RZW EXEC: STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY… RZW Exec partners, good Saturday evening! I hope all of you remain healthy and well in the midst of this coronavirus situation. We’re looking at a chance of severe weather on Tuesday. Below is the condensed information of what you need to know, followed by the long form text I will push publicly later this evening. Please let me know if you have specific questions or decision support needs. Thank you!

Overview: Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday, most likely in the daytime hours, across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Tornadoes will be possible.

Threat Level: Level 2 (out of 5) risk, meaning scattered instances of severe storms will be possible.

Where: Nearly all of south Alabama and northwest Florida is involved in this Level 2 (out of 5) risk zone. ALL parts of Baldwin, Monroe, Conecuh, Escambia (AL), Covington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties are included. In addition, much of Mobile, Clarke, and Washington counties are involved, including the cities of Mobile, Prichard, Saraland, Thomasville, and Jackson.

When: 6AM to 6PM Tuesday, March 31. This timeline may change slightly due to updated model data over the next few days.

Risks: A few tornadoes. Damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph in the stronger storms.

I will begin publishing this information publicly in the next few hours. As always, please let me know if you have any questions or have specific decision support needs. Thank you!

Below is the public, long form post…

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY… The Storm Prediction Center has added nearly all of south Alabama and all of northwest Florida into their Level 2 (out of 5) severe weather risk zone valid for Tuesday. A few tornadoes and damaging wind gusts will likely be the convective hazards with this event. Timing is still a bit uncertain due to model disagreement, but it appears this will be a daytime event for most of us across the region. The reason we have a severe weather risk setting up Tuesday is because a cold front will be diving southeastward across our region, putting nearly all of us in a warm, unstable sector out ahead of the front that could potentially support the development of strong to severe storms. There are obviously some abnormal considerations we have to look at in terms of the tornado warning sheltering guidelines and COVID-19 social distancing guidelines. Please see the paragraph (and separate linked post in the paragraph) below about that. That is your summary, below are all the details.

WHO IS INVOLVED IN LEVEL 2 RISK… Nearly all of us in south Alabama and northwest Florida are involved. Basically a line from Columbus (Georgia) to Montgomery to Selma to Chatom and points south to the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches are included. ALL parts of these counties are included in the risk zone: Monroe, Baldwin, Escambia (AL), Conecuh, Butler, Wilcox, Covington, Crenshaw, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, Walton, in addition to all counties in southeast Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. In addition, parts of Mobile, Clarke, and Washington counties in west Alabama are included in the risk zone, including the cities of Mobile, Prichard, Saraland, Satsuma, Jackson, Grove Hill, and Thomasville.

MAIN HAZARDS: A FEW TORNADOES & DAMAGING WIND GUSTS… The main concerns in the storms that can ramp up to strong and severe levels on Tuesday will be the potential for a few tornadoes and damaging straight line winds that could knock down trees across our region. It is too early to be specific on where potential specific threats may set up. That is something we’ll be trying to nail down on a more specific level in the days ahead.

SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – TUESDAY… 6AM to 6PM on Tuesday, March 31 is the 12 hour window when severe weather appears to be most likely to happen across south Alabama and northwest Florida. We will be able to get a more specific, focused timeline over the next few days as more model data firms up the details. Please have a way to receive urgent weather warnings in place BEFORE this event.

LEVEL 2 (OUT OF 5) RISK FOR LOCAL AREA… When a Level 2 (out of 5) risk is in place, that means that scattered instances of severe thunderstorms are possible, including the potential for isolated intense thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes. MOST times when we have a Level 2 (out of 5) slight risk in place, we simply do not have major issues. There have been times, however, when big issues have happened on Level 2-type days. Take the Century-Flomaton EF3 tornado that happened on February 15, 2016. That was a Level 2 risk day. That is certainly not the NORM for a Level 2 risk day, but it just goes to show that intense thunderstorms CAN happen.

COVID-19 AND TORNADO WARNING GUIDELINES… We’re in a strange time when the guidelines on what to do during a tornado warning versus what to do regarding social distancing because of COVID-19 may seem to conflict. If you, your family, or your friends use a community underground storm shelter, please take the opportunity to read the recommended guidelines established by our local National Weather Service offices and the state health department. Basically, the tornado warning takes precedence over social distancing when/if necessary as the tornado is the more immediate threat. Here is the post outlining all of that.

SET UP APP ALERTS… Now is the time, long before we get to this severe weather potential, to set up the RedZone Weather app on your smartphone! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the iOS or Android version of the app. Once you have the app downloaded to your device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner of the app), then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

NEXT UPDATE… My next detailed video update and long form text discussion will be posted on Sunday no later than 3PM. I hope you’ll tune in and join us for that. In the meantime, I’ll have quite a few updates this evening into tonight and Sunday morning in the RedZone Weather app. Let me know if you have any weather-related questions.

Have a great Saturday evening!