DAMAGING WINDS & TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN THURSDAY SEVERE STORMS… There is high confidence that a line of strong to severe thunderstorms will move across south Alabama and northwest Florida in the morning hours of Thursday. This line of storms could produce damaging straight line winds, hail, and perhaps a few tornadoes. There also could be a round of thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening hours that produce tornadoes, although confidence with this idea remains uncertain as we just don’t know exactly how strong storms will be in the morning. The strength of the line of storms in the morning will determine a lot about how the afternoon storms will behave. The Storm Prediction Center maintains the Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk for ALL of our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida.

The following details from my post this morning remain on target. See those details below.

ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE TONIGHT… There could be a few areas of rain around tonight and into Thursday morning. Tonight, the best chance of a few showers and maybe a storm or two will happen over west Alabama. Most spots will remain dry till Thursday morning.

ISOLATED STRONG POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY MORNING… The first round of strong to severe thunderstorms on Thursday will happen in the morning hours. Storms may start as early as 5AM over west Alabama, but for most of us, this round of storms will be from 7AM to 11AM. I expect this decaying squall line of storms to move in from southeast Mississippi and continue to weaken as it moves eastward across the inland parts of our region. There is a chance that during the morning hours of Thursday that coastal areas remain completely dry and miss the first round of storms entirely. I would go as far to say that is likely at this point. It’s not certain, but there is a good chance this weakening line of storms won’t be impactful for most locales. There could be a few isolated severe storms as the line rolls through, with the main concerns being damaging winds and maybe a brief tornado or two.

MORE SIGNIFICANT STORMS POSSIBLE P.M. THURSDAY… Thursday afternoon, and especially into the evening hours, is when I expect the highest potential for severe thunderstorms locally. Large, supercell thunderstorms will be the main concern. These supercells will likely fire up across southeast Mississippi or west Alabama and move across our region from west to east. The concern in these supercells will be tornadoes and large hail. Some model indications point to the potential for strong tornadoes, but there is less certainty in that idea at this moment because we just don’t know exactly HOW impactful the first round of storms in the morning will be. If the squall line in the morning “overperforms,” it could really work over the atmosphere thus leaving little instability for storms in the evening to use. There also has been some guidance showing more rain to the south across coastal areas that could limit inflow to the supercell storms to the north. Another train of thought suggests there could initially be supercells over west Alabama that converge into more of a squall line that would elevate the damaging wind risk but mitigate/lessen the overall tornado risk. All of these intricacies add to the overall uncertainty of the situation, which is why we don’t have a higher risk level (Level 4) in place as of this moment.

POTENTIAL HAZARDS – THURSDAY… All modes of severe weather will be possible, including tornadoes, damaging straight line winds, large hail, and flash flooding. The greater tornado risk will likely set up across inland counties, but at this point we cannot rule any local area out of the risk zone. We all have a risk of severe weather until late Thursday evening.

SEVERE WEATHER TIMING ON THURSDAY… There will be two distinct severe weather risk timeframes on Thursday. The first risk will be a lower-end risk of damaging winds, brief tornadoes, hail, and flash flooding from 4AM to 2PM. This lower-end risk is mainly for inland areas of south Alabama. The second, likely more significant, risk starts at 2PM and extends to 11PM for areas on the eastern side of our region. This is the window when tornadoes (maybe a strong tornado or two), damaging winds, large hail, and flash flooding will be possible. While 2PM to 11PM is the timeframe, the core of this risk will probably be from 4PM to 9PM. Big takeaway: Please have a way to get urgent weather warnings all day on Thursday and into the late evening hours! There is a good chance I’ll be able to give folks an “all clear” from west to east as this system advances out of our region throughout the evening on Thursday.

LEVEL 3 (OUT OF 5) RISK… This has not changed since my previous update last night. All locales in south Alabama and all locales in northwest Florida are involved in this Level 3 risk valid for Thursday. Level 3 risk on Thursday: Mobile, Pensacola, Andalusia, Opp, Florala, Straughn, Red Level, Wing, Greenville, Georgiana, McKenzie, Chapman, Forest Home, Evergreen, Castleberry, Lenox, Repton, Range, Belleville, Owassa, Lyeffion, Monroeville, Uriah, Beatrice, Frisco City, Excel, Mexia, Perdue Hill, Peterman, Grove Hill, Thomasville, Jackson, Coffeeville, Whatley, Chatom, Leroy, Wagerville, McIntosh, Millry, Atmore, Poarch, Huxford, Flomaton, Brewton, Damascus, Bay Minette, Stockton, Stapleton, Loxley, Daphne, Fairhope, Foley, Magnolia Springs, Elberta, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Wilmer, Citronelle, Mt. Vernon, Saraland, Satsuma, Creola, Prichard, Theodore, Bayou La Batre, Dauphin Island, Century, Walnut Hill, Bratt, Molino, Ensley, Gonzalez, Cantonment, Warrington, Pensacola Beach, Gulf Breeze, Navarre, Milton, Pace, Jay, Chumuckla, Brownsdale, Berrydale, Whitfield, Munson, Crestview, Laurel Hill, Baker, Milligan, Destin, Fort Walton Beach, Mary Esther, Niceville, and surrounding areas. These are just a few of the locales involved. If you don’t see your specific town and you’re in south Alabama or northwest Florida, you’re still included in this Level 3 (out of 5) risk.

LEVEL 3 RISK TO OUR NORTH & EAST… This also has not changed since my previous update last night. Much of central and southeast Alabama, Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle is also involved in this Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk zone: Birmingham, Montgomery, Auburn, Opelika, Dothan, Geneva, Samson, Slocomb, Enterprise, Elba, Daleville, Abbeville, Eufaula, Union Springs, Troy, Hayneville, Selma, Camden, Linden, Sweet Water, Demopolis, Marion, Centreville, Clanton, Prattville, Wetumpka, Alexander City, Valley, Lanett, Tuskegee, Rockford, Talladega, Heflin, Lake Martin, Hoover, Leeds, Roanoke, Marianna, Panama City, Seaside, DeFuniak Springs, Port St. Joe, Tallahassee, Atlanta (GA), Macon (GA), Valdosta (GA), Savannah (GA), Jacksonville (FL), and surrounding areas.

WARM & SUNNY ON FRIDAY… We get a well-deserved long break from severe weather starting on Friday! Yep, that’s right, Friday. The severe weather risk for Sunday has been stripped from the forecast (more about that below). Sunny skies are expected on Friday with high temperatures in the mid-80s.

FEW SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING… There is a chance we could have a few passing showers and general (non-severe) thunderstorms on Saturday, particularly in the morning hours. Some communities probably will have no rain at all while others may have a passing storm. There could be some thunder involved at times but this will definitely be a round of showers and storms where the “bark is worse than the bite” for many places. Cloud-to-ground lightning could happen in the stronger thunderstorms but severe weather is not expected. Partly cloudy skies are expected on Saturday during the afternoon hours with high temperatures in the mid-80s.

NO MORE SEVERE WEATHER RISK ON SUNDAY… I am thrilled to conclude the forecast sections of this post by being able to report that we have stripped out the chance of showers and thunderstorms for Sunday. There is now no longer a severe weather risk for Sunday at this point! Some earlier model guidance pointed to a round of storms, but that is now off the table. Sunday into Monday will be sunny and warm with no rain expected. High temperatures will be in the low- to mid-80s with morning lows in the 50s. Next week shows the potential for a few showers and perhaps some thunderstorms on Wednesday, April 29.

TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!

APP ALERTS… Now is the time, long before we get to this severe weather potential, to set up the RedZone Weather app on your smartphone! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the iOS or Android version of the app. Once you have the app downloaded to your device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner of the app), then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

I’ll have updates overnight in the RedZone Weather app with your next detailed discussion being posted by 7AM on Facebook and in the app UNLESS we need live severe weather coverage before that. Join me either way, on Thursday morning. See you then!