7:18AM February 1, 2020

FEW SHOWERS THROUGH MIDDAY; STRONG STORMS LIKELY MIDWEEK… Clouds will clear out later today but not before a few areas of sprinkles and light rain happen this morning across south Alabama and northwest Florida. We will continue to dry out this evening as temperatures peak near 60 degrees in most spots. We are looking ahead to our next round of active weather setting up during the middle part of the upcoming week. That is when strong to severe storms will be possible again across our region. Quite a bit of rain (2 to 4 inches in total) is expected as well. See all the forecast details below.

DRIER THIS EVENING… All of the rain should be gone by 3PM meaning dry conditions will prevail later today. High temperatures will rebound to around 60 degrees by 2PM. Cloud cover will decrease from west to east this afternoon into the evening hours. Mostly clear skies are likely tonight into Sunday morning.

NICE, DRY, SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY… There is high confidence that Sunday will be our “best weather day” out of the next 7 days. Mostly sunny skies will happen on Sunday with temperatures making a run at 70 degrees by 2PM. The warmer temperatures won’t last long, but we will be above 55 degrees on Sunday from 10AM to 7PM.

CLOUDS INCREASE ON MONDAY… I expect Monday to be dry, but there will be increasing amounts of clouds in the sky. High temperatures will surge into the low-70s as warm, moist Gulf air moves in from the south.

SHOWERS TUESDAY AHEAD OF STORMS WEDNESDAY… Tuesday is slated to be wet and fairly warm (especially for early February) with temperatures likely reaching the mid-70s by 2PM. Scattered rain showers are likely throughout the day. Severe storms could be in progress to our west on Tuesday as the storm system sets up that will move through our region on Wednesday into Thursday.

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY… Our main forecast focus over the next few days will clearly be the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms that is setting up for Wednesday into Thursday across south Alabama and northwest Florida. While it is still a bit early for specifics, it seems like the better combination of atmospheric ingredients to support storms will come together Wednesday in the P.M hours into Thursday morning, That timing is not set in stone, but it has been a consistent idea in the model data so far.

LEVEL 2 (OUT OF 5) RISK FOR ALL OF LOCAL AREA… The Storm Prediction Center continues to include the entirety of our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida in their Level 2 (out of 5) slight risk zone valid Wednesday into early Thursday. This means that scattered instances of severe storms will be possible. Further outlook refinements and modifications may be necessary in the days ahead.

POTENTIAL HAZARDS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY… It seems that all modes of severe weather will be possible with this event, meaning tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, hail, and flash flooding will all be concerns. The specific threat for individual hazards will be able to be better assessed starting on Monday. Now is the time to get prepared, just in case tornado warnings are required. We encourage everyone to make a plan and have a way to receive urgent weather warnings as we go into the middle part of next week.

FLASH FLOOD RISK COULD BE ELEVATED… There is a chance that excessive rainfall may become an issue with this severe weather event setting up for Wednesday and Thursday. We note that the latest Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) calls for 2-4 inches of rain in total over the next 7 days, with most of that happening Wednesday into Thursday. There could be isolated higher rain amounts. This means that flash flooding will become a possibility on Wednesday.

SUNNY AND COLDER A WEEK FROM TODAY… Rain will be likely on Thursday ahead of much colder air slated to surge into our region on Thursday night into Friday behind an advancing cold front. Sunny skies are likely for Friday into Saturday (one week from today). Temperatures will be in the 50s and low-60s for afternoon highs with morning lows near 40 degrees.

APP ALERTS… Now is the time, long before we get to this severe weather potential, to set up the RedZone Weather app on your smartphone! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the iOS or Android version of the app. Once you have the app downloaded to your device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner of the app), then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

Have a great Saturday!

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