Reliable weather model showing about a 50% chance for a strong tropical storm or hurricane to develop in the Gulf of Mexico later this week.
The 2020 Hurricane season is officially underway June 1st and may get off to a big start.
50-ensembles (ECMWF 18z) pic.twitter.com/j1SztkxxKx
— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) June 1, 2020
The 12z GFS tracked the vortmax making a near full cyclonic loop around the CAG, going from the East Pacific, to Bay of Campeche & back again! pic.twitter.com/Avonfco02x
— Philippe Papin (@pppapin) June 1, 2020
TROPICAL MISCHIEF IN GULF LATER THIS WEEK; 50% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT… Chances continue to increase that a tropical storm will develop in the west-central Gulf of Mexico later this week. The National Hurricane Center has indicated there is now a 50% chance of this development happening, up from a 30% chance last night. There is a chance that local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida may happen during the upcoming weekend, although it is still too early to give specifics about what to expect. The big headline on this Sunday remains: Be aware that there may be a tropical storm in the Gulf in 5-7 days. Depending on where the system ends up, local impacts may be possible. This is something we’ll be carefully monitoring over the next few days. Locally, we’ve got a nice Sunday evening and Monday on tap with mostly sunny skies expected each day. P.M. pop-up thunderstorms will return as we get into Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of higher rain chances toward the weekend. Let’s look at all of your forecast details.
MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AND MONDAY… Perfect pool weather! That’s how I would describe today as high temperatures are peaking in the low-90s across the region with plenty of sunshine. Don’t forget to wear sunscreen if you’re going to be outside this evening or on Monday. The UV Index is sky high in the 11-12 range locally. Rain chances are near zero today and remain very low for Monday. While I can’t completely rule out a rogue shower or storm on Monday, I expect vast majority of us to remain dry and hot with high temps again in the low-90s.
P.M. STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY… The classic pop-up thunderstorms of summer will return on Tuesday and Wednesday, primarily in the afternoon and early evening hours. Widespread severe weather is not expected, but you know the drill: These pop-up storms may produce localized areas of very heavy rain, cloud-to-ground lightning, and even small hail in the strongest of the storms. High temperatures midweek will be in the upper-80s with morning lows in the upper-60s.
50% CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN GULF LATER THIS WEEK… The National Hurricane Center continues to issue Special Tropical Weather Outlooks due to a growing chance of tropical development later this week in the west-central Gulf of Mexico. From the NHC midday discussion: “Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Amanda, centered inland over southeastern Guatemala, is forecast weaken into a remnant low or dissipate over Guatemala or southeastern Mexico by tonight. However, the remnants of Amanda are expected to move northwestward within a broader area of disturbed weather, possibly emerging over the southeastern Bay of Campeche on Monday. If the remnants move back over water, environmental conditions appear conducive to support some redevelopment of the system while it moves little through the middle of this week. Regardless of redevelopment, heavy rainfall is likely to continue over portions of southern Mexico during the next few days.” By the way, this system would almost certainly take the name of “Cristobal,” which is the next tropical name in our local Atlantic Basin. Since the low-level center of Tropical Storm Amanda faded away, this technically will be a “new” system, even though the influence of Amanda is certainly noted in the development process of what will likely be Cristobal.
LOCAL IMPACTS – TO BE DETERMINED… Let me stress: There is a chance that NO local impacts across south Alabama and northwest Florida ever happen because of this system. We still are a few days out from knowing conclusively whether direct local impacts will happen. Uncertainty at this phase of development IS expected and details will come more into focus over the next few days. The MOST likely scenario, as of Sunday, May 31, is that we will have slightly increased rain chances during the upcoming weekend. There could be a chance of a few stronger storms involved, depending on the exact track of what will likely be Tropical Storm Cristobal at that point. Please check back with me over the next few days as we continue to get more information.
REST OF ATLANTIC BASIN REMAINS QUIET… The area of low pressure we’ve been tracking well southeast of Bermuda and north of the Lesser Antilles has moved into an environment that no longer favors tropical or subtropical storm development. Other than the remnants of Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Amanda, currently situated over the mountainous terrain of central America, the remainder of the Atlantic basin is quiet.
OFFICIAL KICKOFF OF HURRICANE SEASON TONIGHT… Monday, June 1 marks the formal beginning of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season. We’ve already had Tropical Storms Arthur and Bertha along the East Coast of the U.S. The next tropical cyclone name on the Atlantic Basin Naming List is “Cristobal.” NOAA and other agencies that issue hurricane season outlooks are suggesting the potential for an above average hurricane season, with 13 to 19 named storms expected, 6 to 10 hurricanes, and 3 to 6 major hurricanes. The “official” kickoff of hurricane season is Monday, June 1. The season will end on November 30. Stay with us throughout hurricane season. We’ll bring you the latest information in a reliable and concise way. No hype, no hyperbole, just the facts, per our long-standing policy.
APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
See all the details in your Sunday #rzw forecast video. I’ll have your next detailed forecast video posted by 7:15AM on Monday. Have a nice evening!
1:55 PM EDT Special TWO: There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation over the Bay of Campeche by midweek. Heavy rainfall will continue across southern Mexico and portions of Central America https://t.co/tW4KeFW0gB pic.twitter.com/Sx6v4bkdL7
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) May 31, 2020
We could see the rare Pacific to Atlantic cross over with Tropical storm #Amanda. The new storm would get a new name from the Atlantic side if it reforms. Here's a map of cross over storms from Atlantic-Pacific or vice versa. pic.twitter.com/KXtgaWUmnG
— Brad Panovich (@wxbrad) May 31, 2020
POSSIBLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN WESTERN GULF NEXT WEEK… There is a growing chance that a tropical storm may form in the western or central Gulf of Mexico late next week. We’re now within 6-7 days of when this development may happen. Model trends have consistently suggested this possibility and confidence in this idea is pretty high. The signal from various weather models is unusually high for this time of year, meaning now is the time to start thinking about tropical storm preparedness. There is still plenty of information that we just do not know, like exactly where this potential tropical system will end up. Could it be a threat to the local area in Alabama and northwest Florida? Yes, it could. Is that a likelihood at this point? No, it’s simply one of MANY potential outcomes. The big headline as of Saturday, May 30: Be aware that we could have tropical development in the Gulf next week.
ACTIVE HURRICANE SEASON POSSIBLE… We’ve already had Tropical Storms Arthur and Bertha along the East Coast of the U.S. The next tropical cyclone name on the Atlantic Basin Naming List is “Cristobal.” NOAA and other agencies that issue hurricane season outlooks are suggesting the potential for an above average hurricane season, with 13 to 19 named storms expected, 6 to 10 hurricanes, and 3 to 6 major hurricanes. The “official” kickoff of hurricane season is Monday, June 1. The season will end on November 30.
APP… redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the free RedZone Weather app. We post brief updates throughout each day in the app, keeping you up-to-date about the latest happenings in weather across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Once you have the free app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
I’ll have more details about this tropical development potential in the Sunday evening forecast video that will be posted by 3PM. Have a nice Saturday evening!
Clouds are bubbling up across the Deep South, but so far our local radar across south Alabama & NW Florida remains quiet. Most spots locally are in the mid- to upper-80s.
A few pop-up showers & storms will be possible over the next few hours. pic.twitter.com/rzCOzeANje
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) May 30, 2020
NHC continues to monitor a low pressure system over the central Atlantic about 500 miles east-southeast of Bermuda. This system has a medium chance of becoming a short-lived subtropical depression this weekend. For details, visit https://t.co/tW4KeFW0gB pic.twitter.com/xq3sXbepXq
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) May 30, 2020
FEW STORMS TODAY; DRIER PATTERN BEGINS SUNDAY… Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible today, mainly across coastal areas of Alabama and northwest Florida. Most areas will likely be without rain today, but where showers and storms develop, there could be localized areas of heavy rain. Severe weather is not expected today. High temperatures will be near 90° in most spots. Drier conditions are ahead for Sunday into Monday.
Have a great Saturday!