such a significant setup, but the trends thus far have been very concerning. It seems like the setup won’t be AS potent once it reaches our area on Saturday, although it is too early to know that for sure.
INTERMITTENT RAIN & STORMS LOCALLY ON FRIDAY… We’ll have plenty of warm, moist air in place across south Alabama and northwest Florida on Friday that will allow for the development of numerous showers and thunderstorms at times. The overall risk for severe weather Friday during the morning and afternoon hours seems low, for now. The greater risk of severe weather in our local area will happen late Friday into Saturday. High temperatures on Friday will peak in the mid-70s.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY… The entirety of Alabama, northwest Florida, and Mississippi remain involved in the Level 2 (out of 5) slight risk for strong to severe storms valid on Saturday. Keep in mind that this does NOT necessarily mean we will have rain and storms in place all day Saturday. What this risk does mean is that when we do have thunderstorms around, they could be strong or severe. The risk across our area on Saturday will be because of the potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, flash flooding, and large hail. It is still a bit too early to know details about timing and the magnitude of this event. Definitely something to monitor over the next few days. Be sure to check back with me in the days ahead for more updates on specifics.
SHOWERS SUNDAY; STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY… Rain and a few storms may linger into Sunday as our area is set to remain in somewhat of a warm, unstable sector. Unfortunately, early model trends point to yet another risk of strong storms on Monday, although it is FAR too early to know any details about what we can expect. The big takeaway in the long range of the forecast is we have multiple chances of active weather, including at least two distinct chances of strong to severe storms (one on Saturday and one on Monday). We will need to remain “weather aware” this weekend into early next week.
APP… redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the free RedZone Weather app. We post brief updates throughout each day in the app, keeping you up-to-date about the latest happenings in weather across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Once you have the free app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
See all the graphics and details in your Tuesday #rzw forecast video. Have a wonderful day!