5:41PM January 10, 2020

TORNADO RISK REMAINS ELEVATED ON SATURDAY… There remains a considerable risk of tornadoes on Saturday across much of Alabama and northwest Florida. The latest high-res model guidance continues to indicate Significant Tornado Parameter values in excess of 2 and 3 in many spots across our region. This would support a few tornadoes, including potentially a strong one or two. While there is definitely a risk of tornadoes, I would personally refrain from using the term “tornado outbreak,” as parameters do not suggest multiple, long-track, violent tornadoes at this time. Parameters DO suggest we could have a few tornadoes, both in the discrete and semi-discrete storms out ahead of the main squall line AND in the main squall line itself. Per our usual commitment (outlined extensively at redzoneweather.com/coverage), we will provide uninterrupted tornado warning coverage on Facebook Live and in the Live tab of the RedZone Weather app any time a tornado warning polygon is in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida.

The graphic attached is from the 18Z run today of the High Resolution Rapid Refresh model (HRRR). This graphic is valid at 1PM CST on Saturday, showing the elevated (2-4) STP values across Alabama and northwest Florida ahead of the advancing squall line.

DETAILED DISCUSSION FROM EARLIER… If you missed the earlier discussion posted at Noon concerning the damaging straight line wind threat, be sure to check that out here.

LIVE VIDEO LATER THIS EVENING… I am in the process of writing another detailed discussion and producing graphics for our live video update that will air between 7:30 and 9:00PM this evening. I hope you will join us for that as we dive into the data and analyze the latest trends.

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