7:15PM February 4, 2020

SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE & HEAVY RAIN LIKELY WEDNESDAY P.M. INTO THURSDAY… Multiple rounds of severe weather and heavy rain are possible starting in the afternoon and evening hours of Wednesday extending into the morning hours of Thursday. The Storm Prediction Center maintains their Level 2 (out of 5) risk zone for the entirety of south Alabama and northwest Florida, meaning scattered instances of severe storms may happen. This includes a potential for tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and flash flooding.

HAPPENING NOW & WHAT TO EXPECT OVERNIGHT… Light rain is happening in spots across the region at the time this video is airing live at 7:15PM. Heavier areas of rain are currently happening near Creola, Saraland, Satsuma, Bay Minette, the Dolly Parton Bridge, and much of the I-65 corridor in Mobile and Baldwin counties. Showers will gradually move eastward in the hours ahead.

WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOWERS… Rain, and perhaps a few general thunderstorms, will be possible over west Alabama as we get into the morning hours after dawn. I am not expecting widespread severe weather issues during the morning hours of Wednesday. The atmosphere will become more prime for severe weather in the late afternoon and evening hours. Intermittent showers will be a possibility in the morning hours, however.

MULTIPLE WAVES OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY… The big takeaway from our latest forecast is that we have multiple times when strong to severe thunderstorms may happen. Basically in the 24 hour period from 11AM Wednesday to 11AM Thursday, we need everyone to have a way to get urgent weather warnings. There is not a guarantee warnings will be needed, but that is a growing possibility at this point.

FLASH FLOODING IS A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN… Based on the latest model guidance, it seems like the greatest chance for heavy rain will happen in parts of Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. NWS Mobile notes that coastal communities and areas that are more urban have a slightly greater flash flood risk compared to communities farther inland. It has been said a thousand times, but it still rings true: If you encounter a water-covered roadway, do NOT attempt to drive over it. We lose too many people across America each year to this phenomenon. Don’t risk it. Turn around, don’t drown. Rain totals of 2-5” are expected across the region.

SEVERE WEATHER RISK KICKS OFF AFTER LUNCH… The timing for this severe weather setup has been one of the most challenging forecast aspects in recent memory. Basically, we can tell you there is a 24 hour period from Noon on Wednesday to Noon on Thursday in which severe storms will be possible across south Alabama and northwest Florida. There will be two, maybe 3, distinct time periods in that 24 hour span when severe storms are MORE likely to happen. The first will be from 3PM to 7PM on Wednesday. The next will be from 9PM Wednesday to 1AM Thursday. The last will be from 6AM to Noon on Thursday. The big takeaway here is that we need everyone to have a way to receive urgent weather warnings Wednesday P.M. into Thursday A.M.

LEVEL 2 RISK CONTINUES… The Storm Prediction Center continues to include ALL of south Alabama and northwest Florida in their Level 2 (out of 5) risk zone where scattered severe storms may happen Wednesday into Thursday. This means scattered instances of tornadoes and damaging winds may happen across our region. Have a way to get the warnings Wednesday into Thursday. DO something about it and take action to get sheltered if your particular area goes under a tornado warning. Level 2 risk (valid for Wednesday into Thursday) as of Tuesday afternoon: Mobile, Pensacola, Birmingham, Montgomery, Andalusia, Opp, Florala, Georgiana, Greenville, McKenzie, Hayneville, Camden, Brewton, Atmore, Poarch, Huxford, Flomaton, Evergreen, Repton, Castleberry, Monroeville, Beatrice, Uriah, Thomasville, Grove Hill, Jackson, Coffeeville, Silas, Butler, Pennington, Livingston, McIntosh, Leroy, Citronelle, Bay Minette, Mount Vernon, Saraland, Satsuma, Prichard, Theodore, Bayou La Batre, Fort Morgan, Dauphin Island, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Perdido Key, Foley, Fairhope, Daphne, Spanish Fort, Loxley, Stockton, Century, Bratt, Walnut Hill, Molino, Gulf Breeze, Warrington, Milton, Pace, Berrydale, Jay, Navarre, Crestview, Destin, Baker, Fort Walton Beach, Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Enterprise, Dothan, Troy, Geneva, Marion, Selma, and Demopolis and surrounding areas.

SET UP APP ALERTS… We send quite a bit of Low-Level Alerts in our RedZone Weather app. The app is totally free for you! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you see the download links to your respective app store for iOS and for Android devices. Once you have the app downloaded to your smartphone or tablet device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

I will have your next full forecast video posted by 7:15AM on Wednesday. Let me know if you have specific questions in the comments below. Have a great evening!

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