RAIN AT TIMES TODAY; STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY… Showers will be possible throughout the day and into the evening hours on this Tuesday. The risk of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to ramp up midday on Wednesday. Multiple rounds of strong storms will be possible from 11AM on Wednesday to 11AM on Thursday. The first round will likely be a complex of storms that moves onshore in coastal Alabama and northwest Florida Wednesday afternoon into the evening hours. Damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes will be concerns, in addition to the flash flooding potential. We likely will have a lull in the storms Wednesday night ahead of a squall line developing over our region Thursday morning and moving east into the Wiregrass and Florida Panhandle. The big takeaway from all of this is we need everyone to have a way to receive urgent weather warnings starting on Wednesday in the late morning hours. Rain will linger into Thursday afternoon before clearing out Thursday night. Sunny skies return on Friday and into the weekend. Let’s look at all of your forecast details.
The forecast discussion from last evening concerning the severe weather setup for Wednesday and Thursday remains on target, with updated info about the SPC convective outlook below. Info regarding the weekend forecast is also below. Please note that this discussion was produced shortly after the video, and SPC has since updated the convective outlook. Our entire local area is now back in the Level 2 risk zone as of 7AM on Tuesday.
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY… The big takeaway from our latest forecast is that we have multiple times when strong to severe thunderstorms may happen. Basically in the 24 hour period from 11AM Wednesday to 11AM Thursday, we need everyone to have a way to get urgent weather warnings. There is not a guarantee warnings will be needed, but that is a growing possibility at this point.
ROUND 1 OF 2: “MESSY STORM MODE” WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON… We will likely have quite a bit of rain and embedded thunderstorms happening across coastal Alabama and northwest Florida in the early afternoon hours of Wednesday. The better dynamics and thermodynamics for severe storms will set up during the evening hours, likely between 2PM and 7PM. This could manifest as clusters of storms or a line of storms. There even could be a big mass of rain and storms with a few supercells closer to the coast. We simply do not have a good grasp of the exact setup of how storms will develop just yet, but there is high confidence that heavy rain will happen at times on Wednesday with a few convective hazards (tornadoes and damaging winds) being possible. After this round of storms, we will probably have a lull in storm action late Wednesday evening into the early morning hours.
ROUND 2 OF 2: STRONG LINE OF STORMS ON THURSDAY MORNING… Cold air will be nudging up against warm, humid air along the advancing cold front on Thursday morning. This front will be slowly moving across our region likely around sunrise on Thursday. While timing remains a bit uncertain, a QLCS/squall line of storms is expected to develop along the cold front. This line of storms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts and a few embedded tornadoes. Once this line of storms moves through your particular locale, you’ll get an all clear and the severe weather risk will come to an end. This will likely happen in many spots from 6AM to 11AM on Thursday.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED… Regardless of if tornadoes or damaging wind gusts happen, I am increasingly concerned about the potential for flash flooding. 2 to 4 inches of rain is the forecast for most spots across the region with isolated higher amounts. The National Weather Service in Mobile has indicated a Flash Flood Watch may be issued because of this potential. Keep in mind, if you encounter a water-covered roadway, please “turn around, don’t drown.” We lose entirely too many people across America because they drive over a water-covered roadway and get swept away.
SUNNY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON… After the active weather during the middle part of the week, we get a nice Friday and nice weekend as a consolation prize. High temperatures Friday will be in the low-60s. Clearing skies are expected in the afternoon and evening hours. There should be a good amount of sunshine in the P.M. hours of Friday.
NICE, MILD WEEKEND AHEAD… Sunny skies are likely for Saturday and Sunday. High temperatures will be in the mid-60s each day with morning lows in the 40s. This is exactly where we should be, climatologically speaking, for early February. Get out and enjoy the weekend!
APP… Many, MANY updates will be posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.
See all the graphics, details, and extended discussion about the Wednesday & Thursday severe weather risk in your Tuesday #rzw forecast video. Have a great day!
